Model S range and interior update imminent?

[Altair7]

E-tron owners report the opposite. With a physical mirror moving the head will give different perspectives/coverage, but with a camera, the perspective is fixed until adjusted.

Rapidly moving ones head can in some instances induce vestibular orientation. As any instrument pilot will tell you, this is a very bad thing. That's why aviation instruments are designed to allow a pilot to scan important information with eye movement only.

And of course, with some people when the head moves, the torso and arms follow to a small degree (people with arthritis for example). Since the hand(s) are on the steering wheel, they wander in their lane.

 

[Tiger]

The S/X prices in EU are going up, which this refresh is not an "optimization" refresh, it's something they think will excite buers at a higher price point.

 

[henderrj]

Tesla is still a fairly small company compared to the rest of the industry.
.

Your points are well taken, and I am a great Tesla fan, but they make a paultry four models! Even little Mazda makes a lot more than that. Tesla has the resources to update their first two high volume vehicles. I think it's crazy not to. Indeed I think it would be just plain stupid to drop to two models, even with the pickup coming out soon. They've got to get these two updated and viable again. Just do it Elon!

 

[GlmnAlyAirCar]

That's because the thread was started by Elon........(3 Months maybe.....6 Months definitely....Still waiting 3.5 years Later....)

It will always be imminent no matter how long we wait.

 

[MP3Mike]

This should end the speculation on the structural pack and 4680 use in the Model S/X soon:

Elon Musk@elonmusk
11m

Giga Berlin-Brandenburg will be the first to use our new structural pack architecture, 4680 (world’s most advanced cells, made on-site), both front & rear body castings & advanced paint shop. Warning: with so much new technology, production timing is naturally harder to predict.

 

[pabla]

This should end the speculation on the structural pack and 4680 use in the Model S/X soon:

I don't know if this proves anything, we know eventually the new 4680 cells will be in the S/X but no one knows when. Even Elon himself said production timing is harder to predict. But I could be misinterpreting his tweet!

 

[MP3Mike]

I don't know if this proves anything, we know eventually the new 4680 cells will be in the S/X but no one knows when. Even Elon himself said production timing is harder to predict. But I could be misinterpreting his tweet!

It flat out says Berlin will be the first to use 4680s. So until Berlin starts pumping out Model Ys with 4680s you aren't going to see them in a Model S. (So certainly not in January with the "refresh" that everyone thinks is happening.)

 

[pabla]

It flat out says Berlin will be the first to use 4680s. So until Berlin starts pumping out Model Ys with 4680s you aren't going to see them in a Model S. (So certainly not in January with the "refresh" that everyone thinks is happening.)

This makes me feel much better, just got word my MS is here

 

[sillydriver]

I disagree.

Plaid is 100% about the performance, not the looks, and nothing not performance related is going to stifle the demand.

As one who put down a first day deposit on the plaid I really hope the looks are differentiated, even if only by ducts for brake cooling, a bigger diffuser, possibly fender flairs and a spoiler. Better would be new styling that hints of the roadster design language.

 

[ucmndd]

As one who put down a first day deposit on the plaid I really hope the looks are differentiated, even if only by ducts for brake cooling, a bigger diffuser, possibly fender flairs and a spoiler. Better would be new styling that hints of the roadster design language.

Allow me to clarify a bit, I think there will be some visual changes and distinction, namely those you mention in the name of performance.

What I don't think is that any significant number of buyers who ordered a Plaid are going to change their mind, cancel their orders, and buy the slower version if a refresh comes out first - which is my interpretation of what @jaguar36 was suggesting.

 

[sillydriver]

Allow me to clarify a bit, I think there will be some visual changes and distinction, namely those you mention in the name of performance.

What I don't think is that any significant number of buyers who ordered a Plaid are going to change their mind, cancel their orders, and buy the slower version if a refresh comes out first - which is my interpretation of what @jaguar36 was suggesting.

