Poor people who just got theirs... I thought Elon said it wasn't sustainable? All this flip flopping...
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Model S range and interior update imminent?
- Thread starter Thorbjorn
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Poor people who just got theirs... I thought Elon said it wasn't sustainable? All this flip flopping...
Not sustainable for mass production (i.e. Model 3), but on the higher margin S/X, and at less than 100,000 per year, sustainable (and no commercial use).
Or just "fixing" the S/X problem that Elon said he'd get to the bottom of on the Earnings call.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
To make people buy before it went away.
Now they’re making people buy because it came back.
They’ll repeat in a few months.
Doesn't see like a good strategy because a lot of people are up in arms about this on misc forums
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Definitely short sighted. Unfortunately I just don’t think Tesla has the luxury of long term thinking right now.
It's a vicious cycle. Those who do not think long term will forever be in crisis mode.
This isn’t a fix by any means. It’s a temporary demand lever, that will surely go away next quarter.
I saw that on the order screen today when checking price, placed the order immediately in case it was a software bug, screenshotted several pages just in case.
The Model S and X without free supercharging just aren't worth the premium compared to the Model 3 and coming Y. They should distinguish the high power superchargers from the urban ones and only allow free supercharging on the high power ones on the road, or geo fence free supercharging to only be 50+ miles from home or something like that.
If they did that, it probably would be sustainable as a perk on the S/X at least until they can bring the price down. There are some people who roadtrip a lot, but most people drive most of their miles around town and rarely have a real need to supercharge. The average owner would likely end up using less than $200 of supercharging a year, some would use virtually none while others would use a lot. But I would guess the fleet average is probably somewhere between $100 and $200. If people kept the car 5 years and the free supercharging was lost when they sold it, Tesla would be out about $1000 in free supercharging.
They could also limit it by just offering 3 years of free supercharging instead of lifetime.
If they can make changes to the S/X to bring the price down to about a $10K premium over the Model 3, they can probably sustain sales of these cars without having to resort to extra incentives, but until they do, sales of these cars is going to languish at the higher prices they need to charge for the cars. The S/X are going to see very limited sales outside North America anyway because they are massive cars for most world markets. The Model 3/Y are large cars for Europe and Asia.
But the S/X are too expensive to sell well in any market with the Model 3/Y available which are at least 80% of the car at a much cheaper price. If they bling up the S/X like European luxury cars, they will appeal to the European luxury car buyers, but there aren't many of those buying luxury cars the size of the S/X. The Model S has dominated that segment for the last 5 years because there just aren't that many large luxury cars sold. The S/X could compete quite well with Lincoln and Cadillac if they were priced about the same.
If Tesla can't get the price down and sales continue to languish, it would be in their best interests to drop the S/X from the lineup for a few years until a completely new 2nd generation car can be brought out.
If they did that, it probably would be sustainable as a perk on the S/X at least until they can bring the price down. There are some people who roadtrip a lot, but most people drive most of their miles around town and rarely have a real need to supercharge. The average owner would likely end up using less than $200 of supercharging a year, some would use virtually none while others would use a lot. But I would guess the fleet average is probably somewhere between $100 and $200. If people kept the car 5 years and the free supercharging was lost when they sold it, Tesla would be out about $1000 in free supercharging.
They could also limit it by just offering 3 years of free supercharging instead of lifetime.
If they can make changes to the S/X to bring the price down to about a $10K premium over the Model 3, they can probably sustain sales of these cars without having to resort to extra incentives, but until they do, sales of these cars is going to languish at the higher prices they need to charge for the cars. The S/X are going to see very limited sales outside North America anyway because they are massive cars for most world markets. The Model 3/Y are large cars for Europe and Asia.
But the S/X are too expensive to sell well in any market with the Model 3/Y available which are at least 80% of the car at a much cheaper price. If they bling up the S/X like European luxury cars, they will appeal to the European luxury car buyers, but there aren't many of those buying luxury cars the size of the S/X. The Model S has dominated that segment for the last 5 years because there just aren't that many large luxury cars sold. The S/X could compete quite well with Lincoln and Cadillac if they were priced about the same.
