Model S/X as a taxi or fleet vehicle

[Steph]

Production capability is really not the bottleneck. Sales are the bottleneck. If they started selling so many cars that production could not keep up, then it would be easy to raise the capital to expand production capacity. If they sold so many cars that the Freemont plant was too small, they'd be able to raise the money to buy another plant, based on such high consumer demand.

No. The hurdle is changing the way people think about transportation, so that they see EVs as being practical, and then designing and building an EV that people can afford.

Note: I consider EVs eminently practical. Most people do not yet. So when calculating the value of Tesla, plant capacity is not the most important factor. Public attitudes and the cost of EVs (which means, largely, the cost of batteries) vs. the cost of gas cars (which means largely the cost of gasoline) are what matters. I'm bullish on Tesla. But the changes that have to happen will happen gradually. I think 5% to 10% growth per year in stock price is a reasonable expectation.

Note also that expensive gasoline and expensive batteries gives the economic advantage to gasoline even if the lifetime cost of ownership is lower for the EV, because many people cannot afford the high initial capital cost and the attendant interest payments. Many people will accept a higher total cost if the cash flow is lower: I.e. if the cost of gasoline is less than the interest payments on the higher purchase price. This is why it costs more to live if you are poor, since you are forced into lifestyle choices that are cheaper up front even though more expensive in the long run. This is an important issue for the widespread acceptance of EVs as long as batteries are expensive. And Tesla will have to get the annual maintenance cost well below $600!

I agree in most part but... The one thing you under estimate is demand.

I did the economics for taxi drivers in my city alone, Montréal.

They drive about 300 kilometers/day wich is about $42/day in gas alone. $42 * 300 days = $12600 - cost of electicity of $1200 = savings of $11400/year

That is without counting maintenance savings.

So, $11400 * 5 year = $57000 that magic number is the price of the model S (40kw they don't need a bigger battery)

So, when these guy hear about free cars, what do you think will be the outcome?

In Montreal alone, we have 10000 taxis and we have a small city.

And what about police cars?

I am very bullish on demand, economics are always rigth. My big question was supply and Mr Passin answered that question.

Edit: In this article: Hybrids prove very reliable | British Columbia they have taxis riding along for 160k km / year. With that number, model S would pay for itself in just about two years. It's not free, it makes money.

 

[Robert.Boston]

The Model S would make a great taxi. Lots of passenger space, lots of luggage space, no pollution or fuel cost while idling. If passengers could choose, they'd choose a Model S taxi over anything else (except, perhaps, the traditional London cab).

 

[YoungStranger]

The Model S would make a great taxi. Lots of passenger space, lots of luggage space, no pollution or fuel cost while idling. If passengers could choose, they'd choose a Model S taxi over anything else (except, perhaps, the traditional London cab).

The Model X would be an even better one. They could reverse the rear seats like the london black taxis, and have remote opening of the falcon doors. This would be a considerable sales opportunity to corner niche markets throughout the world.

 

[Steph]

The model S will make a great taxi, and the car is free!

There are millions of vehicle that can replaced with a model S. in fact, any vehicle doing more than 300km/day could be replaced with a free model S and save the planet at the same time.

 

[daniel]

I agree in most part but... The one thing you under estimate is demand.

I did the economics for taxi drivers in my city alone, Montréal.

They drive about 300 kilometers/day wich is about $42/day in gas alone. $42 * 300 days = $12600 - cost of electicity of $1200 = savings of $11400/year

That is without counting maintenance savings.

So, $11400 * 5 year = $57000 that magic number is the price of the model S (40kw they don't need a bigger battery)

So, when these guy hear about free cars, what do you think will be the outcome?

In Montreal alone, we have 10000 taxis and we have a small city.

And what about police cars?

I am very bullish on demand, economics are always rigth. My big question was supply and Mr Passin answered that question.

I think your analysis is oversimplified. You ignore public mistrust over battery longevity. You ignore the turnover time for cars. (People do not buy a new car until they feel their old one is no longer adequate. And for a business, such as a taxi company, it is not economical to trade off a depreciated but still usable asset for an expensive new one.) You ignore the cost of financing: If they buy a $70,000 car when a $40,000 car would work, they must pay interest on an additional $30,000. You ignore the cost of maintenance. A taxi company probably changes oil in-house. The Model S will require an expensive yearly maintenance. The Roadster is $600 per year.