I completely agree. I certainly wouldn't cancel mine, particularly since it would be reasonable to expect Plaid-specific aero (just as the Nurburgring cars had) as you point out. With expectations for some visual differentiation, I don't see why any reservation holders would cancel because of a prior refresh.

 

[ICUDoc]

As one who put down a first day deposit on the plaid I really hope the looks are differentiated, even if only by ducts for brake cooling, a bigger diffuser, possibly fender flairs and a spoiler. Better would be new styling that hints of the roadster design language.

I hope you can get what you want. And we both want a wonderful new interior makeover, but, externally, for me:
Total Stealth, please.
I want the Taycan owner to wonder "is that a P60 or one of those new Plaid things?"
And then I will show her which one it is .....

 

[wdolson]

Rapidly moving ones head can in some instances induce vestibular orientation. As any instrument pilot will tell you, this is a very bad thing. That's why aviation instruments are designed to allow a pilot to scan important information with eye movement only.

And of course, with some people when the head moves, the torso and arms follow to a small degree (people with arthritis for example). Since the hand(s) are on the steering wheel, they wander in their lane.

Inexperienced drivers can do this too. I remember doing it a few times when I was learning to drive.

Your points are well taken, and I am a great Tesla fan, but they make a paultry four models! Even little Mazda makes a lot more than that. Tesla has the resources to update their first two high volume vehicles. I think it's crazy not to. Indeed I think it would be just plain stupid to drop to two models, even with the pickup coming out soon. They've got to get these two updated and viable again. Just do it Elon!

The S/X aren't really much of a profit center for Tesla anymore. A few years ago their cost of production was $70K for an S 100D. It's obviously lower now, but they are selling them for $70K, they can't be making that much per car now.

The size of the S/X are not very popular in the current market. The Model 3/Y are the sweet spot for size in cars. Except luxury cars, most of the cars close to the S have been discontinued because they just didn't sell well. I think I saw some numbers on Taurus sales from 2000 to around 2017. It went from several hundred thousand cars a year to about 40K. The people who used to buy large cars are now buying trucks or they downsized to a smaller car.

The amortization of costs for a major redesign of the Model S/X is going to take a long time at the price point people are willing to pay and demand. It might be worth it if the high price tag for the Plaid S can pay a bunch of those costs up front. That will be a very high margin car. If they can do a redesign that makes the 3/Y a flexible platform and the S/X can be made from it with only minor changes, then a major redesign might pay for itself in a reasonable time.

It flat out says Berlin will be the first to use 4680s. So until Berlin starts pumping out Model Ys with 4680s you aren't going to see them in a Model S. (So certainly not in January with the "refresh" that everyone thinks is happening.)

With only an 18 day shut down with 7 days of that being the Christmas/New Years week, I don't expect much in the way of changes. Maybe a new cupholder, or some changes down in the guts of the car that make things more efficient to manufacture or something. Big changes are not coming in January.

The price hike in Europe may also be part of the restructuring of shipping that will happen with Berlin comes online. They will be shipping far fewer cars to Europe and it will cost more per car to ship.

 

[aerodyne]

Inexperienced drivers can do this too. I remember doing it a few times when I was learning to drive.



The S/X aren't really much of a profit center for Tesla anymore. A few years ago their cost of production was $70K for an S 100D. It's obviously lower now, but they are selling them for $70K, they can't be making that much per car now.

The size of the S/X are not very popular in the current market. The Model 3/Y are the sweet spot for size in cars. Except luxury cars, most of the cars close to the S have been discontinued because they just didn't sell well. I think I saw some numbers on Taurus sales from 2000 to around 2017. It went from several hundred thousand cars a year to about 40K. The people who used to buy large cars are now buying trucks or they downsized to a smaller car.

The amortization of costs for a major redesign of the Model S/X is going to take a long time at the price point people are willing to pay and demand. It might be worth it if the high price tag for the Plaid S can pay a bunch of those costs up front. That will be a very high margin car. If they can do a redesign that makes the 3/Y a flexible platform and the S/X can be made from it with only minor changes, then a major redesign might pay for itself in a reasonable time.



