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Model S Lease Speculation Thread

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Rifleman, Aug 27, 2012.

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  1. firealarm

    firealarm Member

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    My guess for the S lease

    I'm waiting for the S to start leasing as the commitment to buy is a little too much. The car plus the warranty, the maintenance, all of the taxes, fees, delivery, is too much to just straight buy the car. I was thinking this is how the lease would play out:

    Assuming $78,000 MSRP (300 mile S, plus tech package, price increase, and nappa leather), $3500 cap cost reduction (plus license fees & first months payment would be about $5,500 down total), a residual of 53% (my guess) and a money factor of .0020 (high guess, but reasonable for this type of car) would have a cost of about $1,100/month+tax for 36 months. $900/month for 48 months. I would even go 60 months, but since the warranty would have expired, I don't think it's too risky.

    Not good numbers, but not horrendous. This is based on major guesses on my part. Really hurts when I know you can get a BMW 640 Grand Touring around the same price with similar if not more options for about $850/month, including tax.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. UMD86

    UMD86 Member

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    When comparing to the BMW don't forget to add in the savings of NOT buying gasoline. That will save you a few thousand a year. I'm giving up my 650i (12 mpg) and will save $8,000 per year.

    The residual value is close for 36 mos. For this car with very little mtce plus wear and tear - I would say 55%.
     
  3. Al Sherman

    Al Sherman It's about THIS car.

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    When do you reasonably think anything like this will start?
     
  4. UMD86

    UMD86 Member

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    Tesla will have to work out programs with the various banks. I used to work for 20 years in the leasing industry and with no history of residual values nor an established secondary market it will be tough.
     
  5. jomo25

    jomo25 Active Member

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    When you lease a Volt, the $7500 credit is factored into the price. Not sure if it will be the same for the S. Alas, I think it will be some time (9 months) before leases are available.
     
  6. firealarm

    firealarm Member

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    The 640i Gran Coupe get 30 mpg highway and I think 22 mpg city, so it's not that bad. Also, for us, the savings won't be much. For me to get the 12 cent kw price, we have to get a separate meter for Edison at a cost of $3,000 to have the electrical changed. Edison will install the meter for free, but to prepare that installation, it's 3K. (got the quote) Because of this, during the summer time with lots of AC, we'll be paying .33 kw. Our savings won't be anything close to 8K/year.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Without it being factored in, leading the S would not make any sense at all.

    Tesla posted on their blog that leases will start sometime summer of '13.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yeah, the residual and MF were my guesses. I hope they announce those soon.
     
  7. seidste1

    seidste1 Member

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    For me to get the 12 cent kw price, we have to get a separate meter for Edison at a cost of $3,000 to have the electrical changed. Edison will install the meter for free, but to prepare that installation, it's 3K.


    In Michigan DTE will send someone to run the line and install the meter. They will cover $2500 of the cost. The electricity is billed at 50% of the normal price if used during evening hours. This may be available in other states. Check with your electric provider.
     
  8. firealarm

    firealarm Member

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    Wow, nice. I called and them and they said the 3K is on us. They just install the meter for free.
     
  9. jomo25

    jomo25 Active Member

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    9 months from now is August, still "summer" esp. In Tesla terms. And I don't think there's a guarantee that the 7500 would be factored in. I agree it should be, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.
     
  10. firealarm

    firealarm Member

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    I wouldn't be surprised either, however, it's money they're getting and just deciding not to pass it on. We'll just pay extra for no reason. If they decide to do that, we won't be getting the S and I know at least 3 other people that have deposits, want the car, but would cancel their reservations if this were the case. We're not just going to throw away money.
     
  11. Brian H

    Brian H Banned

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    Whoa! Say what? You just accused TM of theft, I think.
     
  12. Alexander

    Alexander P# 8,878

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    Leasing Options?

    Has anyone heard anything about leasing options in the US yet? I'm waiting to finalize my order (in part) because I want to see those options, and I pland to hold off until I do... or until May... whichever comes first :)

    Has anyone heard anything?
     
  13. ohaq

    ohaq Model S #P9,326

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  14. Joyrider

    Joyrider Member

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    It is not Tesla that would be getting the tax break money, it is the leasing company. It is true that some leases on plugin cars do have the tax break figured in. Ford does this with their plugin vehicles.

    But with no resale history for calculating the residual on the Model S a leasing company may just keep the tax credit for themselves as a hedge against an over valued residual calculation.

    I am one who really wants to lease the car and just got his invitation to configure. It looks like I will have to make a difficult choice soon.
     
  15. Alexander

    Alexander P# 8,878

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    You can hold off finalizing your car for as long as you can bear it. I've been holding off since early December for the same reasons, and I think I'll wait until May. If they don't have a lease option by then I'll just take out a loan like everyone else... well most everyone else :)
     
  16. swegman

    swegman Active Member

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    I think if you defer, you will not be able to keep the old pricing. Also, you should check your state for tax credits they may offer. My state (MD) offers a $2000 tax credit which expires at the end of June, 2013. This may also affect your decision.
     
  17. herbvdh

    herbvdh Member

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  18. ohaq

    ohaq Model S #P9,326

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    Now that 40kwh is cancelled, what do you think this means for leasing? leasing 60kwh will be expensive compared to 40kwh. The cost will go up by 100-200 for those who were planning to lease the 40kwh.
     

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