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Model S range and interior update imminent?

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You're comparing today to a totally different situation, when the model S was not only grabbing large luxury sedan buyers, but people who only wanted a small sedan or less expensive car but had no other choice if they wanted an EV. If you look at the multi-year trend of large luxury sedan sales I've attached (source: goodcarbadcar.net), the model S created an unmistakable bulge in total segment sales when it was introduced, and now it's back down. It was all the Prius / Accord / 3 series owners moving up into the segment to buy the only good EV on the market. Now all those folks have the Model 3, and Model S sales are back to where they "should" be (but still #1).

Refresh it all you want, add FUSC, etc., but those sales are never coming back, unless Tesla kills the Model 3. There's just not that many people willing to spend a premium for a car, or wanting such a large sedan. For those who do, Model S still dominates.

And no matter what Musk may have stated in public (though I don't recall him ever stating this), I can't believe he or anyone on his team were dumb enough to think Model S sales could have been sustained after the Model 3 came out. Not with the data they have showing what cars people had been trading in for the Model S. Same for Model 3 sales (and Model X) when the Y comes out BTW - there will be a significant drop as people won't have to cross-shop to a different category to get a decent EV. Anything else is just wishful thinking.

Word Cloud example above...

RT
 
Word Cloud example above...

RT

i-do-not-think-it-means-what-you-think-it-means.jpg
 
During the last Earnings Call, Elon made a comment, then kinda back tracked, that the reason to keep the S and X was to spell SEXY. He also said that after the Y is in production, that S & X would be 5% or less of total Tesla production, and would not be that impactful on the company. So I really think there are very little efforts being put towards the S & X, and they're fine with their sales being reduced to 50-70k per year (i.e. just run 1 line instead of 2, less shits, etc). Makes sense to me to focus on the Y, pickup, etc. Even without a single change, I'm sure they'll keep selling at least 50-70k per year into the foreseeable future.
 
You're comparing today to a totally different situation, when the model S was not only grabbing large luxury sedan buyers, but people who only wanted a small sedan or less expensive car but had no other choice if they wanted an EV. If you look at the multi-year trend of large luxury sedan sales I've attached (source: goodcarbadcar.net), the model S created an unmistakable bulge in total segment sales when it was introduced, and now it's back down. It was all the Prius / Accord / 3 series owners moving up into the segment to buy the only good EV on the market. Now all those folks have the Model 3, and Model S sales are back to where they "should" be (but still #1).

Refresh it all you want, add FUSC, etc., but those sales are never coming back, unless Tesla kills the Model 3. There's just not that many people willing to spend a premium for a car, or wanting such a large sedan. For those who do, Model S still dominates.

And no matter what Musk may have stated in public (though I don't recall him ever stating this), I can't believe he or anyone on his team were dumb enough to think Model S sales could have been sustained after the Model 3 came out. Not with the data they have showing what cars people had been trading in for the Model S. Same for Model 3 sales (and Model X) when the Y comes out BTW - there will be a significant drop as people won't have to cross-shop to a different category to get a decent EV. Anything else is just wishful thinking.

Maybe I wasn't clear? You made the same point I was trying to make. Chasing the large luxury car market with the S/X is a fool's errand at this point. There isn't much of a market for large sedans anymore because people want better storage capacity. I think the Model S still sells close to the Model X in numbers because it's a hatchback and the Model X has some love it or hate it features.

There is a market for large SUVs in North America. The Big 3 sell a lot of them. If the Model S and X were price competitive with large SUVs from American car makers, they probably would compete well. That would be about a $10K premium over the Model 3/Y. the Model 3/Y will continue to dominate sales because that size range is one of the most desirable out there. The only sedans that break into the top 10 for car sales in the US over the last decade have been about the size of the Model 3. The rest of the top 10 sellers are all trucks and SUVs.

It's even more foolish to try and compete in the luxury sedan and CUV/SUV market now because there are new entries EVs coming that may suck for range, but do the luxury part much better than Tesla ever did.

Yeah, I stopped because GM didn't want to provide monthly updated. Several others followed suit, Tesla never did monthly. Not sure why the legacy automakers went that route, maybe to hide bad news, or obfuscate things.

I didn't know why you had stopped, but your numbers were the best I could find quickly.

I don't like to get into the numbers debate, but I occasionally find the banter entertaining. For example: The Model 3 U.S. deliveries in July exceeded all other plug in vehicles combined. The numbers story ends there, dead stop.