I think the Model S would make an excellent taxi. But I think it's naive to think that all the taxi drivers in Montreal (or anywhere) will rush out to buy one. And if they drive 300 km per day, then the 4o kWh pack is insufficient unless they allocate several hours per day for charging, or they install their own private supercharger. They'll need the 65 kWh pack. And they'll probably want a number of options for comfort. And are there tax incentives in Montreal?

Adoption in taxi fleets will be gradual, as it will be among the public. But that's okay, because ramping up production in a manner that does not compromise quality will take time as well.

The Freemont plant will one day operate at capacity, and eventually Tesla will need more factories. But it will not happen over night. The question is not how big will they get, but rather how fast they will grow.

I agree with much of what you said here, but the 5% to 10% number is way too low. The reason is because the driving force behind TSLA for the next several years will be multiple expansion, not additional sales. I think that all Tesla has to do is deliver on the plan that they have in place already (no surprises) and the market will reward it a higher multiple with each milestone. If my projections are right, we could see TSLA at $250 in 5 years. I did a lot of work to come up with that 250 number which I won't bore you with here, but if people are interested I could share some of the math later.

The bottom line is if I wanted 5% or 10% a year I'd invest in Verizon. TSLA is a super-high-octane growth stock, if it isn't delivering 20% or more a year, then that means something is going terribly wrong fundamentally.

My usual disclaimer: all this is assumed in a vacuum and Elon getting hit by a bus, another serious recession, or a zombie apocalypse could change numbers significantly.

I defer to your obvious greater knowledge of the stock market. (Though I'm still unwilling to risk enough money on it to make a significant difference to me if you're right. I ain't selling my 200 shares, but I'm also not buying any more unless my $25 limit order executed for another 50.) (And I also have a few shares of Verizon, which I bought because they were the only cell phone company that would let me buy a phone, back when I had no credit history because 30 years of never missing a utility bill payment does not go on your credit report, and I never borrow money.)

 

[Steph]

I think your analysis is oversimplified. You ignore public mistrust over battery longevity. You ignore the turnover time for cars. (People do not buy a new car until they feel their old one is no longer adequate. And for a business, such as a taxi company, it is not economical to trade off a depreciated but still usable asset for an expensive new one.) You ignore the cost of financing: If they buy a $70,000 car when a $40,000 car would work, they must pay interest on an additional $30,000. You ignore the cost of maintenance. A taxi company probably changes oil in-house. The Model S will require an expensive yearly maintenance. The Roadster is $600 per year.

I think the Model S would make an excellent taxi. But I think it's naive to think that all the taxi drivers in Montreal (or anywhere) will rush out to buy one. And if they drive 300 km per day, then the 4o kWh pack is insufficient unless they allocate several hours per day for charging, or they install their own private supercharger. They'll need the 65 kWh pack. And they'll probably want a number of options for comfort. And are there tax incentives in Montreal?

Adoption in taxi fleets will be gradual, as it will be among the public. But that's okay, because ramping up production in a manner that does not compromise quality will take time as well.

I'm not ignoring anything. I think your are over thinking

For taxis, it will be a simple business decision, save 12-15k/year per taxi and boost profit or driver's salary ans do this with the best car in the world.

The 40kw battery will be just perfect for taxis. They don't drive continually, they do stop frequently at there base or even for lunch. A supercharger will not be needed, a 240v outlet will do just fine.

I think adoption for taxi driver will be quicker then you think. Hell, if I was a taxi driver and heard about this car, I would reserve right away base on the savings I will make.

As far a repairs go, I think a car repair guy will have no problem doing maintenance on the model S. Changing tires, breaks, adding fluids, not what you could call rocket science.

So think again

 

[Citizen-T]

I'm not ignoring anything. I think your are over thinking

For taxis, it will be a simple business decision, save 12-15k/year per taxi and boost profit or driver's salary ans do this with the best car in the world.

The 40kw battery will be just perfect for taxis. They don't drive continually, they do stop frequently at there base or even for lunch. A supercharger will not be needed, a 240v outlet will do just fine.

I think adoption for taxi driver will be quicker then you think. Hell, if I was a taxi driver and heard about this car, I would reserve right away base on the savings I will make.

As far a repairs go, I think a car repair guy will have no problem doing maintenance on the model S. Changing tires, breaks, adding fluids, not what you could call rocket science.

