Model S Tracking

[TT_Lambo]

Hello fellow Tesla Model S owners,

I am doing some independent research trying to track production of Model S cars and I thought it would be a good idea to share my thoughts and hopefully get some feedback from the board. All in all, the more people we have contributing the more accurate out data can become. Fellow forum member, Craig, has been kind enough to provide us with some of the data (replicated below). In short, what I am trying to do is track how closely VIN numbers track to production schedules.

For example, At the end of Q2'13 Tesla delivered roughly 12,753 Model S cars. If I trace a VIN dated 7/1/13 (the end of Q2) I get 16,398, a 3,645 difference. I am assuming this difference is related to reservations made as Elon stated the production floor isn't fully utilize (can't meet demand). Now, the latest VIN shared on the board was on 8/19/13 at 20,552. Give or take 3k reservation cars, that implies roughly 685 cars being produced per week (8/19/13 VIN - reservation cars vs. 12,753 cars delivered through Q2'13).

This data is very interesting as it implies they are quickly improving the utilization of the production floor and on route to meet their excess demand. Their latest conference call note they were producing ~400 per week. I think it is safe to assume this number should increase significantly as the polish their production process.

Thoughts?

Reported Deliveries	Q2'12A	Q3'12A	Q4'12A	Q1'13A	Q2'13A
Delivered Units	10	253	2,440	4,900	5,150
Cumulative Units	10	263	2,703	7,603	12,753
Implied Production (by latest VIN)				16,398
Reserve					3,645

VIN Issued	Production #
5/16/2013	13,017
5/20/2013	12,900
5/23/2013	13,226
5/29/2013	13,430
5/31/2013	14,065
6/5/2013	14,631
6/10/2013	15,089
6/11/2013	14,545
6/11/2013	14,564
6/12/2013	14,721
6/16/2013	15,508
6/18/2013	15,588
6/20/2013	15,638
6/20/2013	15,639
6/21/2013	15,685
6/21/2013	15,747
6/21/2013	15,796
6/23/2013	15,736
6/23/2013	15,760
6/24/2013	16,036
6/24/2013	16,095
6/25/2013	16,071
6/25/2013	16,071
6/25/2013	16,073
6/25/2013	16,078
6/25/2013	16,092
6/26/2013	16,038
6/26/2013	16,080
6/26/2013	16,116
6/26/2013	16,121
6/27/2013	16,152
6/27/2013	16,153
6/27/2013	16,186
6/27/2013	16,218
7/1/2013	16,398
7/2/2013	16,436
7/2/2013	16,448
7/2/2013	16,472
7/5/2013	16,477
7/6/2013	16,922
7/6/2013	16,942
7/8/2013	16,487
7/8/2013	16,489
7/8/2013	16,676
7/8/2013	16,927
7/11/2013	17,149
7/12/2013	17,237
7/12/2013	17,239
7/15/2013	17,324
7/16/2013	17,334
7/18/2013	17,528
7/19/2013	17,589
7/19/2013	17,596
7/20/2013	17,616
7/22/2013	17,628
7/23/2013	17,889
7/24/2013	17,877
7/26/2013	18,170
7/26/2013	18,201
7/27/2013	18,318
7/28/2013	18,314
7/29/2013	18,317
7/31/2013	18,792
8/1/2013	18,689
8/2/2013	18,884
8/3/2013	18,937
8/3/2013	18,997
8/5/2013	18,935
8/5/2013	19,004
8/5/2013	19,581
8/6/2013	19,622
8/7/2013	19,526
8/7/2013	19,569
8/7/2013	19,643
8/7/2013	19,644
8/9/2013	19,798
8/9/2013	19,821
8/10/2013	19,802
8/10/2013	19,847
8/11/2013	19,846
8/12/2013	19,877
8/12/2013	19,997
8/12/2013	20,001
8/13/2013	19,910
8/13/2013	20,000
8/13/2013	20,039
8/13/2013	20,182
8/14/2013	20,228
8/14/2013	20,344
8/15/2013	20,008
8/19/2013	20,552