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wdolson

Supporting Member
Jul 24, 2015
7,637
10,256
Clark Co, WA
I don’t know if I could be convinced by 400 miles at all. Anything over 300 is plenty, so if the smaller pack has 300, I would get that one, even if I wouldn’t improve much over my 90D.

I’d really like a nicer interior and maybe more headroom on the rear seats. If they want to keep the price point, they really need to make it a luxury car IMO, just higher driving range won’t fly. Tons of people buy the Model 3 with 310 miles max and in Europe the lower range Jag and Audi outsell the S and X. People don’t buy an S Class because it has more driving range than a C Class... the same should apply to the S and the 3 and eventually X and Y.

And maybe a slight exterior refresh would also help existing owners parting from their current cars.

Range is a big difference between the US and European markets. For many Americans driving 600-700 miles in a day on a long roadtrip is not unheard of. A 400 miles car means only one stop during the day.

There is even a motorcycle challenge called "The Iron Butt" where people get a certificate if they can prove they did over 1000 miles in a day on their motorcycle. A friend just did an extreme Iron Butt rally, 10,800 miles in 11 days.

Another thing is a 400 mile car has a big buffer for winter driving. You can expect to get around 300 miles even in a Montana winter.

I don't think so. I've driven a 3 and I'm really impressed. Spruce the interior up, add a few luxo options, and I'm very happy with the general styling of the 3 interior for the S.

We'll see how the public responds. Last week I commented that losing the side parts of the instrument display where you can select what's displayed would be a step backwards. Some people said they don't really use them, while others found them extremely useful. Losing the ability to display two screens at once on the center screen was another step backwards.
 
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R.S

Active Member
Mar 8, 2015
1,196
1,004
Munich, Bavaria, Germany
Range is a big difference between the US and European markets. For many Americans driving 600-700 miles in a day on a long roadtrip is not unheard of. A 400 miles car means only one stop during the day.

There is even a motorcycle challenge called "The Iron Butt" where people get a certificate if they can prove they did over 1000 miles in a day on their motorcycle. A friend just did an extreme Iron Butt rally, 10,800 miles in 11 days.

Another thing is a 400 mile car has a big buffer for winter driving. You can expect to get around 300 miles even in a Montana winter.

Maybe, but the Model 3 was sold over 20k times in the US last month, while the Model S only got 1,700 sales, last year they had 2,700 and 3,700 in 2016, before they even had the 100D. So range kept increasing, but sales kept decreasing. So if going from 290-370 didn’t help, why should going from 370 to 400, or even 450?

I think a more reasonably priced (mid 50s, low 60s starting price) 300-370 mile Model S would help sales a lot more, or a more luxurious one.
 

wdolson

Supporting Member
Jul 24, 2015
7,637
10,256
Clark Co, WA
Maybe, but the Model 3 was sold over 20k times in the US last month, while the Model S only got 1,700 sales, last year they had 2,700 and 3,700 in 2016, before they even had the 100D. So range kept increasing, but sales kept decreasing. So if going from 290-370 didn’t help, why should going from 370 to 400, or even 450?

I think a more reasonably priced (mid 50s, low 60s starting price) 300-370 mile Model S would help sales a lot more, or a more luxurious one.

I made a similar point upthread. The fact that the Model 3 is 80% of the car at 1/2 the price is killing Model S sales. I love the screens in the Model S more as well as the more usable cargo space, and just more room overall. But if I was buying today, I probably would grumble and buy a Model 3. I think the way to go for Tesla is a cheaper Model S. If the range is still 370, that would probably be OK.

But 400 miles is a psychological number for many car buyers, especially in the US. Most US ICE cars have around 400 miles range. Some are down around 300 and a few are as high as 600, but 400 is about the average. Because gasoline is so compact, the car makers can put in whatever sized gas tank is needed to get around 400 miles range. Because most ICE are clustered so close together in range, it's a question ICE buyers rarely ask because they are all the same.

For EVs, range is a big deal because the longest range EVs are just now getting into the low-normal range of ICE, but most are significantly less.

With ICE many people look at the miles per gallon (of Km per liter) because that does vary significantly from one ICE to the next, but people aren't concerned about range because most are all in the same neighborhood. With EVs, few are very concerned about the energy efficiency (unless they are data geeks) because all BEVs have ridiculous efficiency compared to ICE, but overall range is a question because that varies a lot.
 
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R.S

Active Member
Mar 8, 2015
1,196
1,004
Munich, Bavaria, Germany
I made a similar point upthread. The fact that the Model 3 is 80% of the car at 1/2 the price is killing Model S sales. I love the screens in the Model S more as well as the more usable cargo space, and just more room overall. But if I was buying today, I probably would grumble and buy a Model 3. I think the way to go for Tesla is a cheaper Model S. If the range is still 370, that would probably be OK.

