Model S range and interior update imminent?

[AZ Desert Driver]

I really hope this lowers the pricing for used & CPO Teslas. Will definitely see is pricing gets even lower on some of the 2016 refreshed MS.

I really hope that the price INCREASES. As an owner of a 2016 refresh 60/75....I want my resale value to Increase, not crater. I would be interested in replacing my entire pack with a larger one - for no practical reason other than to have the latest and greatest. I travel just fine with my "small" pack. I would trade in my sled for one with more cameras and better suited to full auto drive. But until auto is real, I think I'll just suffer driving my delightful refresh.

 

[PhilDavid]

I really hope that the price INCREASES. As an owner of a 2016 refresh 60/75....I want my resale value to Increase, not crater. I would be interested in replacing my entire pack with a larger one - for no practical reason other than to have the latest and greatest. I travel just fine with my "small" pack. I would trade in my sled for one with more cameras and better suited to full auto drive. But until auto is real, I think I'll just suffer driving my delightful refresh.

If you want a Tesla asset to appreciate yo should have bought Tesla stock and not the Tesla car.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

If you want a Tesla asset to appreciate yo should have bought Tesla stock and not the Tesla car.

Agree that cars are a depreciating asset - almost always. I did buy TSLA stock - several tranches. Now, with that detail out of the way - what is my car worth? If I calculate depreciation, do I take MSRP and subtract current trade in = depreciation. Or do I subtract $7,500 tax, add $1,500 charger costs, add 60/75 battery upgrade? Does my pano roof, AP1 and color choices change the trade-in?

 

[PhilDavid]

Agree that cars are a depreciating asset - almost always. I did buy TSLA stock - several tranches. Now, with that detail out of the way - what is my car worth? If I calculate depreciation, do I take MSRP and subtract current trade in = depreciation. Or do I subtract $7,500 tax, add $1,500 charger costs, add 60/75 battery upgrade? Does my pano roof, AP1 and color choices change the trade-in?

IMHO used car prices are not calculated by a set equation and based more on what the market is willing to pay. I would start at looking at sold listings on eBay as that shows how much people are actually to pay.

The availability of the Model 3 with Tesla's latest technology has had an impact on used Model S prices.

Tesla Model S | eBay

Also for a particular model look at the price floor of the CPO inventory as that shows what Tesla has found the market to pay. They generally figure out the price floor for a certain model and make downward price adjustments reaching down to that level.

The CPO cars have a 2 or 4 year warranty worth between $2K and 4.7K so a private party car might need to make that adjustment off of a comparable CPO price based on whether the car is sold with the ESA warranty.

You can see the CPO inventory here:

EV-CPO.com - Tesla New, Used, and CPO Inventory Listings

 

[mtndrew1]

Has anyone noticed that the chassis photo on the Tesla website has a different taillight/charge port config?

Looks like a larger port area, perhaps to accommodate CCS & GB/T. Is this new?

 

[digistyl3]

Has anyone noticed that the chassis photo on the Tesla website has a different taillight/charge port config?

Looks like a larger port area, perhaps to accommodate CCS & GB/T. Is this new?

View attachment 368907

Is that also a new wheel?

EDIT: Never mind, I think it's just the Twin Turbine 21" wheel.

 

[electronblue]

Has anyone noticed that the chassis photo on the Tesla website has a different taillight/charge port config?

Looks like a larger port area, perhaps to accommodate CCS & GB/T. Is this new?

View attachment 368907

That Model S image still shows the old rear lights but there certainly is a large hole there. The Model X chassis image on Tesla.com shows similar opening so whether old or new clearly there is room at last for a larger charge port — or two?

There was this concept in the rumor summary thread:

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Has anyone noticed that the chassis photo on the Tesla website has a different taillight/charge port config?

Looks like a larger port area, perhaps to accommodate CCS & GB/T. Is this new?

View attachment 368907

That spoiler looks much bigger on the rear -- wonder what revisions they have in mind on the rear.