If Tesla can't get the price down and sales continue to languish, it would be in their best interests to drop the S/X from the lineup for a few years until a completely new 2nd generation car can be brought out.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
I agree with the premise to provide FUSC for the Model S and X as a key market differentiator.
Current S/X sales have only been 8-10K for the first half of 2019 vs. 80K for the Model 3.
Final Update: Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard: July 2019
Current S/X sales have only been 8-10K for the first half of 2019 vs. 80K for the Model 3.
Final Update: Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard: July 2019
Just to put those Model S sales numbers in proper perspective, in that same 6 month period there were only 7,049 MB S class sold, 5,435 7-series, 4,216 Panamera's, 3,431 Audi A7's, and 3,093 Lexus LS's.
US Vehicle Sales Figures By Model
US Vehicle Sales Figures By Model
AMPd
Well-Known Member
Totally agree, free supercharging will be a significant differentiator.I agree with the premise to provide FUSC for the Model S and X as a key market differentiator.
Current S/X sales have only been 8-10K for the first half of 2019 vs. 80K for the Model 3.
Final Update: Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard: July 2019
View attachment 437578
Last year total Model S sales were 25,745, through July they sold 12,020 in the US. This year through July they have sold 8200. Sales in Europe have virtually dried up with the Model 3 now available there.
When compared to other large luxury sedans it's still one of the top sellers, but it's a big fish in a small pond. @RubberToe has not posted updated numbers in a year, but the Model S was dominating the segment in the US with only the Mercedes S Class even being close.
Model S sales versus other large luxury vehicles
You're comparing today to a totally different situation, when the model S was not only grabbing large luxury sedan buyers, but people who only wanted a small sedan or less expensive car but had no other choice if they wanted an EV. If you look at the multi-year trend of large luxury sedan sales I've attached (source: goodcarbadcar.net), the model S created an unmistakable bulge in total segment sales when it was introduced, and now it's back down. It was all the Prius / Accord / 3 series owners moving up into the segment to buy the only good EV on the market. Now all those folks have the Model 3, and Model S sales are back to where they "should" be (but still #1).
Refresh it all you want, add FUSC, etc., but those sales are never coming back, unless Tesla kills the Model 3. There's just not that many people willing to spend a premium for a car, or wanting such a large sedan. For those who do, Model S still dominates.
And no matter what Musk may have stated in public (though I don't recall him ever stating this), I can't believe he or anyone on his team were dumb enough to think Model S sales could have been sustained after the Model 3 came out. Not with the data they have showing what cars people had been trading in for the Model S. Same for Model 3 sales (and Model X) when the Y comes out BTW - there will be a significant drop as people won't have to cross-shop to a different category to get a decent EV. Anything else is just wishful thinking.
Attachments
Also notice in that chart above, the total US market for large luxury sedans has been decreasing for the past few years. So investing in the Model S is just chasing after share of a shrinking pie. Seems dumb to me, when they could be throwing more resources in markets that are growing instead (CUV's), or huge ones where they don't have an entrant yet (pickups).
Yeah, I stopped because GM didn't want to provide monthly updated. Several others followed suit, Tesla never did monthly. Not sure why the legacy automakers went that route, maybe to hide bad news, or obfuscate things.
I don't like to get into the numbers debate, but I occasionally find the banter entertaining. For example: The Model 3 U.S. deliveries in July exceeded all other plug in vehicles combined. The numbers story ends there, dead stop.
Then there are threads in TMC where people are claiming that ~200 Jaguar I-pace sales per month going forward are game changing
. They are definitely game changing, just not in the way Jaguar enthusiasts think.Lots of word clouds, lots of threads, lots of announcements, but only one company is crushing it. Tesla.
I even saw a story the other day that Tesla might be the only automakers that DOESN'T survive the transition to EV. Authors have an advanced degree in cognitive dissonance...
Tesla could be the only automaker that doesn't survive the Great Auto Disruption
These guys would have better luck working on political campaigns, where spewing alternate facts is the highlight on ones resume
RT
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