TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Model S rampup to 20K units...

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by tdelta1000, Mar 23, 2012.

  1. tdelta1000

    tdelta1000 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2009
    Messages:
    1,667
    Location:
    South Florida
    When will Tesla Motors decided to move to the stated Model S 20K units annually? Will it be after the initial 5000 unit are sold or will TM wait for a second 5000 units are sold to move to the 20K goal?
     
  2. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2009
    Messages:
    11,923
    It's 20k per year right? So they do the slow ramp up this year (half a year really) to 5k units, and I expect they want to do 20k in their first full year (next year). Right now they're at about 3k for 2013 (not sure if that includes European), so they've got a ways to go, but reservations may pick up once cars are actually on the road.
     
  3. richkae

    richkae VIN587

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2008
    Messages:
    1,917
    I know several people who are seriously interested in the Model S, but they won't put down a deposit until they can test drive.

    5000 cars in the 2nd half of 2012 is 10000 cars per year - but production isnt flat.
    If Tesla starts at 0 per year half way through 2012, and linearly ramps up production until the end of 2012 and deliver 5000 cars in 2012, they will be producing at a rate of 20000 per year at the start of 2013.
     
  4. ElSupreme

    ElSupreme Model S 03182

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2012
    Messages:
    4,279
    Location:
    Atlanta, GA
    I bet Tesla Runs very close to the "20k per year" rate in late 2012. They will continue to run at that rate until they start building an inventory. I think they will be able to run that fast until at least the end of 2013. After that I don't know if they will need more or less production. But I bet they run that rate if there is any continuous demand for the Model S, even if they have to halt production for say 5 weeks.

    20k a year is ~80 cars a day. I bet they hit that around November this year. I also bet they try to run 100 cars a day for a week or two before settling down to their desired 80 cars a day rate.

    I bet Signatures are produced in the 10-20 per day range, where they slowly bring up line speed, but don't run it for 10 hours. And by the time they hit the P cars they are going to want to be running 80 cars a day.
     
  5. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2011
    Messages:
    2,379
    Location:
    SF Bay Area
    20,000/yr is 1666/month, or about 78 vehicles/day.

    My thinking is they need to ramp up from about 1 vehicle/day (Founders series) in July to 78 vehicles/day in late December 2012. Doing that ramp-up linearly does not quite get them to a total production of 5000 vehicles in 2012, so the ramp-up will be non-linear. Especially in the beginning, there'll be fits and spurts as QC finds problems and halts the line until they're corrected. Also, Tesla may decide to not reach the 20K/year rate right away, seeing how demand continues before making too many cars. Besides quality, there are volume handling issues (getting enough raw materials in, storing finished sub-assemblies for installation, etc.) to work out.

    That all said, I think when test drives are available to non-reservation holders, reservations will spike up. And when there is little to no backlog, sales will go up since some people only buy cars off the lot. So, there will have to be some inventory at the Tesla Stores all the time. That will be the real test for demand. When there are Model S's "on the lot" will sales be at the 20K/year pace? With, say 32 Tesla stores worldwide, each store needs to move 52 vehicles/month - or just under 2 per day. Can they achieve and sustain that rate for 18 months with a car whose median price is around $75K (before tax rebates)?
     
  6. richkae

    richkae VIN587

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2008
    Messages:
    1,917
    It will be very interesting what the real median price is - especially after ignoring the first few thousand sales to early adopters.
    Polling people on TMC isn't super meaningful, because we are early adopters.
     
  7. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2011
    Messages:
    4,266
    I suppose this is part of the "what worries you most" thread, but there's a fairly tight window after Tesla starts shipping to when they run out of preorders. It's taken years to get the orders they've got now, but it's only 6 months worth at full speed (~10k preorders, ~20k a year eventual run). Now, due to ramp up, it'll take 9 months or so to actually get through those first 10k orders.

    The theory is that orders will increase heavily as the car gets on the road, seen, reviewed, etc, but there's a lag between awareness and orders rolling in. Is 9 months a long enough window for demand to kick in and keep Tesla at 20k a year? Or is there going to be a dip sometime in the middle of 2013 where demand hasn't quite kicked in enough? A dip wouldn't be inherently bad, just part of the nature in that delayed market awareness, but it's something that would need to be managed ahead of time to avoid a sudden set of layoffs.
     
  8. richkae

    richkae VIN587

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2008
    Messages:
    1,917
    I would think that the number of people willing to put a deposit down on a car is a fraction of the car buying public.
    The number of people willing to put a deposit down on something they won't get for more than a year is smaller.
    But its an even smaller fraction that are willing to put down a deposit on something they have not test driven or ever seen the final version.
     
  9. Iz

    Iz EVs are here to stay

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2006
    Messages:
    1,074
    Location:
    New York
    If TM can get the first 3k vehicles before end of year it might be a good time to consider some advertisements in early 2013. A few well-placed ads and a growing number of vehicles on the roads could easily bring in another 10k reservations. They would definitely require at least one vehicle per store to offer test drives. Many of those potential buyers will be looking for something more substantial and not what we have been doing for the past several years.
     
