Model S Factory Ramp - Speculation

[action7981]

This is my best guess. I don't think they will be at 80 per day from Nov. 1, but more likely at some point during the month of Nov.

	Manufactured	Delivered	Manufactured Cumulative	Delivered Cumulative
June	30	10	30	10
July	145	145	175	155
August	315	315	490	470
September	560	560	1050	1030
October	990	990	2040	2020
November	1380	1380	3420	3400
December	1600	1600	5020	5000

 

[Kevin Harney]

This is my best guess. I don't think they will be at 80 per day from Nov. 1, but more likely at that point during the month of Nov.

	Manufactured	Delivered	Manufactured Cumulative	Delivered Cumulative
June	30	10	30	10
July	145	145	175	155
August	315	315	490	470
September	560	560	1050	1030
October	990	990	2040	2020
November	1380	1380	3420	3400
December	1600	1600	5020	5000

Seems quite backwards to me. You have a 50% increase in the early months and only about a 10% in the later months. This ramping quickly in the beginning and slowly later on ..... am I missing something ?!?!??!?

 

[Tommy]

I think Tesla may have given us a clue to where they will be in the production numbers by their reference to the grey leather option not going into production until November. My take, all N.A. signature units completed by Oct 31st (1200) with November the beginning of the regular production run. With an 80/day run rate that should produce another 3k units completed in the November/December time frame.

 

[Kevin Harney]

I think Tesla may have given us a clue to where they will be in the production numbers by their reference to the grey leather option not going into production until November. My take, all N.A. signature units completed by Oct 31st (1200) with November the beginning of the regular production run. With an 80/day run rate that should produce another 3k units completed in the November/December time frame.

1,000 + 3,000 does not = 5,000

 

[Arnold Panz]

I think Tesla may have given us a clue to where they will be in the production numbers by their reference to the grey leather option not going into production until November. My take, all N.A. signature units completed by Oct 31st (1200) with November the beginning of the regular production run. With an 80/day run rate that should produce another 3k units completed in the November/December time frame.

Do we know how many days a week the factory is operating? I was assuming 5 days/week, but if it's going 6 days a week, that could potentially explain the slower ramp up if they're able to do 52 days in Nov/Dec as opposed to 41 if they're only operating 5 days a week. At 80 cars per day, that could justify the dates given to customers so far as somewhat realistic and not just managing expectations.

 

[Tommy]

1,000 + 3,000 does not = 5,000

Well, I stated 1200 produced for the signatures, and certainly 3000 must get produced first to get to 5000.:wink:

 

[action7981]

Seems quite backwards to me. You have a 50% increase in the early months and only about a 10% in the later months. This ramping quickly in the beginning and slowly later on ..... am I missing something ?!?!??!?

To me it would seem that it will be easier to go from 10/day to 20/day than it will be to go from 40/day to 80/day. Again, just my best guess.

 

[WhiteKnight]

Do we know how many days a week the factory is operating? I was assuming 5 days/week, but if it's going 6 days a week, that could potentially explain the slower ramp up if they're able to do 52 days in Nov/Dec as opposed to 41 if they're only operating 5 days a week. At 80 cars per day, that could justify the dates given to customers so far as somewhat realistic and not just managing expectations.

They certainly could work weekends, extended hours, double shifts etc.

I think they are trying to beat everyone's expectations and a big part of that is telling people the worst case like it's the base case. So if you think you can deliver cars in June and your (reasonable) worst case is July 31st then tell people July so that if you hit your June target you look like a hero.

Like Action7981 points out, the numbers we hear about are cars manufactured and not cars delivered. The 400 cars produced in the week between Christmas and New Years are not going to be delivered in 2012. So again I'm hoping they actually ramp to 80 cars per day in October and/or expand production from 5 days per week to 7 days per week (or similar) to hit Q4 goals (and deliver a nice Christmas to a bunch of folks).

