Model S range and interior update imminent?

[wdolson]

Your math is off by a factor of 10. 10% of base price of $70,000 = $7000 Still as you say it won't be anywhere near that, because there's so much other stuff going on with these cars. Probably closer to the $100 range, maybe? Don't know aluminum stock prices well enough to say. It should fair better than the Model 3 which uses a lot more of the higher tariff steel, which seems likely to come in around $200 and change. Nearing %1 on the base M3 is nothing to dismiss, as that's already fighting for any sort of margin to start with.

This is assuming Tesla is buying their aluminum from overseas, which they aren't. They buy most of their aluminum, if not all, from Sapa in Portland, OR. I see they have been bought out in the last year by Hydro Extrusions. In any case, Sapa advertises that at least 50% of their aluminum provided to customers is aluminum they recycled themselves. With the tariff there will be even more pressure to recycle domestically and those companies that already do it will be in a position to scale up their existing operations.

My massage therapist's husband is an engineer at Sapa. I believe she said Tesla is one of their biggest customers. And Sapa may be getting some supplies from overseas.

I don't know where Tesla is sourcing the steel for the Model 3 (and the steel that goes into the S/X, there is some), but one of the cost savings aims for the Model 3 was to keep supply lines from raw materials to final production as short as possible. I wouldn't be surprised if they are sourcing steel from a steel recycler in the west somewhere.

 

[RobStark]

The phase out of the tax credit will likely affect the high end of Tesla's market a lot more than the Model 3 and Y. The 3 and Y are aimed at the people who don't earn enough to owe $7500 in federal taxes. Some 3/Y buyers will, but the bulk won't.

Average household income of BMW 3 Series owners is $165k. More than enough to take full advantage of the credit.

Anyone qualified to buy a base Model 3 can lease and get a better deal with the $7500 credit included by the leasing company.

 

[ℬête Noire]

People need to check the title of this thread.

An update will almost certainly bring a revisiting of pricing, so a nominally $500 increase in materials costs is sadly relevant. Agreed the price increases from inflation, trades wars, and the wisdom (or lack of wisdom) of it all is probably outside the scope of this thread, not really linked to the refresh.

Open relevant questions: Whether or not they're seeing battery cost reductions on S/X packs to compensate for that? Or if Tesla was already counting on battery costs dropping to bring overall books in better order, or lower the price? Remember they're in the middle of building factories, and factories aren't made out of marshmallows & wood. *shrug*

 

[efusco]

Multiple posts about the tariff moved to new off topic thread. Focus people, stick to the topic and no politics.
Off Topic Tariff discussion

 

[widodh]

On Twitter somebody suggested/guessed that a good moment for the refresh would be when the current referral program ends, which is end of April.

Would that make sense?

 

[ℬête Noire]

This is assuming Tesla is buying their aluminum from overseas, which they aren't.

No, it doesn't assume that. The local prices increase to meet it, it'll ripple through the entire chain. It's the nature of tariffs, especially in commodity like markets. A small manufacturing company owner on this board already had his supplier's steel prices jump 25%, even before the tariff has gone into effect.

It seems likely to be a portion of whatever price adjustments Tesla decides to make along side a 'refresh'.

EDIT: It is interesting that Tesla is using at least partially recycled materials, though.

 

[wdolson]

No, it doesn't assume that. The local prices increase to meet it, it'll ripple through the entire chain. It's the nature of tariffs, especially in commodity like markets. A small manufacturing company owner on this board already had his supplier's steel prices jump 25%, even before the tariff has gone into effect.

It seems likely to be a portion of whatever price adjustments Tesla decides to make along side a 'refresh'.

EDIT: It is interesting that Tesla is using at least partially recycled materials, though.

I'll refrain from more political discussion in this thread. Though using recycled metal in cars is fairly common. A fairly decent percentage of consumer aluminum is recycled (not all of course, but it is one of the easier things to recycle and was one of the first things to be recycled after glass).