But 400 miles is a psychological number for many car buyers, especially in the US. Most US ICE cars have around 400 miles range. Some are down around 300 and a few are as high as 600, but 400 is about the average. Because gasoline is so compact, the car makers can put in whatever sized gas tank is needed to get around 400 miles range. Because most ICE are clustered so close together in range, it's a question ICE buyers rarely ask because they are all the same.

For EVs, range is a big deal because the longest range EVs are just now getting into the low-normal range of ICE, but most are significantly less.

With ICE many people look at the miles per gallon (of Km per liter) because that does vary significantly from one ICE to the next, but people aren't concerned about range because most are all in the same neighborhood. With EVs, few are very concerned about the energy efficiency (unless they are data geeks) because all BEVs have ridiculous efficiency compared to ICE, but overall range is a question because that varies a lot.

So you think people don’t buy the Model S, because it has 30 miles less range than their petrol car, but thousands of Americans buy the Model 3, where the SR has 240 miles of range? That doesn’t seem very likely...
 

Krash

Data Technician
Apr 18, 2017
1,906
2,087
Intermountain US
...people aren't concerned about range because most are all in the same neighborhood. With EVs, few are very concerned about the energy efficiency (unless they are data geeks) because all BEVs have ridiculous efficiency compared to ICE, but overall range is a question because that varies a lot.
People aren't concerned w ICE range because there are refill stations everywhere and one can fill a tank faster than one can pee.

And count me as a data geek that doesn't care about efficiency, except to the extent that it effects range.
 
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sandpiper

Active Member
Sep 25, 2014
2,833
2,141
Ontario, Canada
Range is a big difference between the US and European markets. For many Americans driving 600-700 miles in a day on a long roadtrip is not unheard of. A 400 miles car means only one stop during the day.

There is even a motorcycle challenge called "The Iron Butt" where people get a certificate if they can prove they did over 1000 miles in a day on their motorcycle. A friend just did an extreme Iron Butt rally, 10,800 miles in 11 days.

Another thing is a 400 mile car has a big buffer for winter driving. You can expect to get around 300 miles even in a Montana winter.



We'll see how the public responds. Last week I commented that losing the side parts of the instrument display where you can select what's displayed would be a step backwards. Some people said they don't really use them, while others found them extremely useful. Losing the ability to display two screens at once on the center screen was another step backwards.

It depends on the person. Clutter stresses me, so the design aesthetic of the 3 really fits. If you make a lot of real estate available, the companies will feel the need to fill it with information, even though, realistically, you rarely use the majority of it.

The great thing, though, is that Tesla will do what they do, and we can't do a darned thing to control it, so we shouldn't worry about it. :) I'm optimistic.
 

wdolson

Supporting Member
Jul 24, 2015
7,637
10,256
Clark Co, WA
So you think people don’t buy the Model S, because it has 30 miles less range than their petrol car, but thousands of Americans buy the Model 3, where the SR has 240 miles of range? That doesn’t seem very likely...

That isn't what I said. I did say 370 would still be OK, but I pointed out 400 is a psychological thing. The barriers are different in other parts of the world where the metric system is used rather than the US which insists on sticking to the imperial system, but people have psychological things about round numbers. The 370 mile Model S is rated over 600 Km range in Europe which has a loser mileage standard and with the conversion has a bigger number.

When Tesla cracked the 300 mile range limit, that was a big deal and the fact you can get a Model 3 with over 300 miles of range is a big deal and contributes to its big sales numbers.

What is killing the Model S is that is still costs 2X a Model 3 and what you get for the extra money is not worth it to most car buyers. For many people the Model S is completely out of their budget. If the Model S was priced a little more than a Model 3 (starting price about $10K more or so) it would have some features people want for the extra price and wouldn't be seen as an outrageous premium. If they went with an interior comparable to other $100K cars, they will likely see Model S sales continue to languish. There will be people who go for it, but it will be limited due to the price and people's tastes. At least half the people who can afford a $100K car won't buy one because they don't like the over the top aesthetic.

Unlike other EVs out there, Tesla has been successful in cutting into the ICE market. There are many people who would not consider any electric car except a Tesla. This is where the true market growth is going to come from. The eco buyers are a very limited market just like the luxury car market (though the eco buyer market is probably growing a bit). For the ICE crossover market, having the range of an ICE is a selling point. If Tesla cars all have versions that have ranges near the middle of the pack for ICE, that is a psychological barrier crossed.