With only an 18 day shut down with 7 days of that being the Christmas/New Years week, I don't expect much in the way of changes. Maybe a new cupholder, or some changes down in the guts of the car that make things more efficient to manufacture or something. Big changes are not coming in January.

The price hike in Europe may also be part of the restructuring of shipping that will happen with Berlin comes online. They will be shipping far fewer cars to Europe and it will cost more per car to ship.

^^^This...I expect maybe a new center console and a revised MCU2... Remember how few changes the Raven had.

 

[Tiger]

As one who put down a first day deposit on the plaid I really hope the looks are differentiated, even if only by ducts for brake cooling, a bigger diffuser, possibly fender flairs and a spoiler. Better would be new styling that hints of the roadster design language.

Don't worry about differentiation, you can always buy a bunch of these to make yours different:

Hell, I'll even propose we do a group-buy to get them on the cheap!

 

[strider]

With only an 18 day shut down with 7 days of that being the Christmas/New Years week, I don't expect much in the way of changes. Maybe a new cupholder, or some changes down in the guts of the car that make things more efficient to manufacture or something. Big changes are not coming in January.

I don't really care on way or the other, but they could completely redo the body and/or interior and get it in within an 18 day shutdown. The stamping machines run in batches so there is downtime there they could use to create/tune the new panels while the assembly line was still running. Same for the bumpers. Chassis attachments points wouldn't change so it would just be small tweaks for the workers/robots to grab the new parts properly. Same could be said for an interior refresh, though depending on how far they go could involve larger changes on the line.

Yes, I enjoy stirring the pot. I'm also leaning towards moving to an X in a year if it goes Plaid or gets a further range boost.

 

[Tiger]

I don't really care on way or the other, but they could completely redo the body and/or interior and get it in within an 18 day shutdown. The stamping machines run in batches so there is downtime there they could use to create/tune the new panels while the assembly line was still running. Same for the bumpers. Chassis attachments points wouldn't change so it would just be small tweaks for the workers/robots to grab the new parts properly. Same could be said for an interior refresh, though depending on how far they go could involve larger changes on the line.

I hear you, bro, a gentle S-curve, totally doable, perfect panel gaps from the get-go.

 

[jaguar36]

Chassis attachments points wouldn't change so it would just be small tweaks for the workers/robots to grab the new parts properly.

Its not just changing the body panels, the whole car needs to be redesigned. For one thing the rear quarter panels are structural, so you can't significantly change the look of the car. For another the chassis is what really needs to change. Remeber this car was designed in 2011-2012 by a tiny team for a market that didn't exist. They did an extremely good job, but so much has changed since then. They kluged a second motor in where more batteries were intended to go. They stuffed in another 20% more batteries into the same pack. They put in a stupid center console. They removed the 3rd row seats. They've made a ton of small changes incrementally, but at some point you need to sit down and do a major redesign so you aren't stuck with all those decisions that were made a decade ago.

There is no way Tesla would launch a major redesign without having the new flagship ready to go.

 

[Bill Price]

Don't worry about differentiation, you can always buy a bunch of these to make yours different:

Hell, I'll even propose we do a group-buy to get them on the cheap!

Where's the love for the three or four Buick portholes that I see on so many hooptymobiles?

 

[strider]

Its not just changing the body panels, the whole car needs to be redesigned. For one thing the rear quarter panels are structural, so you can't significantly change the look of the car. For another the chassis is what really needs to change. Remeber this car was designed in 2011-2012 by a tiny team for a market that didn't exist. They did an extremely good job, but so much has changed since then. They kluged a second motor in where more batteries were intended to go. They stuffed in another 20% more batteries into the same pack. They put in a stupid center console. They removed the 3rd row seats. They've made a ton of small changes incrementally, but at some point you need to sit down and do a major redesign so you aren't stuck with all those decisions that were made a decade ago.

There is no way Tesla would launch a major redesign without having the new flagship ready to go.

I don't disagree with anything you're saying. My point was that they could make substantial visual/cosmetic changes without a long line shutdown.