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Model S HW 2.0 to HW 3.0 Upgrades? (Not HW2.5 or Model 3 upgrades to HW3)

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You won't see it. Tesla is scrambling to find a solution without having to replace MCUs. I could very well see this ending in admitting FSD is not possible with MCU1 so you either pay for the upgrade or they will refund you the FSD cost

Or they bite the bullet and replace the MCU1.

I'll put money on the table that you're wrong though. If (big IF) the MCU1 is incompatible with the FSD computer (yet to be proven other than by speculation), then they will develop an adapter to go in between the two.

Things that will never happen:
- Refunding money paid for FSD
- Replacing MCU1's with MCU2's
- Refusing to replace AP2 computer with FSD computer

They'll figure out a way to do it (either make them compatible or develop an adapter). I have zero doubt.
 
Or they bite the bullet and replace the MCU1.

I'll put money on the table that you're wrong though. If (big IF) the MCU1 is incompatible with the FSD computer (yet to be proven other than by speculation), then they will develop an adapter to go in between the two.

Things that will never happen:
- Refunding money paid for FSD
- Replacing MCU1's with MCU2's
- Refusing to replace AP2 computer with FSD computer

They'll figure out a way to do it (either make them compatible or develop an adapter). I have zero doubt.

I mostly agree with you, though the incompatibility is more than just speculation. That came from Tesla service. It’s certainly plausible they were wrong(wouldn’t be the first time), but it’s not just baseless speculation that people here came up with.

I do suspect that if they truly can’t do it with MCU1, by any means, they’ll just replace MCU1. Agree that refunding(or, obviously, requiring we pay for the MCU upgrade to unlock features we already paid for) would be a complete disaster, so I don’t see them doing that.
 
I really wish they would just give the MCU1 cars MCU2.. We all do.. but they would keep that fleet so much more updated and would not have to worry about MCU1 w AP3 MCU2 w AP3 compatibility errors which we are already getting plague'd by.. wishful thinking
 
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I mostly agree with you, though the incompatibility is more than just speculation. That came from Tesla service.

I do not think this word “incompatible” means what people think it does, and I do think using it in this case is pure speculation.

To me, “incompatible” means “never gonna work”. Fundamental architectural or physical differences that can’t be overcome vs. “we haven’t developed/tested/certified the interface yet because it made sense to start elsewhere”. Nobody knows what is actually the issue, though common sense makes me believe it’s the latter.

Service centers don’t know jack. That’s well established at this point.
 
Or they bite the bullet and replace the MCU1.

I'll put money on the table that you're wrong though. If (big IF) the MCU1 is incompatible with the FSD computer (yet to be proven other than by speculation), then they will develop an adapter to go in between the two.

Things that will never happen:
- Refunding money paid for FSD
- Replacing MCU1's with MCU2's
- Refusing to replace AP2 computer with FSD computer

They'll figure out a way to do it (either make them compatible or develop an adapter). I have zero doubt.

It is probably a software issue. But how long will they make MCU1 cars wait.
 
AP2 cars with MCU1, AP2.5 cars with MUC1 AP2.5 cars with MCU2, all need to be updated to the FSD computer and MCU1 cars may or may not need MCU upgrade. All of the above is required to take advantage of a feature complete FSD software which at this point in time doesn't exist. Hopefully it will happen soon but it's going to be happening soon for sometime now. Until FSD is actually ready for prime time does the upgrade to FSD computer really matter?
 
I do not think this word “incompatible” means what people think it does, and I do think using it in this case is pure speculation.

To me, “incompatible” means “never gonna work”. Fundamental architectural or physical differences that can’t be overcome vs. “we haven’t developed/tested/certified the interface yet because it made sense to start elsewhere”. Nobody knows what is actually the issue, though common sense makes me believe it’s the latter.

Service centers don’t know jack. That’s well established at this point.

I’ll agree with all of that.
 
