Model S range and interior update imminent?

Or maybe it isn't failure to admit?
Adding Model Y product line = 150% revenue growth on top of SX3
S refresh = 1% revenue growth
Which one do you think they are working on?

 

So Tesla is basically sunsetting the Model S/X. Great.

 

At the same time, he gave official guidance that S/X would be relatively flat. I have questions about how that works. If he said he expects sales to increase dramatically, the Osborne effect begins. But if he doesn’t, he’s potentially giving lower than truly expected guidance.

Of course, an interior refresh or battery pack change probably doesn’t mean as much to people outside this forum. Or maybe they otherwise would’ve projected a decline because of competition and cannibalization from the Model 3 (and even people holding out for a Y over an X).

 

Tesla will be fine with the 100kWh-battery in 2019. Range is better than any competition anyway and it will beat both Audi e-tron, I-pace and Merc EQC. It will also beat or be on par with the Taycan (95kWh pack). Nobody will care if the batteries are 2170 or 18650. It will be enough of an upgrade to change model designation to Standard Range and Extended range. 99% of the people buying an E-tron doesn't care about what type of batteries and what tech is underneath, they only look at the figures. And Tesla should not be different here.

If the 100kWh-pack can manage v3 supercharging speeds that is the most important factor. And it looks like it can since it is mentioned in the Q4 report that v3 is starting to roll out early this year. If they do, the 100kWh-pack MUST support the higher charging speed. Otherwise it doesn't make sense.

Where Tesla need to change is a few exterior/cosmetic updates. The rear end for Model S and maybe a slight re-design of headlights to make i fresh. Similar to a mid-cycle refresh by the Germans.

On top of this they could easily update the dashboard, new interior doors for Model S and a few luxury options on top of that. They can stick with the seats and maybe offer some new interior colors/trims.

 

Oh, wouldn't it be a great thing if a Model S offered 400 rated miles per charge? I'd trade my family's two-year old S75D in a heart beat, if they came out with that.

 

Well said @evster , especially the idea of a simple refresh. The MS tail lights are horrible and a result of a low production volume car and low capital budget for the joining of the clear lens to the housing. If you look closely you can see the metled plastic for the cheap hot plate welding process. Some German cars get their tail lamps and headlamps replaced every 2 to 3 years as a quick refresh. Tesla could do the same and laser weld or switch to an outer lens that hides the weld joint better (black perimeter as they did on the 3). In other words, some simple low cost ways improvements that do not disrupt the production line terribly but give a quick refresh / new feature.

 

A completely new battery with completely new chemistry might be in the offing for the Model S/X, different to the two types of battery being used now. No need to tip one's hand if the battery is still in the latter stages of development, and not quite ready for prime time.

 

https://electrek.co/2019/02/01/tesla-patent-battery-cell/

 

Geez. I should do a side gig as a Psychic Reader, crystal ball, candles, shingle and everything.

 

S/X are most profitable. It finally looks like supercapacitors will be used for S/X refresh, instead of the 2170.

Supercapacitors soon have energy density of 300Wh/kg and with a 500 kg pack that would mean something in the range of 150kWh.

Damn. Where can I place my pre-order?

 

its batteries not supercapacitors... You should know that Estonian company produces better supercapacitors than Maxwell

 

Even if they do produce some revolutionary battery tech, it might not make it's way to S/X.

 

300 Wh/kg, you are talking dry electrode batteries not capacitors I presume? Takes many years to reach cost effective production, heck it took 30 years for li-ion. So maybe in a couple of generations of S/X we will see this...

 

Not likely... Tesla acquires ultracapacitor and battery manufacturer for over $200 million

Tesla CEO Elon Musk first moved to California in the 90s in order to do a PhD on ultracapacitors, but he quickly stopped to start an internet company. The technology has never been adopted by electric vehicle manufacturers who favored Li-ion batteries.

But Tesla’s acquisition of Maxwell might have little to do with ultracapacitors. The automaker might be more interested with Maxwell’s dry electrode technology that they have been hyping recently. Maxwell claims that its electrode enables an energy density of over 300 Wh/kg in current demonstration cells and they see a path to over 500 Wh/kg.

This would represent a significant improvement over current battery cells used by Tesla and enable longer range or lighter weight, but that’s not even the most attractive benefit of Maxwell’s dry electrode. They claim that it should simplify the manufacturing process and result in a “10 to 20% cost reduction versus state-of-the-art wet electrodes” while “extending battery Life up to a factor of 2.”

 

I hate this thread...every time it pops up I have hope of news.

But I get crushed every time I click on it.

 

I love that this thread started more than a year and a half ago. What do we define as "imminent" these days?

 

I am fairly confident that the acquisition of Maxwell is about making very slightly better batteries cheaper to produce. In other words, lowering the cost and factory footprint needed to manufacture the battery. Acquiring Maxwell was not about a new battery or dramatic leap in battery technology. If I am right, then the Maxwell acquisition has nothing to do with S/X and everything to do with 3 and Y.

 

For something like the battery pack in a car, you want to look at Wh/cL, not Wh/Kg. Super or ultacapacitors are significantly lighter than li-ion batteries, so 1 Kg of supercapacitor would take up significantly more space than the same weight of li-ion cells. The 2170 in the Model 3 is 207 Wh/Kg, but is around 700 Wh/L. The energy density of the best supercapacitors is probably significantly less. Current energy densities in commercially available supercapacitors is about 1/10 that of Li-ion.

Tesla might be looking at replacing the 12V battery with a supercapacitor, or incorporating a peaking power aid on top of the standard battery pack. They could probably do regen better with the energy going into a supercapacitor instead of the battery pack. It would also help with acceleration from stops.

Tesla may also just be buying out Maxwell to take advantage of their existing infrastructure and aren't very interested in Maxwell's designs.

 

First I thought it was a joke but saw that several people mentioned it, but I don't get it. What do you all mean by this?

 

Click the links in the post quoted above yours.