  10. Arnold Panz

    Arnold Panz Model Sig 304, VIN 542

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2009
    Messages:
    1,341
    Location:
    Miami, Florida
    Let's keep in mind that Tesla has managed to secure over 8000 reservations that no one has gotten to test drive (or see the final version of), and if reserved today would still have to wait over a year to get delivery. They've also done this with absolutely no traditional advertising whatsoever. There's an interesting story in today's NY Times about how young people don't really love cars the way generations before did. To Draw Reluctant Young Buyers GM Turns To MTV for Help

    I think the Model S is something that young people would really love once they saw and it and understood what it was all about. 95% of the people I talk to (of all ages) about Tesla have never even heard of the company, let alone the Model S. Once it's out in the marketplace and there is no long delay in getting delivery, and assuming it's favorably reviewed by critics and owners, I fully expect they'll be able to sell 20k cars a year with ease.
     
  11. Iz

    Iz EVs are here to stay

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2006
    Messages:
    1,074
    Location:
    New York
    Some young people may see Model S as an extension of their iPods. They will have an easier adjustment to plugging in Model S or a future EV.
     
  12. Larry Chanin

    Larry Chanin Model S Perf Sig 1055

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2011
    Messages:
    4,283
    Location:
    Sarasota, Florida
    As long as there is a backlog of orders it would be unwise for Tesla to resort to conventional advertising to build demand that can't be immediately fullfilled.

    I agree that it would make sense, and cost less than conventional advertising, to ensure there are sufficient vehicles at stores and touring around the country to offer test drives. In particular Tesla should make a point of also showing entry-level cars.

    Larry
     
  13. ElSupreme

    ElSupreme Model S 03182

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2012
    Messages:
    4,279
    Location:
    Atlanta, GA
    I would like to bring up one point. I feel that soon after delivering the first 100 or so cars (assuming it is on time an smooth) Tesla will roughly double their current wait list with people waiting for them to look REAL. I personally said goodbye to my $5000. I won't be heartbroken if it just vaporizes. Sure I will be mad but I made myself know that I could very well never see it again. I don't think very many people are willing to split with $5000 unless they KNOW other people are not getting ripped off.

    Granted in mid August Tesla won't get 10,000 more orders. But I bet between August and March 2013 Tesla OVER doubles their current order number. I have my mom convinced that Tesla is the next best thing, but her lease isn't up until Dec 2013 so she has no interest in putting her deposit down. Heck she even asked if she could put her money now and just ask for a December 2013 slot.
     
  14. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2006
    Messages:
    14,792
    Location:
    CA CA
    But that does not mean they will buy a very big car. One that costs $50,000. A Leaf seems more likely. Smaller, a major maker, lots of ads on TV.

    That said, the bluestar might be perfect timing in the big ramp up to everyone learning about electrics.
     
  15. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2012
    Messages:
    12,754
    Location:
    Texas
    I thought hard about a Leaf--even put down the $99, but in the end I didn't get one because I just couldn't see paying $36,000 for a car that can't be counted on to go more than 60 miles. Also the dealers were just not interested in even discussing a Leaf purchase. I suspect that if the Leaf fails it will be because the dealers killed it.

    I am so looking forward to the Tesla sales experience.
     
  16. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

    Joined:
    May 17, 2009
    Messages:
    18,235
    Location:
    Las Vegas, NV
    I can see the base Model S appealing to young professionals in their late 20s who have been studying a long time and are just in their first big job. They may want to reward themselves and pick something more modern and clean like the Model S.
     
  17. ElSupreme

    ElSupreme Model S 03182

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2012
    Messages:
    4,279
    Location:
    Atlanta, GA
    Hmmm ... That sounds a little like myself! Except that studying thing. I was more interested in beer, bicycle races, and more beer. Granted I did do well in college.
     
  18. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

    Joined:
    May 17, 2009
    Messages:
    18,235
    Location:
    Las Vegas, NV
    Must be that raptor like instinct that allowed you to attack tests=) Good to see the old raptor avatar back.
     
  19. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2011
    Messages:
    4,266
    Not sure what sort of professionals you're talking about, but as a software engineer, which is a reasonably well paying job, there is absolutely no way I could have afforded the equivalent of a base model S at that point in my life.
     
  20. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

    Joined:
    May 17, 2009
    Messages:
    18,235
    Location:
    Las Vegas, NV
    Mainly physicians and maybe lawyers I'd guess after being in school into their late 20s/early 30s. I didn't mean to imply it would be easy or smart for someone that age to go for it financially just responding to a previous post about what kind of young person might go for a Model S.

    I hope that once Tesla fills their initial rush of orders that with people driving around (free advertising) that enough orders come in to keep them at their 20,000 annual production capacity.
     

Share This Page