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Model S range and interior update imminent?

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This was covered on the earnings call. Basically, selling all the inventory cars helped the balance sheet during the model 3 ramp.
Ok, but not selling any cars for a quarter seems like strange way to balance the books (on the extreme you could argue shutting down the company would also balance it, $0 in, $0 out - all balanced, no loses, which would be an improvement to current per quarter loss, but I doubt something the investors want).

The question here really is why they didn't replenish the inventory, not why they sold the cars (selling more always helps balance the accounting sheets unless they lose money on every car).
 
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Ok, but not selling any cars for a quarter seems like strange way to balance the books (on the extreme you could argue shutting down the company would also balance it, $0 in, $0 out - all balanced, no loses, which would be an improvement to current per quarter loss, but I doubt something the investors want).

The question here really is why they didn't replenish the inventory, not why they sold the cars (selling more always helps balance the accounting sheets unless they lose money on every car).

The only logical explanation is that Elon is packing things up to move to Mars :)
 
I think it is fairly obvious what is happening here, I promise to eat crow (or my boring company hat?) if I am wrong about this though.

  1. Delaying to hit 200k US deliveries until July:
    • Dual motor Model 3 going to Canada earlier than US
    • Deliveries of S and X delayed to June (enough below the 200k threshold that they can still sell some in the US but not for a whole quarter)
    • The amount of additional sales with an extra quarter of the $7500 credit is massive. 25k S & X plus 50k 3's (assuming they hit the 5k per week target) equals an extra half a billion dollars in rebates to Tesla owners
  2. Refresh coming - Not sure if X or S or both but both would make sense since this is a great opportunity to shut down the factory and re-tool while they delay deliveries:
    • @DMC_Ryan said he had some inside knowledge but didn't announce on the air (good move he didn't because the announcement didn't happen, his integrity is impeccable) but I'm guessing it was a refresh.
 
So what's the theory for Tesla draining all their inventory before entering an almost full quarter of no new Model S/X deliveries? They are looking to improve their bottom line by putting their delivery specialists on furlough?

Tesla is currently delivering more Model 3s per month in the US than they delivered Model S a year ago. I think the delivery people are busy enough.
 
Tesla is currently delivering more Model 3s per month in the US than they delivered Model S a year ago. I think the delivery people are busy enough.
They are still going to lose sales by stopping production of S/X while having absolutely no inventory, which means a new customer cannot get a car for 4 months or more (18 if waiting for M3). I'm trying to convince my wife it's worth the wait, but not sure I will succeed. Once she finds out she'll have no car until June (haven't had the heart to tell her yet), she might just opt for a Lexus or a Porsche, yes ICE, but available much sooner than June.
 
They are still going to lose sales by stopping production of S/X while having absolutely no inventory, which means a new customer cannot get a car for 4 months or more (18 if waiting for M3). I'm trying to convince my wife it's worth the wait, but not sure I will succeed. Once she finds out she'll have no car until June (haven't had the heart to tell her yet), she might just opt for a Lexus or a Porsche, yes ICE, but available much sooner than June.

You can get a used model S, 2016/17 90D this time
 
I think it is fairly obvious what is happening here, I promise to eat crow (or my boring company hat?) if I am wrong about this though.

  1. Delaying to hit 200k US deliveries until July:
    • Dual motor Model 3 going to Canada earlier than US
    • Deliveries of S and X delayed to June (enough below the 200k threshold that they can still sell some in the US but not for a whole quarter)
    • The amount of additional sales with an extra quarter of the $7500 credit is massive. 25k S & X plus 50k 3's (assuming they hit the 5k per week target) equals an extra half a billion dollars in rebates to Tesla owners
  2. Refresh coming - Not sure if X or S or both but both would make sense since this is a great opportunity to shut down the factory and re-tool while they delay deliveries:
    • @DMC_Ryan said he had some inside knowledge but didn't announce on the air (good move he didn't because the announcement didn't happen, his integrity is impeccable) but I'm guessing it was a refresh.

