Model S range and interior update imminent?

[svp6]

But then, if I understand you correctly, your focus is not really on the "long range" aspect of the iPace. The point I was trying to make was in reference to people/analysts suggesting this is the first long range luxury EV to compete with MS, with stress on long range. Without a robust fast charging network, I doubt the long range aspect is really a competition. The luxury, quietness aspects certainly can be. (Hence this thread, right?)

Aren't there other (hybrid, plugins?) luxury cars that are already in competition in those aspects? iPace is hardly the first there.

Agree that long range is not going to be Jag's best feature. In fact, I would wait to see real life range - if it loses a third of the range in winter that is cutting it a little short even for me.

As for the plug-in hybrids, none I tested came even close to the Tesla acceleration - including the Porsche versions (tried the e-hybrid Panamera). There is always that tiny lag when the turbo has to spool. The Jag is the first to really come closer to the excitement of Tesla driving.

 

[MP3Mike]

The price on the S/X should see some interesting changes what with a 10% increase in the price of Al.

Really? Even if a Model S was made of 100% aluminum a 10% cost increase would only be ~$500. And we know a good portion of a Tesla is not aluminum/steel, so the increase would likely be a lot less.

 

[P85Dave]

Really? Even if a Model S was made of 100% aluminum a 10% cost increase would only be ~$500. And we know a good portion of a Tesla is not aluminum/steel, so the increase would likely be a lot less.

But Tesla would be affected by this monumentally stupid decision more because it affects their profit margin. That extra $500 reduces their profit by a greater percentage than the $500 as a percentage of the sale price.

Having the cost go up because of some dumb targeted tax is horrible for businessed because suddenly a part of your profit ends up going to pay for it.

Let's hope tere's no tariff added for anything that does not burn coal. Would actually not surprise me at this point

 

[MP3Mike]

That extra $500 reduces their profit by a greater percentage than the $500 as a percentage of the sale price.

Yeah, a $500 increase would reduce their profit by ~2.5%, but my guess is the difference would be like half of that. I can't see Tesla raising the price $250 to regain the 1.25% gross profit. What I can see them doing is delaying, or reducing, planned price cuts, or adding standard features to the car to make up for it over time. (Not that there are many options left that I could see Tesla making standard now.)

 

[P85Dave]

Yeah, a $500 increase would reduce their profit by ~2.5%, but my guess is the difference would be like half of that. I can't see Tesla raising the price $250 to regain the 1.25% gross profit. What I can see them doing is delaying, or reducing, planned price cuts, or adding standard features to the car to make up for it over time. (Not that there are many options left that I could see Tesla making standard now.)

I agree. Either way the tariff is monumentally dumb decision that is going to cost businesses in the US that import raw materials.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Really? Even if a Model S was made of 100% aluminum a 10% cost increase would only be ~$500. And we know a good portion of a Tesla is not aluminum/steel, so the increase would likely be a lot less.

Your math is off by a factor of 10. 10% of base price of $70,000 = $7000 Still as you say it won't be anywhere near that, because there's so much other stuff going on with these cars. Probably closer to the $100 range, maybe? Don't know aluminum stock prices well enough to say. It should fair better than the Model 3 which uses a lot more of the higher tariff steel, which seems likely to come in around $200 and change. Nearing %1 on the base M3 is nothing to dismiss, as that's already fighting for any sort of margin to start with.

 

[MP3Mike]

Your math is off by a factor of 10. 10% of base price of $70,000 = $7000

I was basing it on the cost of raw materials not the finished product. 2.3 tons of aluminum doesn't cost $70k.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I was basing it on the cost of raw materials not the finished product. 2.3 tons of aluminum doesn't cost $70k.

Ah, I see.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Ah, I see.

Actually, digging through prices for Al stock pieces (plates, bars, etc.) it looks like the prices are in the range of $30/kg. So for the 190kg in a Model S the $5000 * 10%, assuming bulk discounts, for an increase in material costs to Tesla of $500 looks like it's in line.

Ouch. That's something that's pretty hard to just eat.

 

[mkspeedr]

After reading how well the non dual motor performed on the race track. It is clear the P version 3 will eat into the sales of the S.

The S will need an upgrade when the dual motor 3 is released. (OK, it will not happen that quick but I like to dream).

 

[P85Dave]

After reading how well the non dual motor performed on the race track. It is clear the P version 3 will eat into the sales of the S.

The S will need an upgrade when the dual motor 3 is released. (OK, it will not happen that quick but I like to dream).

I agree. Especially because I think some bought the extremely large Model S because that was the only available option. I bet some would prefer Tesla performance in a smaller package.

I'm hoping by the time dual motor Model 3 is announced, we'll start seeing elements of the Model S refresh.

 

[meomyo]

Feel exactly the same, no cars match the Tesla interior yet, including Q7, when it comes to a high tech feel. Still beautiful and modern exterior. But I got mine a year ago, I also understand 2013 owners have grown tired of it by now. I do not believe in a major upgrade or new S, a profitable Y would be the smart choice to invest in. Smaller changes like new seats, new interior panels, faster mcu, new rims and rear lights on the other hand will come.

the shape/style of the s is pretty nice. I think just keep adding to interior changes will likely happen. The frame and body style s are cool and look great. Add some diff color options too maybe. The interior is sparse but many seem to like that. Adjustible seatbelt height/lighted vanity mirrors/grab handles and clothes hooks are all things that should have been in there already.Why they werent is really odd. Faster screen would be obvious too.
Also diff center console would make sence and would be easy. I think adding an angled screen below where the main screen is(where thetray is and the length of the drawer with the sliding door is) would be cool( i see on the jag ipace its alrady a screen there with side buttons)

 

[meomyo]

Market forces are finally starting to shift, producing some real competition on EV and autonomous, namely Jaguar I-pace (check out that interior) and Cadillac Super Cruise (totally different approach, probably a safer UI implementation).

