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Model S Tracking

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by TT_Lambo, Aug 23, 2013.

  1. TT_Lambo

    TT_Lambo Member

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2013
    Messages:
    14
    Location:
    Dallas
    Hello fellow Tesla Model S owners,

    I am doing some independent research trying to track production of Model S cars and I thought it would be a good idea to share my thoughts and hopefully get some feedback from the board. All in all, the more people we have contributing the more accurate out data can become. Fellow forum member, Craig, has been kind enough to provide us with some of the data (replicated below). In short, what I am trying to do is track how closely VIN numbers track to production schedules.

    For example, At the end of Q2'13 Tesla delivered roughly 12,753 Model S cars. If I trace a VIN dated 7/1/13 (the end of Q2) I get 16,398, a 3,645 difference. I am assuming this difference is related to reservations made as Elon stated the production floor isn't fully utilize (can't meet demand). Now, the latest VIN shared on the board was on 8/19/13 at 20,552. Give or take 3k reservation cars, that implies roughly 685 cars being produced per week (8/19/13 VIN - reservation cars vs. 12,753 cars delivered through Q2'13).

    This data is very interesting as it implies they are quickly improving the utilization of the production floor and on route to meet their excess demand. Their latest conference call note they were producing ~400 per week. I think it is safe to assume this number should increase significantly as the polish their production process.

    Thoughts?

    Reported Deliveries
    Q2'12A Q3'12A Q4'12A Q1'13A Q2'13A
    Delivered Units 10 253 2,440 4,900 5,150
    Cumulative Units 10 263 2,703 7,603 12,753
    Implied Production (by latest VIN)


    16,398
    Reserve



    3,645
    VIN Issued Production #
    5/16/2013 13,017
    5/20/2013 12,900
    5/23/2013 13,226
    5/29/2013 13,430
    5/31/2013 14,065
    6/5/2013 14,631
    6/10/2013 15,089
    6/11/2013 14,545
    6/11/2013 14,564
    6/12/2013 14,721
    6/16/2013 15,508
    6/18/2013 15,588
    6/20/2013 15,638
    6/20/2013 15,639
    6/21/2013 15,685
    6/21/2013 15,747
    6/21/2013 15,796
    6/23/2013 15,736
    6/23/2013 15,760
    6/24/2013 16,036
    6/24/2013 16,095
    6/25/2013 16,071
    6/25/2013 16,071
    6/25/2013 16,073
    6/25/2013 16,078
    6/25/2013 16,092
    6/26/2013 16,038
    6/26/2013 16,080
    6/26/2013 16,116
    6/26/2013 16,121
    6/27/2013 16,152
    6/27/2013 16,153
    6/27/2013 16,186
    6/27/2013 16,218
    7/1/2013 16,398
    7/2/2013 16,436
    7/2/2013 16,448
    7/2/2013 16,472
    7/5/2013 16,477
    7/6/2013 16,922
    7/6/2013 16,942
    7/8/2013 16,487
    7/8/2013 16,489
    7/8/2013 16,676
    7/8/2013 16,927
    7/11/2013 17,149
    7/12/2013 17,237
    7/12/2013 17,239
    7/15/2013 17,324
    7/16/2013 17,334
    7/18/2013 17,528
    7/19/2013 17,589
    7/19/2013 17,596
    7/20/2013 17,616
    7/22/2013 17,628
    7/23/2013 17,889
    7/24/2013 17,877
    7/26/2013 18,170
    7/26/2013 18,201
    7/27/2013 18,318
    7/28/2013 18,314
    7/29/2013 18,317
    7/31/2013 18,792
    8/1/2013 18,689
    8/2/2013 18,884
    8/3/2013 18,937
    8/3/2013 18,997
    8/5/2013 18,935
    8/5/2013 19,004
    8/5/2013 19,581
    8/6/2013 19,622
    8/7/2013 19,526
    8/7/2013 19,569
    8/7/2013 19,643
    8/7/2013 19,644
    8/9/2013 19,798
    8/9/2013 19,821
    8/10/2013 19,802
    8/10/2013 19,847
    8/11/2013 19,846
    8/12/2013 19,877
    8/12/2013 19,997
    8/12/2013 20,001
    8/13/2013 19,910
    8/13/2013
    20,000
    8/13/2013 20,039
    8/13/2013 20,182
    8/14/2013 20,228
    8/14/2013 20,344
    8/15/2013 20,008
    8/19/2013 20,552
     

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