Model S Factory Capacity?

[vgrinshpun]

Thanks Vgrin, I recall a lot of good tidbits from the Nat Geo video too, maybe I need to re-watch it. Is that where the 100,000 came from? If they are doing 2 8 hour shifts, then by your numbers they are hitting 1000 cars a week which would be exciting. I am guessing that the batteries could be bottlenecked due to orders from Mercedes or Toyota programs, or maybe having to adjust orders from Panasonic to meet higher demand.

I do not remember where the Gilbert Passin 100,000 cars/year quote comes from, but certain that this is what he said - I was quite surprised by it at the time.
Regarding the 2 8 shifts, though, if true it does not mean that Tesla is producing 1000 cars per week, rather that they are producing 500, but their efficiency is not where it is supposed to be.

The main thing is, however, that I am far from sure that they are actually operating 2 8 hour shifts or 24/7 for battery production in the sustained mode.
Would be nice if somebody could provide more details on this.

 

[tander]

I do not remember where the Gilbert Passin 100,000 cars/year quote comes from, but certain that this is what he said - I was quite surprised by it at the time.
Regarding the 2 8 shifts, though, if true it does not mean that Tesla is producing 1000 cars per week, rather that they are producing 500, but their efficiency is not where it is supposed to be.

The main thing is, however, that I am far from sure that they are actually operating 2 8 hour shifts or 24/7 for battery production in the sustained mode.
Would be nice if somebody could provide more details on this.

Well if you remember please drop it in the thread, I'm going to try and watch the Nat Geo video this weekend so maybe it's in there.

I thought you were saying that right now you heard that they are doing 500 a week on 8 hour shifts, which would roughly imply that they could do 1000 a week on 16 hrs a day, but maybe I misinterpreted. It would be great if a Tesla employee could weigh in just to assuage our curiousity, but they would probably get fired for that so until then I guess we just have to make educated guesses.

 

[Bipo]

A factory of that size can easily produce one car each sixty seconds (or even a few less). That gives us an anual production of about 500,000 to 700,000 cars, operating 24/7.

 

[vgrinshpun]

A factory of that size can easily produce one car each sixty seconds (or even a few less). That gives us an anual production of about 500,000 to 700,000 cars, operating 24/7.

Model S/X production line takes approximately 20% of the Tesla factory space. It is designed to produce around 100,000 cars per year when fully utilized (24Hrs, 7 days a week).

In future (2016-2017 according to the latest from Elon Musk) the rest of the factory will be used to build higher volume, smaller premium sedan (and, possibly SUV). The production line for this platform does not exist yet.

 

[aronth5]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NUMMI

There has been lots of numbers about Numi capacity when Toyota and GM produced cars there. Usually the capacity number mostly commonly mentioned is 500k cars/yr. But Wikipedia states: "Up to May 2010, NUMMI built an average of 6000 vehicles a week, or nearly eight million cars and trucks since opening in 1984". That is 312,000 per year which is lower than most estimates referenced on TMC. Regardless of the actual number Tesla has more than enough space to produce as many cars as needed.

 

[Bipo]

Model S/X production line takes approximately 20% of the Tesla factory space. It is designed to produce around 100,000 cars per year when fully utilized (24Hrs, 7 days a week).

In future (2016-2017 according to the latest from Elon Musk) the rest of the factory will be used to build higher volume, smaller premium sedan (and, possibly SUV). The production line for this platform does not exist yet.

Then if 20% is 100,000, seems logic that 100% is 500,000

 

[vgrinshpun]

On the subject of capacity of the factories, it looks like we can expand subject of this thread:

"Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk says he would consider locating a second automotive assembly plant in Texas."

The article in Automotive News indicated that possible future factory in Texas could built Tesla pickup truck.

Front Page -- Automotive News

 

[Robert.Boston]

I heard this as a statement to gain support in the Texas legislature, "You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours." "would consider" is a pretty weak grammatical construct.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I heard this as a statement to gain support in the Texas legislature, "You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours." "would consider" is a pretty weak grammatical construct.

On one hand, kind of agree with you that statement is hypothetical.