Steel from cars has been recycled for a long time too. Once there was quite a big iron mining industry around the Great Lakes, and the core of the steel industry was not far from the lakes either. The car industry ended up in Detroit because of the close proximity to steel supply. So many cars are recycled now, the mines have mostly shut down.

Other factors contribute to the US mines being shut down. Older American iron mines are more played out than in some other countries. Australian iron production has dropped as China's demand has dropped and China has upped their own domestic production, but Australia was the world's biggest producer of iron ore for most of the last decade or two. Most of Australia's easy to mine iron ore is in the western part of the country which is both lightly populated and a relatively short haul to China.

In any case getting back to the possible refresh. I do think Tesla probably planned it for sometime this year, but they have pushed it back because of the problems with the Model 3 production. However they did the first Model S refresh when the Model X was still having problems, but that was mostly cosmetic.

To keep the Model S relevant, Tesla needs to remove all negatives comparing the Model 3 to the Model S. Among the complaints about the S new Model 3 owners have is the Model 3 has a generally better interior. Among other drawbacks to the S is the poor head room in the back seat, though that would involve a somewhat major structural overhaul. The last is range. The Model S has to be able to boast much longer range than the 3 as well as better performance. It has the 3 beat in performance, but it's kind of an embarrassment the RWD 3 has a longer range than the S100D and they advertise a shorter range for the RWD 3.

That may be a contributing factor why the initial production of the 3 is not AWD. The AWD version would probably have another 10-15% more range than the S100D.

 

[number12]

I'll refrain from more political discussion in this thread. Though using recycled metal in cars is fairly common. A fairly decent percentage of consumer aluminum is recycled (not all of course, but it is one of the easier things to recycle and was one of the first things to be recycled after glass).

Steel from cars has been recycled for a long time too. Once there was quite a big iron mining industry around the Great Lakes, and the core of the steel industry was not far from the lakes either. The car industry ended up in Detroit because of the close proximity to steel supply. So many cars are recycled now, the mines have mostly shut down.

Other factors contribute to the US mines being shut down. Older American iron mines are more played out than in some other countries. Australian iron production has dropped as China's demand has dropped and China has upped their own domestic production, but Australia was the world's biggest producer of iron ore for most of the last decade or two. Most of Australia's easy to mine iron ore is in the western part of the country which is both lightly populated and a relatively short haul to China.

In any case getting back to the possible refresh. I do think Tesla probably planned it for sometime this year, but they have pushed it back because of the problems with the Model 3 production. However they did the first Model S refresh when the Model X was still having problems, but that was mostly cosmetic.

To keep the Model S relevant, Tesla needs to remove all negatives comparing the Model 3 to the Model S. Among the complaints about the S new Model 3 owners have is the Model 3 has a generally better interior. Among other drawbacks to the S is the poor head room in the back seat, though that would involve a somewhat major structural overhaul. The last is range. The Model S has to be able to boast much longer range than the 3 as well as better performance. It has the 3 beat in performance, but it's kind of an embarrassment the RWD 3 has a longer range than the S100D and they advertise a shorter range for the RWD 3.

That may be a contributing factor why the initial production of the 3 is not AWD. The AWD version would probably have another 10-15% more range than the S100D.

Great post

 

[ℬête Noire]

I'll refrain from more political discussion in this thread.

Basic economic fact, disconnected from any discussion policy or politician, is now 'politics'? *sigh*

Steel from cars has been recycled for a long time too.

Oh I know, lived through early Bad Days back when some really sloppy recycled steel formulations appeared to feed back into the automobile industry's steel supply. Note, I know recycling industry has advanced to the point where it consistently produces output of commodity aluminum, indistinguishable from first smelt.

I just thought it was an interesting tidbit on Tesla's purchasing, I was thanking you for sharing.

That may be a contributing factor why the initial production of the 3 is not AWD. The AWD version would probably have another 10-15% more range than the S100D.

