Model S Now or Model 3 Later Considerations

[Nevek]

I had a private dialog with a Model 3 reservation holder considering an S now that the lower priced updated S60 has been announced. There are some points I hope may be helpful to anyone else looking at the trade-offs.

One of that persons main concerns was if the Model S would be "old tech" once the new 3 is shipping. My thoughts are below, YMMV:

"I think the question of waiting for new tech is one every Tesla buyer faces. At some point the tech is right for an individual to go ahead and make the plunge. For me it was dual motors, autopilot and next-gen seats early last year.

Musk made two points about this, that the current production S (and X) are constantly improving and receives multiple improvements per week (they don’t wait for model years). The second more recent point is that the S/X platform will always have flagship tech first. (these are quotes you can look up in TMC or on the web, some were in interviews, some Tweets, etc).

I take this to mean that when the Model 3 comes out, the Model S at that time will have the latest tech and be in advance of the Model 3. Now, the current Model S may well not have some new tech that will be in the Model 3-but no-one knows for sure on timing for next gen autopilot, new motors, etc. What I believe from Musk’s comments is regardless of what the 3 has then, the S will have something beyond it, much as Mercedes releases its latest tech in the big Merc S and SL that eventually finds it way to the Merc E and C.

So to me the question of S now or 3 later is more of:

-can I afford the premium for an S?
-am I OK waiting or do I want to get a Tesla now?
-is a bigger car OK?
-does the hatch back on the S have a lot of value for me, since the 3 won’t have it?
-is the current hardware tech good enough for a few years (with OTA software updates) for me or is there some key missing feature I must have?
-do I think I’ll get the currently available $7500 Federal tax credit and any state incentives by the time the 3 comes out?

I’m pretty sure when the 3 is shipping, the S will then have tech beyond what the 3 does.

It's a very personal decision, and whatever you decide, you are going to love a Tesla. I bought my 85D to replace one of my two personal vehicles (GMC Yukon) and after a month of driving the Tesla, I sold the other fun car, a Mercedes SL55 AMG, because I knew I would not be driving it anymore. The precision driving control level and overall pleasure of driving electric spoils you for ICE cars."

 

[flamingoezz]

If I was going to take the plunge on an S, I would wait til later this year. Elon mentioned an announcement at Code Conference coming later this year -- many assume AP2.0. Might be worth waiting 4-5 months to find out.

I don't think M3 will be getting much more in terms of tech than the S. If it does get a HUD, i could see the rest of the line going that route too in short order.

 

[Booga]

It depends on their situation. If they're rich enough, just buy one now and then a new one later when the technology is upgraded lol.

I'm waiting for many reasons, but I think the biggest is that I anticipate an improvement to Autopilot and don't want to buy just a few months before the hardware starts getting put into cars.

 

[Nevek]

It depends on their situation. If they're rich enough, just buy one now and then a new one later when the technology is upgraded lol.

I'm waiting for many reasons, but I think the biggest is that I anticipate an improvement to Autopilot and don't want to buy just a few months before the hardware starts getting put into cars.

Agreed, if you want the next-gen autopilot you have to wait. But it won't be a Model S vs Model 3 decision to get it at that point. The S will get it first, and 3 will likely have when it is released. (But let's face it, only Mr Musk know for sure).

 

[WileyTheMan]

It certainly a financial thing for me. I've got a growing family to take care of and I just can't justify spending $70k+ on a car when I have college tuitions and retirement plans to think of. Yeah I have priorities, go fig. That's why I was so excited about the Model 3. I *can* justify $40-$45k on a Tesla!

 

[Booga]

Agreed, if you want the next-gen autopilot you have to wait. But it won't be a Model S vs Model 3 decision to get it at that point. The S will get it first, and 3 will likely have when it is released. (But let's face it, only Mr Musk know for sure).

From the things he has said and their autopilot engineer has described, it seems like it might be in the Model 3 to begin with, and in the Model S a little bit earlier. The hardware itself isn't the most expensive (A few bucks per camera) and so I think it's more of a software challenge than hardware. Because of this, the hardware should be rolled out relatively quickly, and I think that's the key feature I'm looking for in my Model 3.

 

[zenmaster]

Model S is too big and too heavy for my use. It is a boat. The Model 3's reduced size, significantly reduced weight and drag are big factors in my purchase.

 

[22522]

I wonder : "Is correlating the new look with a $50K price tag the right move?"

First exposure (for many) to the new look has a low price right beside it. Some concern when you stand back and look at it.

On the other hand, the 3 is spot on!

 

[Chopr147]

If I were ready for a new car now I would definitely go for the S. But one of the reasons I reserved a 3 is because the timing works well for me. I figured on 2 more years with the Yukon then Tesla's next best thing comes out. Problem with the S60 is options. Must add AP,dual motor etc.... and before I know it I am back up to 80k

 

[winnie]

It depends on your situation. If you're rich enough, just buy one now and then a new one later when the technology is upgraded lol.

I got my 85 2014, I have very good driving experience, but I think the biggest is that I anticipate an improvement to Autopilot. When the model 3 comes out, maybe i will buy one for my wife....

 

[jsanford]

I'm with zenmaster and Chopr147 at this point. We're driving a Model S next weekend, though. It would have to be a marvelous experience, though, to change our strategy, overcome our love of the clutch pedal, and Yaris urban parking flexibility.

 

[roblab]

OK, I bought the S90D. It is a lot bigger than my Scion xA I had a few years ago, and I, too have driven clutch cars and enjoyed it for the past 55 years or so. But I got used to no gears and, as someone has said, a "boat" (although a screamin', very maneuverable, powerful, stable boat with lots of room inside) in about 5 minutes.

But what I'm not seeing here is what I just read on another post by a friend of mine who just got an X. He can't get into service, and his new baby was delivered with a number of needed fixes.

One of the things that prompted me to go the S route the second time now was the dual motors and the AP, but more than that was the memory of all those little things that are the bugaboos of a new product. My first Model S had them, fixed pleasantly for free, but a good many trips to the factory, back when there were only a couple thousand cars around. Now we have the X, and in a couple years, the ≡, and service is getting to be an issue. My later Model S came with one little rattle beside the pano, and was fixed in 15 minutes in one trip.

It might be a deciding factor.