Then there are threads in TMC where people are claiming that ~200 Jaguar I-pace sales per month going forward are game changing :rolleyes:. They are definitely game changing, just not in the way Jaguar enthusiasts think.

Lots of word clouds, lots of threads, lots of announcements, but only one company is crushing it. Tesla.

Very true. The Model 3 is doing what I thought it would. It's tanking ICE sales while other brands of EV are just competing in the EV ghetto. I saw it happen with the Model S and X in the luxury niche. @Magellan55 's chart shows it better, but the Model S made the luxury sedan market bigger by drawing in a lot of people who could afford an S Class, but never wanted one. Now those people are buying Model 3s.

I even saw a story the other day that Tesla might be the only automakers that DOESN'T survive the transition to EV. Authors have an advanced degree in cognitive dissonance...

Tesla could be the only automaker that doesn't survive the Great Auto Disruption

These guys would have better luck working on political campaigns, where spewing alternate facts is the highlight on ones resume

RT

Oi!

Though Tesla does need to get their act together with service and support. They are ticking off a lot of customers with the inability to get a hold of a real human when you have a problem, issues getting spare parts, and their reluctance to support those who want to work on their own cars (they now have to due to some lawsuits, but they are only doing the bare minimum).

They have an outstanding product, but they fall down on customer support. Anyone in the industry making as many cars or more than Tesla has much better customer support. Getting a replacement bumper for a Mercedes S Class might cost you an arm and a leg, but it will take less than a week. For a Ford it might take you less than an hour at most only a few days. I was able to get new body parts for a Buick that had been out of production for 5 years with only a 3 day wait from the local dealer.
 
The idea that refreshing the Model S will take significant resources away from Model Y and Pickup is just plain stupid. It is a refresh not an all new vehicle that is needed. Need new articulating led headlights, led taillights, auto close front doors like Model X, and refreshed interior. Interiors don't require billions in engineering. There isn't a large demand for a 22nd century HUD. Also need the new battery pack architecture from Model 3 that has had no fires and can charge at 250 kWh.

US isn't the only big market for big premium sedans. Mercedes sells a shitload of S Class in China and South Korea.

Tesla needs to put on their big boy pants. Walk and chew gum at the same time.

As Tesla expands to new markets it should be able to absorb the sales lost to Model 3 cannibalization in established markets. 100k Gen II vehicles per year is not unreasonable. Mercedes sells many more S Class/GLS combined, largely because of China and South Korea where Tesla has made inroads but not clobbered them like the US. Europe and Japan are smaller markets for these large vehicles. Tesla still doesn't compete in South America,India,Russia,South Africa and with a few minor exceptions the Middle East.
 
During the last Earnings Call, Elon made a comment, then kinda back tracked, that the reason to keep the S and X was to spell SEXY. He also said that after the Y is in production, that S & X would be 5% or less of total Tesla production, and would not be that impactful on the company. So I really think there are very little efforts being put towards the S & X, and they're fine with their sales being reduced to 50-70k per year (i.e. just run 1 line instead of 2, less shits, etc). Makes sense to me to focus on the Y, pickup, etc. Even without a single change, I'm sure they'll keep selling at least 50-70k per year into the foreseeable future.

Every car manufacturer needs high end halo cars. They're never the biggest seller by volume but they usually disproportionately contribute to profits. And they create an "image" for the brand. You need something for the Model 3/Y drivers to aspire to.

The Model S, as it presently is, isn't doing a great job of that. The S was created to be cheap enough that a lot people could reach for it. Now, with the 3/Y, they can move it upscale. And yes... Tesla needs to be able to handle more than on project at a time.
 
Not trying to make excesses, but ramping up Model Y production along with a new factory in China, while also doing the pickup, semi, and roadster, sounds like a lot of walking and chewing gum!

I think the refresh is an issue for existing customers and the press (who are just looking for an excuse to throw shade on Tesla). I think most new people are wowed by ALL the Tesla models, including the S and X. I will say that Tesla drew in a ton of people who normally wouldn't have bought an S if the 3 was available (I'm one, for example). Love my S, but wouldn't have paid twice as much for it if the 3 was available. Not sure ANY kind of interior will bring back those sales...
 