On another hand, though, I do believe that Tesla is at least thinking about the second automotive assembly plant. Texas would not be a bad place for building second plant, and Elon Musk seem to be seriously considering locating second Space X plant there (House Appropriations - Elon Musk Extended QA - March 8, 2013 - YouTube). So why not have second Tesla plant there as well?

 

[Robert.Boston]

Let me flip that around: what possible benefit is there to a facility in Texas? The Fremont facility has ample room for many years of growth. The transport cost of cars from Texas to the east coast isn't going to be greatly different than from California. Texas has no automotive supply infrastructure.

If Tesla were indeed to open a second facility, it would make more sense to build one in the EU, saving the high cost in delay and shipping of moving cars from California there. Or in China, to crack that rapidly growing luxury-car market.

 

[tander]

Let me flip that around: what possible benefit is there to a facility in Texas? The Fremont facility has ample room for many years of growth. The transport cost of cars from Texas to the east coast isn't going to be greatly different than from California. Texas has no automotive supply infrastructure.

If Tesla were indeed to open a second facility, it would make more sense to build one in the EU, saving the high cost in delay and shipping of moving cars from California there. Or in China, to crack that rapidly growing luxury-car market.

Yes I think SpaceX would provide a lot more convincing leverage than Tesla could at present. And when Tesla is ready for another plant it would make a lot more sense in Europe or Asia, although I think it will be kind of a bummer when we can't call Tesla an "all-American" company. Actually, when I test drove a few months ago, the Tesla employee that came with us said Tesla is building a plant in China. I think he was probably misinformed but when they are ready China makes a lot of sense.

 

[DrDave]

Texas has no automotive supply infrastructure

There are automakers in Texas - Toyota in San Antonio and GM in Arlington.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Let me flip that around: what possible benefit is there to a facility in Texas? The Fremont facility has ample room for many years of growth. The transport cost of cars from Texas to the east coast isn't going to be greatly different than from California. Texas has no automotive supply infrastructure.

If Tesla were indeed to open a second facility, it would make more sense to build one in the EU, saving the high cost in delay and shipping of moving cars from California there. Or in China, to crack that rapidly growing luxury-car market.

I am wondering how many pickup trucks will Tesla be able to sell in EU?

Tesla had plans for electric pickup truck going back some time, as it was mentioned by several Tesla principals.

The US market for pickup trucks is huge - about 60% larger than for mid-size family sedans (2012 US sales for best selling sedan - Toyota Camry - 404,886; 2012 US sales for best selling pickup truck - Ford F series - 645,316). Another comparison to make is with best selling mid-size luxury sedan - Mercedes E Series, which sold 65,171 cars in 2012.

Targeting pickup truck market in US would be very smart and fitting for Tesla for couple of reasons. One is the combination of relatively high price and large volume (relatively easy entry point). Another is the impact displacing low mpg vehicles could have on environment.

I believe that capacity of the Fremont factory is fully allocated in Tesla plans towards production of Model S/X (about 100,000 in 3 to 4 years) and Generation III platform vehicles (sedan+SUV; starting at about 100,000 in 4 years, ramping up to 400,000 in about 8 years). I do not think that Fremont plant will have capacity for producing pickup trucks.

While EM statement about factory in Texas is hypothetical, I do not think it is pure lip service.

And who said that the two (pickup plant in Texas and passenger car/SUV plant in EU or Asia) are mutually exclusive? Tesla is not known for thinking on a small scale...

 

[vgrinshpun]

From Tesla messes with Texas

Oh also, Texas is truck country, and Musk said in four or five years a truck with the Tesla badge could also be built.
“I have this idea for a really advanced electric truck that has the performance of a sports car but actually more towing power and more carrying capacity than a gasoline or diesel truck of comparable size,” Musk said. “That could be really cool, and I think that would probably make sense to do that at a new plant.”

 

[jerry33]

I you are going to make a pick-me-up plant, Texas is the place to do it. Toyota did.

 

[igotzzoom]

Texas actually makes a lot of sense from a logistical/distribution standpoint. It is centrally located, generally business-friendly (with the exception of the state dealer association), and as noted, is a major market for pickups. Ironically, although it's known as an "Oil Town" I've heard Houston is actually very progressive in a number of areas. I'd imagine with the high concentration of geologists/engineers/scientists it might be.