It seems unlikely that the range detail was the motivation like that given that:
1) The gain going to AWD is more likely below 10% than above, though I guess we'll see.
2) Tesla intends to start shipping AWD within a few months.
3) The large battery Model 3 already has a much longer range in practice. At least for 18" with aero wheels.
4) There's a far more ready reason for not building the D first, keeping manufacturing simpler and then adding variables only when the basics were down.

It appears that Tesla sandbagged on the Model 3's nominal range numbers, relative to how they've reported S/X numbers. It might have been to not show up the Model S but a component of making it easier to understand for the new type of customer they are growing into, the general public. *shrug*

Do they intend to try get an S refresh out really soon to keep some differentiation when AWDness in general, the handling and the performance bump and such, comes to the Model 3 this summer-ish? Maybe? *shrug*

 

[verygreen]

3) The large battery Model 3 already has a much longer range in practice. At least for 18" with aero wheels.

Weird that I hear from some existing owners that they get much worse performance. circa 315 wh/mi. Not that I check much info about model 3, but how many datapoints are there about model 3 real world usage I wonder.

 

[wdolson]

Basic economic fact, disconnected from any discussion policy or politician, is now 'politics'? *sigh*

There were complaints about the topic drift, whatever we want to call it. I was acknowledging my bad there.

Oh I know, lived through early Bad Days back when some really sloppy recycled steel formulations appeared to feed back into the automobile industry's steel supply. Note, I know recycling industry has advanced to the point where it consistently produces output of commodity aluminum, indistinguishable from first smelt.

I just thought it was an interesting tidbit on Tesla's purchasing, I was thanking you for sharing.

Your welcome. Sorry I get verbal diarrhea of the fingers.

It seems unlikely that the range detail was the motivation like that given that:
1) The gain going to AWD is more likely below 10% than above, though I guess we'll see.
2) Tesla intends to start shipping AWD within a few months.
3) The large battery Model 3 already has a much longer range in practice. At least for 18" with aero wheels.
4) There's a far more ready reason for not building the D first, keeping manufacturing simpler and then adding variables only when the basics were down.

It appears that Tesla sandbagged on the Model 3's nominal range numbers, relative to how they've reported S/X numbers. It might have been to not show up the Model S but a component of making it easier to understand for the new type of customer they are growing into, the general public. *shrug*

Do they intend to try get an S refresh out really soon to keep some differentiation when AWDness in general, the handling and the performance bump and such, comes to the Model 3 this summer-ish? Maybe? *shrug*

They are talking about the M3 AWD in a few months, but we also don't know if that's going to slip too. Tests have shown the S100D tops out at about 335 miles as Tesla advertises, in real world conditions, if you're careful. I can get the rated miles on my S90D driving carefully in good weather. I sometimes get it on mild winter days too. Just be careful with the heat. I believe one of the car magazines and the EPA found driving the Model 3 in their normal test conditions, it gets around 340 miles. The Model S went up about 10% when it got the dual motors. I assume the M3 will improve close to the same.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned here (or I missed it) is the possibility of aero wheels for the Model S. I would probably buy them if they were available aftermarket.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Weird that I hear from some existing owners that they get much worse performance. circa 315 wh/mi. Not that I check much info about model 3, but how many datapoints are there about model 3 real world usage I wonder.

You can look through the Model 3 forum but I've seen no suggestions there of something that would hint at that. Maybe in very cold conditions? But I'd think being an existing owner they should understand that, so not sure? Or driving very hard, something to do with having Model S-like exceptions in some way?? I've gotten he impression that staying on, or very near expected total range is pretty easy.

Here's an anecdotal mountain climb/decent trip, they came in at about 227Wh/mi over about 106mi, that extrapolates to nearly 340mi on a full charge (caveat applies of larger margin of error on relatively small measurement). Rough Estimate of Energy Used to Climb + Implications for M3 Efficiency Also another climb trip at 70+mph that was estimably at roughly 255Wh/mi, though extrapolating their Model S experience number combined with a P100 battery pack may have edged it out on that. Again, need more data to really confirm which side it'd fall on, above or below.