I'm very eager to see how Tesla steps up on the next iteration of their first vehicle, the Model S

View attachment 283921

competition is good for tesla. I think a screen that goes from the top of the dash like in s down and angled like the lower screen on the ipace would look nice in the s. Or i guess dual screens there- lower screen for heater/air/music controls stuff. And larger screen for nav.

 

[meomyo]

I agree with the first part: they manage US deliveries to not cross 200k until July. That keeps the full tax credit in place until December.

But then for January and later deliveries demand may fall off a cliff when the tax credit is cut in half. Endowment effect etc. See georgia, Hong Kong etc.
So they need another demand lever to pull. A refresh is one very good demand lever to pull at that time.

unless the refresh can be done in a way that it actually LOWERs mfring costs so significantly that it pays for itself quickly... But I doubt that. The refresh is likely costly and that investment will better payoff when it is used to generate demand after the tax credit is cut in half.

If they hadn't constrained themselves on S/X battery supply for the year, I would hope that they could do the refresh early and milk the full tax credit for as much as possible in second half of 2018 by generating more demand, and more supply, of S and X. But it seems they can't because they limited their battery supply for s and x to ~100k for the year.

The shrinking tax credit, and model 3 exposure, and long model 3 wait times for new buyers, is likely all the demand generation they need to sell that 100k of fixed supply of S and X.

tesla should just lower s prices...say by 20k...the 3-35-50k s- 60-90k.

 

[meomyo]

After reading how well the non dual motor performed on the race track. It is clear the P version 3 will eat into the sales of the S.

The S will need an upgrade when the dual motor 3 is released. (OK, it will not happen that quick but I like to dream).

i say dont offer a model 3 p version at all. Or even an lr model. These 2 things will canablize model s sales.

 

[sandpiper]

Really? Even if a Model S was made of 100% aluminum a 10% cost increase would only be ~$500. And we know a good portion of a Tesla is not aluminum/steel, so the increase would likely be a lot less.

Uh huh. And how much profit is normally in s vehicle, once you’ve fully costed including all overheads and such? If you think that this sortof thing doesn’t matter then you know squat about the Auto industry.

 

[Sousagil90D]

I don't think we will have a S/X update this year for 2 reasons. First because model 3 is ramping up, and second and most important because Tesla knows they can't match build quality with legacy automakers, so they will let them start producing the first wave of long range electric cars and then hit them hard with all the tech they've got so they will look once again, outdated. I'm thinking 300kw charging with 130kw battery, futuristic hud and stuff like that.

 

[Xenoilphobe]

I just want it to be able to out launch any car and have 500 miles of range and handle like a P85+ and be able to take it on a track to race as well. While I'm dreaming, I want it to have wings too and recharge in five minutes.

 

[Electricious]

I don't think we will have a S/X update this year for 2 reasons. First because model 3 is ramping up, and second and most important because Tesla knows they can't match build quality with legacy automakers, so they will let them start producing the first wave of long range electric cars and then hit them hard with all the tech they've got so they will look once again, outdated. I'm thinking 300kw charging with 130kw battery, futuristic hud and stuff like that.

This assumes Tesla would be okay with losing market share to others.

I very much doubt it. I think Tesla would prefer to be two steps ahead each step along the way.

 

[wdolson]

I agree with the first part: they manage US deliveries to not cross 200k until July. That keeps the full tax credit in place until December.

But then for January and later deliveries demand may fall off a cliff when the tax credit is cut in half. Endowment effect etc. See georgia, Hong Kong etc.
So they need another demand lever to pull. A refresh is one very good demand lever to pull at that time.

unless the refresh can be done in a way that it actually LOWERs mfring costs so significantly that it pays for itself quickly... But I doubt that. The refresh is likely costly and that investment will better payoff when it is used to generate demand after the tax credit is cut in half.

If they hadn't constrained themselves on S/X battery supply for the year, I would hope that they could do the refresh early and milk the full tax credit for as much as possible in second half of 2018 by generating more demand, and more supply, of S and X. But it seems they can't because they limited their battery supply for s and x to ~100k for the year.

The shrinking tax credit, and model 3 exposure, and long model 3 wait times for new buyers, is likely all the demand generation they need to sell that 100k of fixed supply of S and X.

The phase out of the tax credit will likely affect the high end of Tesla's market a lot more than the Model 3 and Y. The 3 and Y are aimed at the people who don't earn enough to owe $7500 in federal taxes. Some 3/Y buyers will, but the bulk won't. If you factor in the cost of ownership, the 3/Y is very competitive with the middle of the ICE market. When I started shopping, I was looking at $30K-$40K cars. Most mid-range family cars, if you go with the higher trim models easily put you in the high $30s if not into the low $40s.

I suspect when the tax credit starts to run out, Tesla will announce that they were able to save a lot of money per vehicle through automation, lower costs, etc. and they are passing that savings on to the customer. They probably will generate some cost savings as they apply lessons learned form the Model 3 production to the S/X, but they might decide to trim their margin a little to keep sales up on their higher end vehicles. In the end the customer will probably be spending about the same for the car, they just won't be getting part of it from the government.