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Model S to hold over until M3?

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by TravelSD80, Mar 30, 2016.

  1. TravelSD80

    TravelSD80 Member

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    So I previously never thought about buying a Model S, as I really don't want to spend $70K+ on a car. While I could afford it, I'm not in love that much with cars to justify it. What I really want is a loaded M3, which is the right size and better price point. I would foresee keeping the M3 8+ years. But I don't know if I'll squeak in under the wire for the tax credits, plus I'll be waiting 2+ years.

    I was thinking, why not buy a fairly bare bones S now, which also helps in my M3 waitlist status, and enjoy Tesla in the mean time? I'm a VERY low mileage driver, and located in San Diego. So I figure the resale value of a S would be fairly good.

    From a financial perspective, what do you guys think about getting a fairly low end P70 (likely with the auto pilot feature) and then privately sell it when my M3 comes in? Taking the tax credit into account, if I could likely only be out say $10K net then I'd do it in an instant. So ~$20K depreciation in 2 years? Or would a better equipped model have better resale value? I want to minimize depreciation loss.
     
  2. BEEZR

    BEEZR Member

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    #2 BEEZR, Mar 30, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2016
    I'm thinking along the same lines, but I think the depreciation hit will be greater than that. Say you configure the car to $75K, I'm thinking it's going to be worth $50K in 2 years. Maybe closer to $45K... But this is all just unfounded speculation... :) Noting that the residual calculation for a 3-year lease is currently going to take that car below $50K, and the residuals are usually overstated vs. market value.

    Looking at the design studio, what do you mean by "minimal configuration"? Something like 90% of cars have the pano roof ($1500), which you also need to use the roof rack, so that is a must I think. Will impact resale value. Autopilot ($2500), metallic paint ($1000)... Just that is $75K + tax & delivery.

    Oh, forgot the Next Gen (leather) seats... add $2500.
     
  3. TravelSD80

    TravelSD80 Member

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    Well by minimal I was thinking AP, metallic paint and I guess the pano if that is quite popular. I can live without leather. Rear wheel drive as well.
     
  4. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    What is a P70?

    Consider a 10k mile per year lease. Two year lease possibilities may occur if there is a push for Q2 sales. See what comes about tomorrow. You can buy the clunkiest oldest CPO and be considered an owner for your model 3 order. Check with your local sales office to see what they have.
     
  5. brooklynrab

    brooklynrab Member

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    Enjoy life now. Lease S70 at 10K miles a year, write off lease against your business. Knowing Tesla, it will be a long time (at this rate, probably 2 1/2-3 years) before you see the M3 in your garage, and while it looks beautiful, we hardly know a thing about it and its pricing options.
     
  6. MorrisonHiker

    MorrisonHiker Beta Tester

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  7. K_style

    K_style Member

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    Similar situation. I always liked Model S but didn't have good enough excuse for me to pull the trigger for $70k+.
    Model 3 seemed a perfect choice so I have placed pre-order for 2 Model 3s in the morning of 3/31 however after seeing the actual production model later than day, I changed my mind and ended up ordering a model S.

    Main concern was the front end look of Model 3 and also, I was very skeptical that I may not even get Fed tax credit by the time I get Model 3 due to existing owner's advantage + Model S, X production till Model 3 number will most likely go over 200,000.

    I canceled 1 of Model 3 pre-order and the one I didn't cancel got bumped to priority list since I am a Model S owner.
     
  8. zambono

    zambono Member

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    Save your $ and wait or get a much cheaper electric if you want to go electric now like an i3 or Kia Soul etc
     
  9. DougH

    DougH Active Member

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    I am pretty sure I am too tall and fat for a Model 3 so I am waiting until the S is refreshed. If it doesn't happen I will keeping enjoying nu car payments!
     
  10. TravelSD80

    TravelSD80 Member

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    I don't think a lease takeover is the best move for me. I looked at a few leases, and the takeover payments are $1K to $1.6K. For 2 years, that's 24K down the drain. I think buying a used MS and selling in two years would have less deprecation.
     
  11. BEEZR

    BEEZR Member

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    I'm thinking/hoping the same thing.
     
    • Like x 1
  12. TravelSD80

    TravelSD80 Member

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    So I did a little digging on used MS, and also called my local Tesla dealer. I priced a base 70 RWD with AP as the only option. Came to $72.5K before incentives. Knocking off $10K for incentives, that's $62.5K plus tax/title/etc.

    I've seen a number of 2013/2014 used MS (obviously without AP), going for $60K to $75K, with a few more features than what I priced. The delta post-tax incentive is not that much (much less than I expected). So I'm thinking in two years a 2016 model with AP will have better resale value than a 2013/4 model without AP and a lot more miles (albeit a few more options).

    I saw a 2016 MS for sale locally without AP activated but did have pano roof, dual motor, subzero package (which I don't need in SoCal) and 19" aftermarket rims and they wanted $75K. At that price I think it would make more sense to buy new.

    So far I haven't seen a 'cheap' used MS
     
  13. TravelSD80

    TravelSD80 Member

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    I did submit an order for a model S, prior to any refresh happening. I still need to do research on possible resale value, and want to know if there's anything to this refresh rumor. But I have 7 days to cancel so will see what happens.
     
  14. K_style

    K_style Member

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    Main reason I purchased a new MS instead of an used one.
     
  15. TravelSD80

    TravelSD80 Member

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    My biggest concern, is a possible flood of MS when the M3s hit the market, depressing the MS used prices. I'm also wondering if the M3s will have APv2 that the current crop of MS don't have.
     
  16. BEEZR

    BEEZR Member

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    That's 2-3 years from now and there could be many other changes that factor into the pricing of used MS. And if the M3 has a new version of AP you'd think the then new MS would have that, too...

    If a Tesla's rate of innovation is more like high-tech/computing technology than automotive technology, you might say that Moore's Law applies in some form. So every few years there are going to be significant shifts in battery life/range, technology (non-AP to AP to APvNext...), etc. Year to year there are incremental changes, but every 3-4 years there are major changes that make previous versions obsolete.
     
  17. boaterva

    boaterva New Member

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    One reason I'm definitely looking at leasing... And then getting a new one, leasing then again. The easy way to stay current in an industry that is really ever-changing.
     
    • Like x 1
  18. Galve2000

    Galve2000 Member

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    and there are some great i3 leases around.. just a thought.
     
  19. BEEZR

    BEEZR Member

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    I was thinking about the i3 also -- as a bridge from my current Volt, with expiring lease, until my Model 3 reservation is due -- but after seeing all the posts in the i3 Facebook group I am having second thoughts. Everyone seems to code their car -- have someone manipulate the coding to enable features that aren't enabled in the North American version. (And then when there's a firmware update they have to redo the coding.) There are lots of posts about charging failures and other bothersome issues... I have no firsthand experience with the car, just not enthused after reading about the quirks. YMMV.
     
  20. K_style

    K_style Member

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    Another thing to consider, Price increase for MS is any day now.. was told 10% increase?? not sure if it includes Model X too.
     

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