And in cold climates, a 400 mile car can become a 300 mile car pretty easily in the depth of winter. But for this, a 370 mile range is still close enough.

People aren't concerned w ICE range because there are refill stations everywhere and one can fill a tank faster than one can pee.

And count me as a data geek that doesn't care about efficiency, except to the extent that it effects range.

The speed to "fill the tank" on EVs vs ICE is an issue, but if it was common to have ICE large enough for a road trip with only 100 miles range, people would be concerned about range. People don't want to have to stop 6-8 times a day for fuel on the road, even if it does only take a couple of minute to fill the tank and there are no concerns about finding fuel. There are some lists like this for ICE:
https://www.cars.com/articles/2017-mid-size-suv-driving-ranges-1420693064532/

But finding a comparison list for ICE ranges is not easy. Finding MPG comparison for ICE is easy. MPG varies enough that people want to know.
 
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willw64

Member
Jun 30, 2019
115
225
Colorado and Florida
If the model S were priced $10k more than the model 3 then IMO it wouldn’t be the model S.

The model 3 is just too small for our needs and the X was looked and felt too much like a crossover for our liking which is why we went for the S. In terms of distance there isn’t a ton of difference between the 3 and the S, but if your mission requires more space and range pushing 400 miles it is in a class by itself.
 

computerchuck

Supporting Member
Apr 20, 2017
324
1,249
Utah
Range is the most important single factor for EV takeover of ICE vehicles IMO. Cutting edge battery technology is key, and it’s not cheap to mass produce. For now, Tesla can get away with a $35k premium to a minority of buyers. This won’t be the case maybe 3 years from now if Tesla makes no strides advancing range. But they are.

I predict they will be vertically integrating the new Maxwell tech next year, and we’ll see cheaper Model S’s with 400+ miles range. Dry anode seems to be a significant savings to Tesla’s cost per kw. The packs will be new, which will take time. Late 2020 for mass production seems likely. My 2 cents.
 
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wdolson

Supporting Member
Jul 24, 2015
7,637
10,256
Clark Co, WA
If the model S were priced $10k more than the model 3 then IMO it wouldn’t be the model S.

The model 3 is just too small for our needs and the X was looked and felt too much like a crossover for our liking which is why we went for the S. In terms of distance there isn’t a ton of difference between the 3 and the S, but if your mission requires more space and range pushing 400 miles it is in a class by itself.

Personally I'm not into status symbols. I like what I like and I want quality at a reasonable cost, not some phony markup to pad profits because people want a status symbol. If the Model S is like it is now, or better for $10K more than the Model 3, I consider that a good thing. It means the people, like you, who determine that the Model 3 doesn't fit their needs can more often afford the larger Model S.
 
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DanCar

Active Member
Oct 2, 2013
1,999
1,729
SF Bay Area
I’ll be ordering the day it’s announced. Hope they are ready in September and not much further out.
If the redesign with new 400 mile drive train is very popular you might want to order hours ahead to get ahead in the queue. You never know, they might get thousands of orders quickly and later orders delayed past end of year.
 

willw64

Member
Jun 30, 2019
115
225
Colorado and Florida
Personally I'm not into status symbols. I like what I like and I want quality at a reasonable cost, not some phony markup to pad profits because people want a status symbol. If the Model S is like it is now, or better for $10K more than the Model 3, I consider that a good thing. It means the people, like you, who determine that the Model 3 doesn't fit their needs can more often afford the larger Model S.

I don’t view it as a status symbol and that’s why I held off buying a Tesla as long as we did. I wasn’t precise enough in my reply and actually agree with you that unless you have a room/space constraint or looking for max range
there isn’t enough of a delta to justify the price difference between the 3 and S short of some major “prestige” improvements all other things being equal.

I was saying that for us the 3 just wasn’t an option since we do a lot of long
road trips with dogs, and while I am sure Elon can train me, but at least for now I want either a heads up or something in front of the driver.

We switched from a well optioned A4 wagon and the S has the look and feel of a top end sedan, and we can carry more in it than we could in the A4.

We’ll probably be trading in our 5 year old A4 sedan for a 3 for our daily driver where the range and room needs are not as important.
 

iqless

Member
Mar 20, 2017
619
730
Atlantic US
I'm fairly certain the Free Ludicrous will go away with the refresh - it's clear that they've done it to prop up Model S sales which were faltering due to Model 3 + rumors of refresh.

When the refresh comes, inventory vehicles will probably get huge discounts, right? And we'll probably still be able to get the free ludicrous for those. So even if you're not super interested in the refresh, it might be a good idea to wait.
 