 

[skitown]

That spoiler looks much bigger on the rear -- wonder what revisions they have in mind on the rear.

When looking at the image on the site proper, the spoiler/rear doesn’t seem different to me than my current S. YMMV.

Model S | Tesla

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

That spoiler looks much bigger on the rear -- wonder what revisions they have in mind on the rear.

spoiler alert - I dont want my rear to get any bigger. no more revisions

 

[sillydriver]

Going back to the title of this thread, I really thought a Model S range and interior update was imminent after the announcement of the discontinuation of the 75D, but after reading Elon's preannouncement letter the other day I've changed my mind. I assume the layoffs are for programs like updating the S and X, while everything is now focused on reducing the cost of the 3, and probably on getting the Y out the door to further increase volume and thus better cover the company's overhead.

 

[evster]

Going back to the title of this thread, I really thought a Model S range and interior update was imminent after the announcement of the discontinuation of the 75D, but after reading Elon's preannouncement letter the other day I've changed my mind. I assume the layoffs are for programs like updating the S and X, while everything is now focused on reducing the cost of the 3, and probably on getting the Y out the door to further increase volume and thus better cover the company's overhead.

It could also be the opposite. Tesla need to sell products with higher margins to move towards profitability. They for sure have better margins on the more expensive S/X, but right now they are becoming a bit dated and end of cycle so demand decreases. All the people with enough money and lackluster for a S/X are waiting for a new model. If you're in a S or X today with decent spec there is no real reason to trade it up for a new one right now. Demand for S specifically has already probably started to plummet.

Can Tesla however pull of an update with an interior refresh and perhaps some exterior changes as well (new rear for Model S and new rear lights), CCS port for Europe (and NA) and suport for Supercharger V3 then we will see movement and A LOT of people (myself included) will put down an instant order for a new S or X. And to be honest, I will not be that price sensitive so Tesla can probably set a rather high sticker price and sell performance variants and Long Range new updated S with good margins. This will then contribute to the overall profitability and quicker make it possible to start building the Standard Range Model 3.

Everything indicates that there is something happening in a few months concerning updates to S/X. Question is more if it is coming in March or if we have to wait until summer to get more details.

 

[GoEagles997]

It could also be the opposite. Tesla need to sell products with higher margins to move towards profitability. They for sure have better margins on the more expensive S/X, but right now they are becoming a bit dated and end of cycle so demand decreases. All the people with enough money and lackluster for a S/X are waiting for a new model. If you're in a S or X today with decent spec there is no real reason to trade it up for a new one right now. Demand for S specifically has already probably started to plummet.

Can Tesla however pull of an update with an interior refresh and perhaps some exterior changes as well (new rear for Model S and new rear lights), CCS port for Europe (and NA) and suport for Supercharger V3 then we will see movement and A LOT of people (myself included) will put down an instant order for a new S or X. And to be honest, I will not be that price sensitive so Tesla can probably set a rather high sticker price and sell performance variants and Long Range new updated S with good margins. This will then contribute to the overall profitability and quicker make it possible to start building the Standard Range Model 3.

Everything indicates that there is something happening in a few months concerning updates to S/X. Question is more if it is coming in March or if we have to wait until summer to get more details.

I hope you are right about the interior refresh, but normally for cars they are every 4-5 years or so, the lash refresh was in April 2016 so next expecting that, but was expecting 120kWh batteries after 75D was discountied.

Really wanted some used 100Ds out here, I highly suspect you’ll be able to get a used 100D for less than $70K by the end of the year. Anxiously awaiting that.

 

[FlatSix911]

I hope you are right about the interior refresh, but normally for cars they are every 4-5 years or so, the lash refresh was in April 2016 so next expecting that, but was expecting 120kWh batteries after 75D was discountied.

Really wanted some used 100Ds out here, I highly suspect you’ll be able to get a used 100D for less than $70K by the end of the year. Anxiously awaiting that.