Things that will never happen:
- Refunding money paid for FSD
- Replacing MCU1's with MCU2's
- Refusing to replace AP2 computer with FSD computer

It's a question of cost:
- Refunding money paid for FSD: Will lead to a costly court battle and bad PR.
- Replacing MCU1's with MCU2's: Developing an adapter cost money too. How much is the question.
- Refusing to replace AP2 computer with FSD computer: Now that would be silly.
 
It is probably a software issue. But how long will they make MCU1 cars wait.

Thats exactly the point. The longer they wait, the less cars they need to upgrade. From the current Tesla approach to the existing customers I'm pretty sure, that they'll wait indefinitely, means just sit and watch, maybe do some slight promisses and excuses and let the old MCU1 cars fade out from the market naturally. But thats our (as a customer) fault. We accepted this trick play already numerous times. Any other car manufacturer would already have all the cars back in his backyard and will be filling chapter 11.
 
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It's a question of cost:
- Refunding money paid for FSD: Will lead to a costly court battle and bad PR.
- Replacing MCU1's with MCU2's: Developing an adapter cost money too. How much is the question.
- Refusing to replace AP2 computer with FSD computer: Now that would be silly.

If it's truly a hardware incompatibility (which I find to be extremely unlikely, since the development of the FSD computer happened during or slightly after the MCU1 reign), developing an adapter is probably already done, and likely in production. That would probably result in a cost of at most $50/unit. Keep in mind, we paid between $2000-$7000 for FSD.... so they're still pretty profitable on the deal.

It is most likely a software issue that has to be worked through at this point (if it's an issue at all). We all know service centers are usually the last to find anything out - so whoever was told it was "incompatible" was probably being BS'd. I was told by my service center TWICE that an AP2 car could NOT be upgraded to FSD computer - impossible. Once I asked them why I could purchase the upgrade, and why they are still offering it to AP2 customers, they were stumped. This is as recently as 2 weeks ago.

Let's all cool our jets and just wait it out... My guess is that by next year at this time we will all have our FSD computer upgrades.
 
If ther is an incompatibility, the likely cause would be lack of processing power. IMHO.
Could be hardware things too, like missing wiring, wrong power ratings for wiring, maybe missing some redundant controls, other things. Everyone seems to assumes the MCU1 to HW3 incompatibility is purely in the MCU functionality or processing power, but it doesn't have to be. It could well be that other things (like wiring harnesses, or different redundant actuators, etc) have also changed at the same time as MCU1 to MCU2 - we know for a fact that some wiring harnesses had to change to accommodate MCU2 features - wifi antenna now includes 5GHz and wiring to the instrument cluster is different (not sure the exact difference, but unless they can send IC video over a 4 wire Ethernet harness, it would take more than an adapter to make MCU2 transition).
 
Could be hardware things too, like missing wiring, wrong power ratings for wiring, maybe missing some redundant controls, other things. Everyone seems to assumes the MCU1 to HW3 incompatibility is purely in the MCU functionality or processing power, but it doesn't have to be. It could well be that other things (like wiring harnesses, or different redundant actuators, etc) have also changed at the same time as MCU1 to MCU2 - we know for a fact that some wiring harnesses had to change to accommodate MCU2 features - wifi antenna now includes 5GHz and wiring to the instrument cluster is different (not sure the exact difference, but unless they can send IC video over a 4 wire Ethernet harness, it would take more than an adapter to make MCU2 transition).

Mcu1 is apparently so garbage it can't even handle the rear camera feed for the dashcam
 
Mcu1 is apparently so garbage it can't even handle the rear camera feed for the dashcam
It handles my rear cam fine... just nothing else very well. The spotify is kinda laggy, browser is 100% useless, and we don't get many games worth a play. Sentry mode is literally a joke... and from a stance of "Fluidity" of the UI, it lags and loses frame rate with every action like a 2004 Windows Laptop with 3 Powerpoints up.
But it's K because it *looks* like a good system at first when ya get into the car o_O