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Model S rampup to 20K units...
- Thread starter tdelta1000
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- Tesla Inc.
After reading the posts to the thread, it looks like Tesla Motors must get demo cars into the stores for test driving, get the first several hundred Model S on the road and then rev up their advertising campaign to get to the 20K units annually mark. I truly think that Tesla Motors can meet this goal.
I'm inclined to agree. I went to test drive a Leaf (and a Volt) just to have something to compare with... and the dealer experience was less than stellar. A young smooth talker took me out on the test drive. When I wanted to ask details he quickly deferred me to their "EV specialist", when we quickly switched to talk about the Model S(!). Then he made some peculiar statements. With my reservation number I definitely wouldn't get the car this year (later refuted by several TM people, including GeorgeB) and that he with his reservation (high 2000's) he had already test driven the car and locked in his options (this was a good few weeks before this thread appeared: It's Time to Build Your Model S ). Weirdest experience...
The Volt guy at the Chevy dealer was much better, but that could be because he wasn't actually in sales... :-/
OK, enough of the off-topic from me...
Has anyone seen a market analysis of how many buyers are out there that have garages, i.e. the least trouble installing a home charger. I live in a city and I'm always sad walking down my block and seeing all the cars that CAN'T easily be Teslas, at least not right away, because they live on the street more or less permanently.
That is true. However, it should be remembered that electricity is more ubiquitous than gasoline stations and gasoline stations aren't located at every parking spot. It may take a little time, but the rollout of charging infrastructure will be a lot faster than for the initial gas stations. As you know there is much less regulation and environmental issues as well as costs for charging stations versus gas stations, and it is quite feasible to even have them in apartment complexes eventually.
A friend who is in the charger business mentioned to me recently that a developer of a luxury condominium in Ft. Lauderdale is installing chargers in every parking space in the building. I view this as a precursor of things to come.
Larry
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Wow, I wonder what their Electrical Load calcs look like. They have to plan for everyone charging at the same time!!
That truly is a smart thing to do, especially if you're building the property from scratch. The cost to add them up front must be almost nothing compared to the entire project or to trying to add them later.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
True, but about 3 X. If you have 30 amps air conditioning, and two parking spots per unit and each spot charges at 30 amps, that 3 x the normal load for the same building without charging.
de704
XP268
Two things..
1.) Model X comes on line at the end of 2013. That's another waiting list to work through.
2.) More importantly, Tesla still hasn't advertised yet.
Hi Lloyd,
Isn't is unlikely that a luxury condominium in Florida would only have just 30 amps for air conditioning? My normal home has two air conditioners with 60 amp circuits for each compressor plus additional 30 amp circuits for each of the air handlers.
I frankly do not know whether the developer prewired two parking spaces per unit. I think one per unit would be an admirable start.
I don't think the comparison with air conditioning load is out of line.
Larry
Not out of line Larry, I was just trying to get a handle on the requirements for all the charging for every space in a large building. Is 30 amps per unit out of line for a large building? I was just estimating and comparing.
If they are connecting up every parking space I would say a moderate 3-5kW charging service for each point would be fine. Even just 16A 120V should work as you trickle charge it every night. If there is enough units and they expect lots of EVs then 1-2 quickchargers with a pay-to-use service on the premises should handle the few instances where trickle charging wasn't enough. That should also spread the load evenly around day-night cycle.
Cobos
Cobos
I agree and think that Tesla will be able to hit their target rate of 20,000 per year, and that they will likely continue until they start building inventory. It would be very unwise for a startup company to permit production to exceed demand since inventories could seriously jeopardize Tesla's long-term viability.
I mentioned in another thread, my greatest concern is that for such an expensive car it may not be possible to maintain demand of 20,000 cars per year for "normal" buyers after the early adopters and EV enthusiasts have made their early purchases. This may be made more difficult since Model S demand may erode somewhat because some prospective customers will be attracted to the Model X.
I also think that Tesla should continue its practice of avoiding conventional advertising for as long as possible, and should only consider pursuing this course of action until they are firmly in the black. I know this is a chicken and egg proposition, but it is safer if they exercise patience by reducing production rates to match current demand and being content to remain a niche market for a while longer.
They may have to wait until battery advances make selling to the mass market more feasible and the typical buyer has acclimated to the idea of electric vehicles. Moving to a conventional advertising plan prematurely could burn through a lot of cash without gaining buyers if Tesla gauges price points and timing of EV adoption incorrectly.
In contrast, their current strategy of building cars to demand without large inventories and conventional advertising avoids these dangerous financial uncertainties.
Larry
Larry,
I don't disagree, but I also wonder if waiting TOO long to begin advertising could yield the result that the average buyer thinks Tesla is some newbie "following" the other automakers into the EV space vs being pioneers and frontrunners of it. They might think "if they are so great, why am I JUST hearing about them?"
I don't disagree, but I also wonder if waiting TOO long to begin advertising could yield the result that the average buyer thinks Tesla is some newbie "following" the other automakers into the EV space vs being pioneers and frontrunners of it. They might think "if they are so great, why am I JUST hearing about them?"
There is nothing wrong with being in a niche market. Ferrari, Lamborgini, etc. have no problem with maintaining a high profile. :wink:
Larry
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