Model S - Now or Later

Tesla just added black and white ventilated seats.

Nobody know if or when the next 'refresh' will happen. Could be one week, six weeks, six months, or never.

 

IMO, Tesla is nose deep in model 3 production. There is no time to think of a refresh. I would say it's at least next summer before a dramatic refresh. Always small things changing.

Best time to buy is final month of quarter, March, June, Sept or December. Great deals on showroom models during that time. I watched prices for almost a year before buying this March.

Message me with any other questions or if you need a referral code.

 

The tax credit is now good through at least September, 2018 and more likely December, 2018 (Order date, not delivery date). After those dates, it goes down to $3750 for two quarters.

 

This can be quickly answered by a visit to a showroom for a test drive

Honestly, if you are ready and you like the features that are available now then there is no point of waiting. There will always be the next new shiny thing coming soon.

 

It may change at some point, but you've probably noticed that Tesla make incremental changes at (seemingly) random times. Elon comes from software and that's how software is typically done in an agile environment. A feature that adds customer value is done, it is released. We see that obviously in the OTA software updates. But Tesla extends that philosophy to the hardware of the car itself.

A few years ago, we got the refreshed front hood and headlights. While it modernized the front end appearance, it was fundamentally the same car. AP2 was introduced in a "random" quarter. White Interior, ventilated seats, same way. AP2.5 was introduced when Tesla felt it was ready. Most recently was the new, faster MCU2. All incremental, but they obviously add up over time. Now the ventilated seats are back (hopefully improved!).

You say "It's been a while since Tesla has updated the vehicle"...well, since 2016 we have had 100kWh battery pack, AP2, AP2.5, new interior colors, new wheels, new seats, faster MCU, improved motors and other smaller improvements.

I think it is safe to say that Tesla is constantly improving their vehicles...it just happens more incrementally and on a mysterious (to us) schedule.

Many are expecting to see a refreshed interior overhaul. But have been for the last 2 years. Maybe it will happen. Or maybe not. Maybe they will suddenly change the door panels one day. And then a month or two later, a new console. Then a quarter or two later...a new dash a la Model 3 and it's infinitely adjustable air vents. I'm not saying that they would incrementally update the interior rather than big-bang it...just that it is certainly a possibility that you can't dismiss based on their history.

The other big change people are expecting is moving to the new battery cells. While most of us believe this is an inevitability we just have no idea when it will come. My personal guess (and it's of course only a guess) is that it wouldn't be before Model 3 is humming along at 5000+ units a month. Because while Tesla would likely want to use the same cells to further build their economies of scale, they need all of those new cells for the Model 3 ramp. That's probably why they extended their contract with Panasonic for the older cells a while longer.

If you wait 6-12 months, you will likely get something not available now. It could be relatively minor like ventilated seats or some new wheel option. It could be something more major like a new battery pack or maybe even significant interior changes. But you would miss out on driving the best car on the planet for the next 6-12 months and you can also be sure that the people who eventually buy their Tesla 6-12 months after you finally get your car will get something even better ;-).

Suggest leasing

"Tesla will never stop innovating. People are buying the wrong car if they expect this. There will be major revs every 12 to 18 months." - Elon Musk

 

Get in contact with an owner adviser. They will have inventory cars that do not show on the Tesla website. First week in June would be the best time, IMO.

 

I thought the tax credit was based on delivery date.

 

You're totally right. I was thinking referral credits. Sorry!

 

CameronB nailed it.

I was in a similar situation a month ago, though (and ordered a model S 2 weeks ago) I did a lot of research on the evolution of the Model S and it has had A LOT of iterative updated over the past 5 years. I am not sure we will ever see a whole car refresh on the S ever. It seems like it will be much more of an evolution and small increments will happen all the time resulting in some major changes over time. This approach ensures the vehicle will transcend time unlike other cars that have major refreshes and the refresh looks nothing like the previouis car - instantly making the previous car look dated.