I am also waiting for the Model S refresh and believe most luxury auto makers use a 3 year mid-cycle to refresh their product line and a 6 year cycle for a complete redesign... Porsche comes to mind in this regard. So my best guess is April - June 2019 for the next mid-cycle facelift.

Autotrader - page unavailable

In general, new cars are fully redesigned every four to six years. Occasionally, the model cycle for a specific car or truck will last more than six years. In between redesigns, every three years or so, cars are given a face-lift to help keep them looking fresh. This is what's called the automotive "model cycle," and it exists, without fail, for virtually every single car company.

 

[emmz0r]

It could also be the opposite. Tesla need to sell products with higher margins to move towards profitability. They for sure have better margins on the more expensive S/X, but right now they are becoming a bit dated and end of cycle so demand decreases.

What are the margins on S/X AFTER deducting the loss on repeated service center visits, with battery replacement, DU replacement, the rattle suspension problem, door alignments and so on?

 

[timx]

As 75D's make up a substantial portion of S/X sales, I can't imagine Tesla would decrease production by such a large amount. The only thing that makes sense is if they are able to sell more in specific markets for Q1 -- China comes to mind, as many may be jumping to purchase before end of Q1 before tariffs may go back up again.

Even then, not sure China demand would be enough -- something has to give. Since we're speculating (well over a year now), I am going to predict that there will be an announcement on February 1, 2019 regarding new battery configurations for S and X. This would be after the cancellation window for those that ordered 75's, after the expiration of the referral program, within enough time to still deliver significant new orders in Q1, and before the ~$900M convertible note is due, giving the stock a chance to appreciate upwards.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Lets say- you were just rebuffed by GM as being against unions. Lets say you have a bunch of ex-union employees in your Fremont plant that have been agitated toward action because of GM. You know you cant weed out "just them" so you flush a whole bunch of folks, but make sure you get the trouble makers in the process.

Not saying this happened - but could there be another - less noble- reason for the purge?

 

[sandpiper]

Lets say- you were just rebuffed by GM as being against unions. Lets say you have a bunch of ex-union employees in your Fremont plant that have been agitated toward action because of GM. You know you cant weed out "just them" so you flush a whole bunch of folks, but make sure you get the trouble makers in the process.

Not saying this happened - but could there be another - less noble- reason for the purge?

I don't understand what's not noble about removing the weaker performers. They hired a LOT of people in the last year. Now that things are stabilized they need to trim. And of course they're going to get rid of problem employees in the batch.

 

[FlatSix911]

Lets say- you were just rebuffed by GM as being against unions. Lets say you have a bunch of ex-union employees in your Fremont plant that have been agitated toward action because of GM. You know you cant weed out "just them" so you flush a whole bunch of folks, but make sure you get the trouble makers in the process.

Not saying this happened - but could there be another - less noble- reason for the purge?

Tesla uses a merit system based on employee performance... union affiliation does not mater.

 

[PhilDavid]

As 75D's make up a substantial portion of S/X sales, I can't imagine Tesla would decrease production by such a large amount. The only thing that makes sense is if they are able to sell more in specific markets for Q1 -- China comes to mind, as many may be jumping to purchase before end of Q1 before tariffs may go back up again.

Even then, not sure China demand would be enough -- something has to give. Since we're speculating (well over a year now), I am going to predict that there will be an announcement on February 1, 2019 regarding new battery configurations for S and X. This would be after the cancellation window for those that ordered 75's, after the expiration of the referral program, within enough time to still deliver significant new orders in Q1, and before the ~$900M convertible note is due, giving the stock a chance to appreciate upwards.

I hope things happen as you predict. I feel like Model S sales had plateaued and while doing very well, had room for growth. A bunch of potential customers are waiting for the Taycan and other competing EVs coming out in the next couple of years. Heck there are probably Tesla customers waiting waiting for an update before replacing their Model S.

A meaningful update should provide a nice bump in sales for the Model S along with the profit that goes along with it.