I'm pretty sure I saw a decent collection of semi-rigorous data pointing that way, too, but don't have it handy and a quick search is coming up empty for me. Maybe it'll come to me later.

It is known that Tesla requested a much more pessimistic adjustment factor from the EPA's measurements for the Model 3 than with prior vehicles. So having it's range just below the P100D is an exercise in fiction. Plus with the lower drag the Model 3 does better as you bump your speeds up from that of the standardized testing speeds.

EDIT: All in all at best for the P100 it's sharing the top practical range with the Model 3 LR w/Aero wheels.

 

[dss33]

There were complaints about the topic drift, whatever we want to call it. I was acknowledging my bad there.



Your welcome. Sorry I get verbal diarrhea of the fingers.



They are talking about the M3 AWD in a few months, but we also don't know if that's going to slip too. Tests have shown the S100D tops out at about 335 miles as Tesla advertises, in real world conditions, if you're careful. I can get the rated miles on my S90D driving carefully in good weather. I sometimes get it on mild winter days too. Just be careful with the heat. I believe one of the car magazines and the EPA found driving the Model 3 in their normal test conditions, it gets around 340 miles. The Model S went up about 10% when it got the dual motors. I assume the M3 will improve close to the same.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned here (or I missed it) is the possibility of aero wheels for the Model S. I would probably buy them if they were available aftermarket.

You missed out on the original OEM Model S aero wheels!

 

[ℬête Noire]

You missed out on the original OEM Model S aero wheels!

I've seen used sets on eBay for sale, so they are out there. I never looked at the price or quality though.

 

[widodh]

Can we stay ontopic here? That would be nice

 

[iffatall]

Yes. I have no plans of replacing my MS, or buying a new one in the near future. Yet, I can't wait for an interior refresh and a range upgrade to be announced/released. I want to see 3-to-S distinguishing features bigger than space and an extra screen for no bigger price difference than current.

[Trying to steer to topic]

 

[svp6]

The phase out of the tax credit will likely affect the high end of Tesla's market a lot more than the Model 3 and Y. The 3 and Y are aimed at the people who don't earn enough to owe $7500 in federal taxes..

Not sure about that. Most of the people I know and have a model S are leasing it. I know in theory the 7500 reduces the residual - but the money factor was so bad that the lease was very high - never saw a cent of that 7500k.

I agree that the model 3 will hit model S sales for various reason - but this is the one that was true for me: I get bored by cars quickly. Getting another

virtually identical ​

model S was not appealing to me, so I got the 3. The interior materials are actually better quality than the model S I had (bar the alcantara which was a very nice touch ). The fit and finish are also very good. So unless something changes drastically in the interior design for model S, I do not see one in our future.

 

[Ketchups]

Range and Interior update IMMINENT!!!

 

[sandpiper]

This is assuming Tesla is buying their aluminum from overseas, which they aren't. They buy most of their aluminum, if not all, from Sapa in Portland, OR. I see they have been bought out in the last year by Hydro Extrusions. In any case, Sapa advertises that at least 50% of their aluminum provided to customers is aluminum they recycled themselves. With the tariff there will be even more pressure to recycle domestically and those companies that already do it will be in a position to scale up their existing operations.

My massage therapist's husband is an engineer at Sapa. I believe she said Tesla is one of their biggest customers. And Sapa may be getting some supplies from overseas.

I don't know where Tesla is sourcing the steel for the Model 3 (and the steel that goes into the S/X, there is some), but one of the cost savings aims for the Model 3 was to keep supply lines from raw materials to final production as short as possible. I wouldn't be surprised if they are sourcing steel from a steel recycler in the west somewhere.

Aluminum is a liquid commodity. If the price of foreign aluminum goes up, local companies will raise their prices to suit. They'd be stupid not to.

 

[sandpiper]

Range and Interior update IMMINENT!!!

Uhh... okay. Just a little trolling around today?