2017 Models S Performance (100D) price new $95,000. Less $7,500 Fed credit, so let’s say $87,500. They sell all day long today for about $70,000, but let’s go with $65,000 to be conservative. That’s an effective residual of 74%. That’s with 30,000 miles and three years old.
2021 Model S Performance price new $95,000 (let’s keep the numbers simple). Assuming no major refresh announced tomorrow so the residual stays the same. If they do a major refresh of this model year, then the residual just goes up. But to be conservative, it stays at 74%. That’s a “selling value” of $70,300. So the car cost just under $25,000 for three years of use and 30,000 miles.
The lease rates Tesla is quoting today far surpass this cost of ownership. I don’t have access to an executed lease so I don’t know if the disparity lies in their residual value being much lower than 74% or their monthly rent charge is atrociously inflated.
I am by no means a car-leasing expert. I only know from my previous 8 cars that I leased for my wife and I about how leases are structured. Believe me, I’d much rather lease this Tesla. I have tried every which way to make these numbers make sense to me and they just don’t. If I am wrong on these calculations, please explain it to me in easy terms for my little brain to understand. If I can wrap my hands around what you are saying to justify a lease deal, then I’ll contact Tesla and change my financing to a lease deal and sleep better at night!
Just a crude example. My current lease is a 2018 Maserati Ghibli S. MSRP was about $86,000. I paid 0 down and $680 a month for 36 months and 30,000 miles. That shows how wonky leases can get. There are $50,000 Audi’s that have higher lease rates than this. Now mine is kind of an outlier because it was a very solid deal I was able to negotiate, but the point is these leases can run the gamut from good to bad with the same MSRP. These Tesla’s represent the worst I have seen for leasing prospects.