Repeating from before:
The Raven drivetrain upgrades were what were most important to us. Would it be nice to have door pockets, ventilated seats, more color/interior choices, return of the sunroof etc.? Sure. But if those come with a Model 3 type screen and we lose the 4 customizable screens we have in the current Model S, that's a downgrade rather than an upgrade IMHO.

As for further drivetrain updates, I'm skeptical how soon they are coming given the other projects on Tesla's plate.
1) I'm inclined to take Elon's word that S&X are not getting the 3's 2170 batteries. There's a question of whether that would entail an expensive chassis redesign, plus I've read here that the 18650 is better for acceleration, which is a key differentiator not only vs. Model 3 but vs. high performance gas cars.
2) Maxwell tech will come sometime, but who knows when. That may enable faster charging, but for the next few years most supercharging will be at max 150kW. v3 chargers will be built in addition to, not replacing current superchargers. And past history tells us that the v3 introduction will be gradual.

As far as FUSC is concerned, it had been removed and been returned so many times for S&X that we owners have come to expect it. When we returned our S90D under RVG I intended to order a new Raven this year. But I was inclined to wait for an end-of-quarter promotion of FUSC. That announcement was made Saturday, so that's when I placed my order.

I agree that most new EV sales are going to Model 3 when a few years ago they went to Model S as the only game in town. I think many current Model S sales are to existing owners upgrading. Some of these owners are reluctant to give up FUSC, so I think it's a smart promotion that means more psychologically to many owners than it actually costs Tesla. Will they take it away again? My guess is yes when there is some kind of upgrade, while leaving FUSC in place to move the old inventory. But the lesson for prospective S/X buyers is to be patient and wait for FUSC to be offered.

Though Tesla does need to get their act together with service and support. They are ticking off a lot of customers with the inability to get a hold of a real human when you have a problem
We are lucky to live 3 miles from a service center. If I have question/problem I drive over there and talk to a human and for 3 years I was always treated well. We also had an Autopilot camera failure on the road home from Tahoe in 2017, and I reached a service center rep who diagnosed the problem over the air and directed us to the Rocklin service center an hour down the road.

We think the vast majority of Teslas are quite reliable. We cross our fingers that we don't get into a major accident though.
 
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I'm beginning to side with the conclusion here:


Because you get so little bang for the (much too much) extra buck you pay for the elongated (pun unintended) Model 3, the Model S sales will decline and soon the newest and best things are going to come to the Model 3 instead.

The new Roadster may become the tech introduction platform and the Model S dropped. I doubt they will want to introduce new tech to the highest volume car in the lineup.
 
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... So I really think there are very little efforts being put towards the S & X, and they're fine with their sales being reduced to 50-70k per year (i.e. just run 1 line instead of 2, less shits, etc). Makes sense to me to focus on the Y, pickup, etc. Even without a single change, I'm sure they'll keep selling at least 50-70k per year into the foreseeable future.

reducing restroom breaks is one way of improving efficiency i guess
 
They don’t want to have two separate UI designs when clearly 9 out of 10 will be 3/Y.

I see this mentioned frequently, but if that was the case, why did they put a portrait-oriented display in the Roadster 2020, which was unveiled after the 3/Y design. If it doesn’t make sense to have the S/X be portrait when the higher-volume 3/Y is landscape, it makes even less sense to have to maintain a portrait UI for the handful of roadsters that will be sold each year.

Elon did say that he doesn’t want too much of a common “theme” across designs, whether that holds true for interior as well as exterior (and whether he changes his mind as he’s apt to do), no one knows, but wouldn’t it make sense to have a couple lines?
 
They already made the UI changes needed to unify Model S/X and Model 3, it was all part of version 9 which dropped the top/bottom window mechanism of all prior versions. Changes in layout for portrait vs. landscape are easy; no need to put landscape screen in Model S/X unless interior designer wants too.
 
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The screen on the S/X looks much more planned than the 3. the 3 looks like an aftermarket add on.

I hope they don't go with landscape orientation and keep the instrument cluster like they have now. I also hope they go back to the split screen capability they had on the previous versions of the firmware. I hate the current setup and I liked having black behind the top of screen icons. They tend to get lost in the map now.

I also think the map controls disappearing after a few seconds is a bad design. If I want to zoom the map, I need to take my eyes off the road to touch the screen, then take my eyes off the road again and scan the screen to find the zoom control, then touch the screen again to zoom the screen. The controls that you might use while driving should be on screen all the time and should have high contrast with the background.
 
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