 

I look at this as an investment. These markets are ever-changing and nearly impossible to predict, if you wait for the price or an option, it may never happen however, it may. An example: I bought TSLA at 43$ and my buddy did not feel like it was worth it and said he was going to buy at 36$...on the other side it could have been a total flop.

CameronB did nail it.

This is a software company who happened to make a fantastic car. If you have concrete knowledge of a future change then wait but, this is Tesla, this is a software company expect Hot Fixes. BUY BUY BUY!!!

 

The answer is always to wait, but not long enough to miss out on the tax credit.

 

Waiting to buy a newer Tesla is only a reasonable consideration if you already drive an EV. If you have a ICE abandon it now if at all possible. ICE cars are absolutely disgusting and their use is irresponsible.

 

Exactly this ^.

I feel that Tesla has enough of a track record to show that if they can make a running change, they will. There may be some changes where they couldn't potentially add something in incrementally. If they have to "Big Bang" it with a significant change, they will. But I think if they can incrementally do it, they would prefer to.

Like @born2run said, this is different than traditional automakers who make changes on a model year basis (and then after 5-8 years, just build essentially a completely new from the ground up car).

If you take incremental changes to the extreme, you could see over many years, that there could end up being zero common parts from say a 2025 Model S and a 2012 Model S. A new hood and fender here. A revised roofline and trunk here. A new suspension there, etc.

So incremental improvements (kaizen) is the Tesla way. And not on model year boundaries like other manufacturers.

I remember listening to a Tesla podcast episode last year and hearing the host (Ryan M) answer some questions from listeners about the lack of cup holders for the rear seat passengers. I had just gotten my car a few weeks before that episode and saw that I had factory cupholders in the rear of the console for backseat passengers. And rear USB ports, too!

Even though Ryan obviously obsesses over Teslas like many of us, he couldn't keep up with all the changes Tesla makes. So at some point, Tesla added those cupholders and rear USB ports. Not sure when, but they just slipped them in.

All of that said, I can think of a few reasons why Tesla may introduce an "all new" Model S at some point: 1) to improve manufacturing efficiencies (Elon has said that Model S -and X- are really hard to build) and 2) if needed to accommodate new 2170 battery cells for new packs and/or the PM motors. Not sure if the current "sled" would accommodate the higher cells comfortably or not. If not, then they may be forced to re-work the chassis to accommodate the new cells (because ultimately they would want to use the same cells, I'm sure). If they were having to re-work the chassis anyhow, I could see them making other changes at the same time. One thing I was thinking of is maybe they end up using a similar dual AC induction/PM motor combo in the S like they are planning for AWD for the Model 3. This would let them continue to get increased economies of scale for Model 3 parts (battery packs and potentially motors).

 

I was in a similar situation two years ago. I chose to buy. Had I waited just a bit longer, I would have had AP2. I like AP1 just fine and, in about ten years, I will have a brand new Tesla of some sort with capabilities that will blow away anything that Tesla has to offer now. Just imagine!!! Had I waited, I would not have had my S to enjoy for that time and it would be just that much longer before I get to buy the new one that will be so much better than the one I did not wait for.

 

Why first week of June? does not the sales team get incentivized for end of quarter June end sales target? I was thinking if M3 takes more time, want to go a low end Model S provided I get a good deal .. it has to be really good deal (is that possible for Model S?) anyone can share - like to DM you and get in touch on how to structure my conversation with the sales folks if I go by Model S route.

 

Honestly, I don't think we will see much of the deals on a new/inventory for Model S for a while. Tesla has shifted its attention and resources to boost the production rate of Model 3. Assuming the demand for Model S or X has not waned, the newly produced units will find an owner very quickly.

I would suggest to get in touch with SA regardless, highlight your desired specs and wait for the outcome. Think of must haves vs nice to have, you would most likely have to compromise if they find any inventory car with a discount on it. In my case it was a color, but no regrets whatsoever. It is a fantastic car, no matter what

 

I am kind of shooting myself in the foot as an investor to repost this article on a public forum, but after reading this the other day, I would wait a little:
Tesla aims to release more powerful Supercharger V3 for quicker charging this summer