Model S Factory Ramp - Speculation

[swegman]

Getting conflicting info.

My reservation is S920 and P258. I was told by Tesla that I would be contacted in June with delivery of the signature model in late August/early september, and the production model a month later. If S737 doesnt get delivered until October, I'm not getting mine by early September, and tesla is not going to produce 5000 cars this year.

 

[digitaltim]

@swegnan,

I know there have been many models on forecasting production rate. If we simply assume that Tesla wants to be at 1.7k/month (20k/year) starting in January and that they will get there linearly between June and year end, they will be adding approximately ~200/month to the rate...that puts both of us in the August timeframe. It also gets them to the '12 year end goal of 5k.

I have my fingers crossed that they are underpromising and will overdeliver (per others comments).

--Tim

 

[digitaltim]

@swegman

If production does not start enforce until July, the Sept/Oct estimate holds.

--Tim

 

[tdelta1000]

Getting conflicting info.

tesla is not going to produce 5000 cars this year.

Is that speculation or did a TM rep tell you that?

 

[strider]

Tesla has yet to truly push the "ON" button on the assembly line. The dates they are giving out in contracts are "no later than" dates since they are signing a contract they are legally liable to deliver by that date. I'm sure they are sandbagging the delivery dates in case something goes wrong they have time to fix it and not breach hundreds of contracts(my company does this all the time). Once July rolls around and they are running the full assembly line they will be better able to forecast dates. If nothing goes wrong, swegman's dates are likely to hold.

I can tell you that through a contact at one of Tesla's suppliers, I heard they are hoping to deliver Founders cars in June, implying they are ahead of schedule.

 

[Jason S]

Tesla rep told me about a week ago they would be sending out about 100 emails each Tuesday.

If that is steady state, then that makes 400+ cars per month. The 5000+ by end of year still appears achievable assuming the ramp-up happens around August.

And good news that the SSL list has been processed. Should be about 25% of the way through the total list of US Signatures.

 

[jcstp]

Model S delivery next month?
This representative says YES

 

[MarkR]

Model S delivery next month?
This representative says YES

Very nice to hear from a Tesla rep that that deliveries will start in JUNE, but wonder if that might only include the founders series. Maybe I'm a bit hesitant to accept news about about US deliveries from a UK rep.

 

[AnOutsider]

Maybe I'm a bit hesitant to accept news about about US deliveries from a UK rep.

I was thinking the same. Even if founders start in June however, remember that Elon said deliveries by July (and some here speculated that meant 7/31/2012), so they'd still be ahead of their (public) schedule.

 

[smoothoperator]

Well, you could have passed it on! You still should.

I posted my number in that thread but it was never added to the tally (maybe time to add that thread wiki as requested in the site feedback forum), water under the bridge at this point...Already configured and now the waiting game begins

 

[Robert.Boston]

I was thinking the same. Even if founders start in June however, remember that Elon said deliveries by July (and some here speculated that meant 7/31/2012), so they'd still be ahead of their (public) schedule.

I've speculated for a while that there will be a strong push towards getting at least one paying customer one car by June 30 so that the Q2 10-Q can state "The Company began deliveries of the Model S." That will be a red-letter day, and there's every reason to have it in Q2 if possible.

 

[jcstp]

Very nice to hear from a Tesla rep that that deliveries will start in JUNE, but wonder if that might only include the founders series. Maybe I'm a bit hesitant to accept news about about US deliveries from a UK rep.

Tesla to deliver Model S ahead of schedule in June

He was not so badly informed ;-)

 

[smorgasbord]

I've speculated for a while that there will be a strong push towards getting at least one paying customer one car by June 30 so that the Q2 10-Q can state "The Company began deliveries of the Model S."

Well, the shareholder letter says Q2 revenue will be $10million higher due to Model S deliveries in June. At $100K per Sig, that's 100 cars delivered in June. That's 3X more than I expected inthe first month.


Edit: In the conference call, Elon said it will be less than a hundred cars in June, more like tens of cars. And it wasn't Q2 revenue, it was bottom of yearly revenue estimate. So, we don't know where the $10million really comes from.

 

[MarkR]

Tesla to deliver Model S ahead of schedule in June

He was not so badly informed ;-)

Looks like we have so many threads that are intertwined that it is similar to spaghetti !

 

[jerry33]

Looks like we have so many threads that are intertwined that it is similar to spaghetti !

But since everyone reads every thread every day, they'll figure it out.

 

[grisnjam]

But since everyone reads every thread every day, they'll figure it out.

+1 for sure

 

[WhiteKnight]

I think, now that the journalists and analysts have driven the Model S, we've learned more about production.

I read that (sorry for no sources):

• They were producing 1 car per day pre 6/22
• They are stepping it up to 2 cars per day this week
• They will go to 10 cars per day in July
• They will hit 80 cars per day in November - which is a 20,000 per year run rate
• They will deliver "tens" of cars this quarter
• They will deliver 1,000 cars in Q3
• They will deliver 4,000 cars in Q4
• Also that they were hiring more factory workers in August

So I think the production schedule is looking like:

	Per Day	Per Month
June	1-2	10-20
Q2 Total		10-20
July	10	200
August	20	400
September	20	400
Q3 Total		1,000
October	40	800
November	80	1,600
December	80	1,600
Q4 Total		4,000
TOTAL 2012		~5,020

I remember somebody else talking about this on another thread but I cannot find it now. Basically Signatures get delivered in Q3 and the Production cars begin deliveries in Q4.

 

[jomo25]

Which cars delivered when?

 

[Arnold Panz]

I think, now that the journalists and analysts have driven the Model S, we've learned more about production.

I read that (sorry for no sources):

• They were producing 1 car per day pre 6/22
• They are stepping it up to 2 cars per day this week
• They will go to 10 cars per day in July
• They will hit 80 cars per day in November - which is a 20,000 per year run rate
• They will deliver "tens" of cars this quarter
• They will deliver 1,000 cars in Q3
• They will deliver 4,000 cars in Q4
• Also that they were hiring more factory workers in August

So I think the production schedule is looking like:

	Per Day	Per Month
June	1-2	10-20
Q2 Total		10-20
July	10	200
August	20	400
September	20	400
Q3 Total		1,000
October	40	800
November	80	1,600
December	80	1,600
Q4 Total		4,000
TOTAL 2012		~5,020

I remember somebody else talking about this on another thread but I cannot find it now. Basically Signatures get delivered in Q3 and the Production cars begin deliveries in Q4.

I think it was me. I posted in the context of the pre-MVPA dates that Tesla is providing, which are roughly a month later than what you've suggested in your chart. I agree with your analysis, but apparently Tesla reps (including George B) were telling people over the weekend that the ramp upwould be painfully slow, and not to expect the car earlier than projected. My point was, if that's try then there is no realistic way to get to 5000 cars in 2012. You've proven he same point in a slightly different way.

 

[Doug_G]

They are now saying that Canadian cars will start being delivered in October, which is consistent with the ramp rate in your table. They will deliver the 1000 US Signatures first.