I think #1 is very unlikely. #2 is interesting - what context was DMC_Ryans comments in? Real curious what info he would have that’s not already out there
 
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personally, i think it's because of model 3 ramp. ms and mx are known quantities, so spreading sales out a bit over the year can be tolerated.
however, it's clearly all-hands-on-deck to get manufacturing up and running to fulfill even a fraction of existing m3 orders. tsla will take a big hit if they show another quarter of low production volume.
 
You can get a used model S, 2016/17 90D this time
I have been looking around. Very limited selection for what we're looking for - 75D, white vehicle with white or gray leather with winter package, no EAP of FSD (techincally don't care if it has it, but not willing to pay for it until it does everything Elon says it will). Even considering an X though will have to get an overnight test drive next week when our kids are back to school to see if it would work for my wife's daily activities - I know for example the 6 seater will not work as she needs a way to fold both rows flat for weekend projects.
 
Yes Yes, demand was so strong for the Model S and Model X it required massive discounts at the end of the 2017 to get rid of them... Last I checked and abundance of inventory does not mean high demand.

Once again Tesla spin, do people really believe there is a high demand for Model S and Xs??

Tesla stopped making Model S and Model X so the people that build them could work on building Model 3's. Tesla has never built 5000 cars in a week does anyone believe they can build that many Model 3's and continue making Model S's and X's in ONE PLANT? Past stories have stated that the Fremont plant was out of space. (from Elons mouth).

Tesla's real capacity problem? Too many employees

If Telsa had bought another plant strictly for Model 3 production then maybe they would be up to speed by now. Instead they are trying to cram another line amongst a plant set up for a two completely different vehicles that dont share parts.

Current situation is not good, its one big *hit show.. building a cheap car was not a good idea.





Tesla is saying now that it´s higher demand on Model S and X that have push the delivery time to June wish could be because of the slow Model 3 ramp or just that Tesla is just getter more known now then Model 3 get mush attention in media. Tesla said in the Q4 letter that Model 3 drag more people to there stores and that it lead to Model S and X purchase.

Tesla extends delay on new Model S and Model X orders, says high demand is creating a backlog
 
I have been looking around. Very limited selection for what we're looking for - 75D, white vehicle with white or gray leather with winter package, no EAP of FSD (techincally don't care if it has it, but not willing to pay for it until it does everything Elon says it will). Even considering an X though will have to get an overnight test drive next week when our kids are back to school to see if it would work for my wife's daily activities - I know for example the 6 seater will not work as she needs a way to fold both rows flat for weekend projects.

best wishes with the search, by the way there are 90D with AP1 like mine.
 
@DMC_Ryan confirmed this suspicion in his podcast this week.
I think it is fairly obvious what is happening here, I promise to eat crow (or my boring company hat?) if I am wrong about this though.

  1. Delaying to hit 200k US deliveries until July:
    • Dual motor Model 3 going to Canada earlier than US
    • Deliveries of S and X delayed to June (enough below the 200k threshold that they can still sell some in the US but not for a whole quarter)
    • The amount of additional sales with an extra quarter of the $7500 credit is massive. 25k S & X plus 50k 3's (assuming they hit the 5k per week target) equals an extra half a billion dollars in rebates to Tesla owners
  2. Refresh coming - Not sure if X or S or both but both would make sense since this is a great opportunity to shut down the factory and re-tool while they delay deliveries:
    • @DMC_Ryan said he had some inside knowledge but didn't announce on the air (good move he didn't because the announcement didn't happen, his integrity is impeccable) but I'm guessing it was a refresh.
@DMC_Ryan confirmed this suspicion of rumor in his podcast discussion this week.
 
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Yes Yes, demand was so strong for the Model S and Model X it required massive discounts at the end of the 2017 to get rid of them... Last I checked and abundance of inventory does not mean high demand.

Once again Tesla spin, do people really believe there is a high demand for Model S and Xs??