 

[Kevin Harney]

Well, I stated 1200 produced for the signatures, and certainly 3000 must get produced first to get to 5000.:wink:

Well 1,200 + 3,000 does not = 5,000 either LOL

 

[Lyon]

To me it would seem that it will be easier to go from 10/day to 20/day than it will be to go from 40/day to 80/day. Again, just my best guess.

Yes, the % increase will go down as the output numbers go up, or at least it makes sense that it would happen that way. Percentages are trixy little buggers.

 

[roblab]

This is my best guess. I don't think they will be at 80 per day from Nov. 1, but more likely at some point during the month of Nov.

	Manufactured	Delivered	Manufactured Cumulative	Delivered Cumulative
June	30	10	30	10
July	145	145	175	155
August	315	315	490	470
September	560	560	1050	1030
October	990	990	2040	2020
November	1380	1380	3420	3400
December	1600	1600	5020	5000

The problem I see is that, as SS #77, I would expect by your table to be middle or so of July. But Tesla tells me they will send out notice *30 days in advance*, and it is the end of June, and no notice. So it looks like either you might be a little exuberant with your planning, or (Please, please) Tesla will give notices out LESS than 30 days in advance.

I wonder (aloud) what owner rank has gotten notices to pick up their cars within 30 days. That you don't hear about.

 

[ibcs]

Being #121, I wish some signature people would get their 30 day notice. Anticipation is getting to the point of ridiculous.

 

[MarkR]

I think that there is a drain on the production timetable that has yet to be factored in. It is probably a sure bet that each of the stores will get 2-4 cars for the showroom and at least 2 cars for test drives. Since TM hopes to rack up a lot more reservation during the frenzied roll out, these cars are apt to be 'delivered' first.

 

[vfx]

I think that there is a drain on the production timetable that has yet to be factored in. It is probably a sure bet that each of the stores will get 2-4 cars for the showroom and at least 2 cars for test drives. Since TM hopes to rack up a lot more reservation during the frenzied roll out, these cars are apt to be 'delivered' first.

Right. And press pool cars. Could be 20 or even thirty.

And what about the other 32 founder's cars?

 

[Jason S]

I imagine founder cars could go in with the Sigs and press + showroom cars should be part of the production run.

Tho with the differences between production and Sig being relatively minor, except for colors, could fold some of those in.

I'd worry about showroom having ready-to-roll cars. The temptation would be quite high to sell those right off the showroom floor.

Oh, and ($%* the press. Buncha whiners wanting free cars.

 

[MarkR]

Oh, and ($%* the press. Buncha whiners wanting free cars.

I think it's safe to say that TM will not "($%* the press." TM has done an impressive job of playing the press and getting them to provide the advertising that most car companies have to pay for. It kinda looks like TM has given enough access to the mainstream press to whet their appetite and has given greater access to press outlets that are known to be friendly to EVs and Tesla.

 

[Jason S]

I'm good with the press folks that haven't tossed in unwarranted editorializing having access to production intent vehicles for a while. But another 20-30 cars inside of the next 2 months... not so good with that. Sending the demo cars on to the press pool after the demo events are done? That would be just fine, imho.

 

[VolkerP]

"Get Amped" tour cars, demos, founders and press cars are part of "produce 5000 cars in 2012". It doesn't equate to 1200 North American Sigs and 3800 general production cars. While that may be a hardship for U.S. P-3799, Tesla still will hit the target.

 

[WhiteKnight]

"Get Amped" tour cars, demos, founders and press cars are part of "produce 5000 cars in 2012". It doesn't equate to 1200 North American Sigs and 3800 general production cars. While that may be a hardship for U.S. P-3799, Tesla still will hit the target.

My understanding is that Tesla has promised investors to sell 5,000 cars not just produce 5,000.

 

[Beavis]

My understanding is that Tesla has promised investors to sell 5,000 cars not just produce 5,000.

They promised to deliver 5,000 cars?