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willw64

Member
Jun 30, 2019
115
225
Colorado and Florida
My hunch is that if/when we see a updated Model S the UI will look more like the Model 3. It seems as if Elon’s vision of autonomous vehicles is about less is more, and that to further push adoption Tesla’s going forward will have “less to look at.”

As I said I am sure I can be trained not to have a either a heads up display or typical instrument cluster, but as is I much prefer the model S layout over the 3 which is another reason we were willing to pay a premium which in many cases is hard to justify. However, at the end of the day it was more about vehicle mission than layout or accessories.
 

jebinc

M3 LR AWD w/FSD and white premium interior
Jun 19, 2019
3,412
1,689
Seattle area
I waffled between the S and LR AWD M3 with premium white interior and FSD. While a smaller car, I found the M3 to have superior tech and more premium feel interior - so I bought (actually factory ordered) the M3. YMMV.
 
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rory breaker

Member
Aug 11, 2016
388
651
TX
If the redesign with new 400 mile drive train is very popular you might want to order hours ahead to get ahead in the queue. You never know, they might get thousands of orders quickly and later orders delayed past end of year.

Interesting - as in, as soon as we see rumors and pics that it’s actually coming, order an S, then the refresh comes out, and call and say change to refresh? Does that actually work? I would def want it ASAP.
 
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iqless

Member
Mar 20, 2017
619
730
Atlantic US
^^ I'm wondering that as well. I know that if you order a custom Tesla and the price changes right after (before you take delivery) you can call them and get a refund for the amount. Not sure how that would work for a refresh.
 
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wdolson

Supporting Member
Jul 24, 2015
7,637
10,256
Clark Co, WA
I don’t view it as a status symbol and that’s why I held off buying a Tesla as long as we did. I wasn’t precise enough in my reply and actually agree with you that unless you have a room/space constraint or looking for max range
there isn’t enough of a delta to justify the price difference between the 3 and S short of some major “prestige” improvements all other things being equal.

I was saying that for us the 3 just wasn’t an option since we do a lot of long
road trips with dogs, and while I am sure Elon can train me, but at least for now I want either a heads up or something in front of the driver.

We switched from a well optioned A4 wagon and the S has the look and feel of a top end sedan, and we can carry more in it than we could in the A4.

We’ll probably be trading in our 5 year old A4 sedan for a 3 for our daily driver where the range and room needs are not as important.

Sorry if I understood. It does sound like we're pretty much on the same page. The S is the same wheel base and same width as my old Buick, so I'm used to the size, but I was looking at cars around the size of the M3 when I started looking. I could live with it, but I do like the larger car. The S also has a much more convenient cargo area than the 3.

I'm fairly certain the Free Ludicrous will go away with the refresh - it's clear that they've done it to prop up Model S sales which were faltering due to Model 3 + rumors of refresh.

When the refresh comes, inventory vehicles will probably get huge discounts, right? And we'll probably still be able to get the free ludicrous for those. So even if you're not super interested in the refresh, it might be a good idea to wait.

The problem with the free Ludicrous is it's only available on the Performance cars. I don't want a performance car, I would never launch it, with my wonky inner ear launching the standard S makes me queasy. So I would have to pay more for a Performance car, carry the extra weight of the larger motor for the life of the car and reduced range because of it. Then on top of that I would have to give up my free supercharging for life.

Offering me something "free" which will actually cost me quite a bit more both in initial price and ongoing expenses is not even worth consideration. If I had an interest in drag racing maybe I'd consider it, but they would have to offer me a pretty deep discount on the standard long range S before I'd even think about it more than a fraction of a second.

Interesting - as in, as soon as we see rumors and pics that it’s actually coming, order an S, then the refresh comes out, and call and say change to refresh? Does that actually work? I would def want it ASAP.

When there have been upgrades in the past, people who ordered the old version at just the right time got the new car. If the price went up, they got it at the old price. If it went down, they got the new price (but sometimes people need to ask to get the new price). Though people whose cars were too far into production got the last of the old car design and were often kind of bitter.

It's a gamble. If you end up a few cars on the wrong side of the line, you'll end up with the old design when you wanted the new.
 

Kenz

Member
Oct 10, 2017
326
255
Hebron, Indiana
Tesla is always improving the technology and will reduce the price of Model S / X if they get efficiency and margin improvements.
They will need to continue progress on lowering battery cost to stay ahead of the coming competition from established auto makers.
My guess is that if they refresh the interiors to match the Model 3 screen they will save money in the long run on software development costs by being able to use the same software across all three models. Same can be said for the move to the new battery cells.
Streamlining production and limiting options are a way to improve efficiency and reduce cost.
 
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