Tesla stopped making Model S and Model X so the people that build them could work on building Model 3's. Tesla has never built 5000 cars in a week does anyone believe they can build that many Model 3's and continue making Model S's and X's in ONE PLANT? Past stories have stated that the Fremont plant was out of space. (from Elons mouth).

As someone pointed out up thread, Model S production has not stopped, they just switched over to making right hand drive cars.

Tesla's real capacity problem? Too many employees

If Telsa had bought another plant strictly for Model 3 production then maybe they would be up to speed by now. Instead they are trying to cram another line amongst a plant set up for a two completely different vehicles that dont share parts.

Current situation is not good, its one big *hit show.. building a cheap car was not a good idea.

The Model 3 and Model S/X do not share too many major components, but I'm sure they share a lot of smaller parts. I believe Elon said the Model S/X now has the motors and inverter from the Model 3 and the autopilot hardware is pretty much the same across all products. I suspect a number of other components are also shared.

Building a reasonably priced, mass production car was always part of the plan. Staying an exclusive high end brand was never seriously considered.

One of the big challenges for any car start up is to figure out how to actually build cars profitably. That's where most car companies started since the 30s have failed. GM, Ford, VW, etc. learned to mass produce cars decades ago. Hyundai learned to do it selling cheap poor quality cars to the third world. The more complex a machine, the more difficult it is to make it reliably.

The biggest error with the Model X roll out was they didn't include enough input from manufacturing and ended up with a very difficult to build car. The Model 3 is far easier to build, but every new design has problems. Whenever a company introduces a new car design, there are always problems the first year or two. And that's from companies who have been doing it for a century. Toyota always tends to be among the most reliable cars because they change designs the slowest among the major auto makers.

When rolling out any new product, the thing that bites you the hardest is usually the thing you didn't think was going to be a problem. It becomes a problem because you didn't think it through. One of the problems with the Model 3 has been welding steel, which is an old tech that every other car company mastered decades ago, but Tesla's manufacturing didn't think it through because it was old tech, but it was new to Tesla and it became a problem.

One of the problems at the Tesla plant with parking is they have build more buildings that were there in the NUMMI days. To build new buildings usually requires taking out parking and/or storage space. When they built the new buildings, they should have built a parking garage, but they may not have thought that through because it was an old idea.

Tesla is definitely not perfect, they have made mistakes at almost every step getting here, but they have always overcome whatever the latest obstacle was. Every company has a corporate culture which has strong points and weak points. One of Tesla's strong points is a willingness to flex as the situation demands. Whatever needs to happen to fix the latest problem, it usually happens, even if it's a radical change.
 
One of the problems at the Tesla plant with parking is they have build more buildings that were there in the NUMMI days. To build new buildings usually requires taking out parking and/or storage space. When they built the new buildings, they should have built a parking garage, but they may not have thought that through because it was an old idea.

They are moving tons of people to another facility in April IIRC
 
best wishes with the search, by the way there are 90D with AP1 like mine.
A CPO search for a white 60D,75D,85D,90D, or 100D MS yielded 0 matches - and that's not even considering any other criteria like our two must-haves - white and winter package, and two must-not-haves - black seats and 21" tires. On the bright side, Tesla found us an unclaimed car about to enter production (likely a planned inventory/demo car or a cancelled order) which was almost exactly what we would order today, so I didn't waste any time and went with it. Car should be here by end of March, so happy wife, happy life... :)
 
They are moving tons of people to another facility in April IIRC

This new location ... Tesla is moving 1,500 employees to its new Fremont offices

“Energy, sales, service and marketing workers, along with general and administrative employees,
will be housed at Tesla’s new Fremont offices, the company stated.”

screen-shot-2017-10-06-at-9-52-54-am.jpg

Also considering boring a tunnel to another location ... Elon Musk is considering a Boring Company tunnel at Tesla’s Fremont factory

fremont-page.jpg
 
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