So think again

I'm with @daniel on this one. It might make sense, but it's not going to happen very quickly. I think Tesla would have to really push in this direction and go sell the benefits of these cars to taxi fleets, and I don't see Elon spending his time on that. Some will certainly make the switch, but it's going to be a slow adoption, at least for the foreseeable future.

 

[Steph]

I'm with @daniel on this one. It might make sense, but it's not going to happen very quickly. I think Tesla would have to really push in this direction and go sell the benefits of these cars to taxi fleets, and I don't see Elon spending his time on that. Some will certainly make the switch, but it's going to be a slow adoption, at least for the foreseeable future.

What you are saying is if you were a taxi driver and you heard about this "free" car you are saying you would not buy?

I would be the first to buy. The quicker the better, as soon as I would get my model S, the savings will be real. Why wait?

Additionally, I'm sure lots of taxi metering and communication apps will be created by third party developers so no expensive equipments need to be added to the car.

Please, tell me why you would not buy right away if you owned a taxi.

 

[Citizen-T]

What you are saying is if you were a taxi driver and you heard about this "free" car you are saying you would not buy?

I would be the first to buy. The quicker the better, as soon as I would get my model S, the savings will be real. Why wait?

Additionally, I'm sure lots of taxi metering and communication apps will be created by third party developers so no expensive equipments need to be added to the car.

Please, tell me why you would not buy right away if you owned a taxi.

1. Because I wouldn't hear about it right away given the lack of advertising.
2. When I did hear about it, I'd be very distrusting of this "free lunch".
3. Rather than go and do a full cost of ownership analysis like a good businessman, I'd just listen to my buddies who tell me that it's all just some tree-huggers conspiracy.
4. Even if I could be convinced, I probably don't have the capital to replace the whole fleet all at once, I may replace taxis as they need replacing, but continue running the ones I have for now.

These kinds of change just take time. It could certainly happen, but I think we are looking at a scale of years, not months. The adoption curve might be exponential, but it will start off very slow.

I get that you think otherwise, and that's fine. Both sides have laid out their cases, now it is time to just place your bets and let the market decide who is right.

 

[Steph]

1. Because I wouldn't hear about it right away given the lack of advertising.
2. When I did hear about it, I'd be very distrusting of this "free lunch".
3. Rather than go and do a full cost of ownership analysis like a good businessman, I'd just listen to my buddies who tell me that it's all just some tree-huggers conspiracy.
4. Even if I could be convinced, I probably don't have the capital to replace the whole fleet all at once, I may replace taxis as they need replacing, but continue running the ones I have for now.

These kinds of change just take time. It could certainly happen, but I think we are looking at a scale of years, not months. The adoption curve might be exponential, but it will start off very slow.

I get that you think otherwise, and that's fine. Both sides have laid out their cases, now it is time to just place your bets and let the market decide who is right.

1. Your business is about cars and you say you would not follow this kinda news? It's will be in every car magazine, probably front page.
2. You are under estimating the intelligence of these entrepreneurs. Savings is what drives their businesses and profits. They will listen and also listen to their brave colleagues who already have their model S and bragging about it.
3. When you see one, get it in, drive it, these businessman are perfectly capable of making their own opinion. And judging by the test drives reviews so far, I'd say they will be just as amazed as anybody else.
4. If you lack capital, leasing is the option. And with leasing comes the immediate savings.

I'm not saying these changes will not take time, they will. But It will go very fast as soon as the first drivers get some cars to show around. Then, Tesla will have lots of orders from taxi people.

 

[Citizen-T]

So give me a number. How many Model S taxis will be on the road by the end of 2012? By the end of 2015? By the end of 2020?

 

[Lloyd]

I'm with @daniel on this one. It might make sense, but it's not going to happen very quickly. I think Tesla would have to really push in this direction and go sell the benefits of these cars to taxi fleets, and I don't see Elon spending his time on that. Some will certainly make the switch, but it's going to be a slow adoption, at least for the foreseeable future.

I can easily see states mandating Taxi's in congested cities to REQUIRE that taxis be Electric or at minimum alternative fuel or Hybrid. That would change the equation and conversion quickly.

After the election, for either party, I believe that oil subsidies will be removed or cut. Gasoline is artificially low at the moment. Obama has used favors (keystone?) and requested that the Saudi's produce and ship more to the US prior to the election. I can see gasoline $6 to $8 following the election. Then it makes economic sense for a taxi fleet to go electric, but not with $3 gas.

 

[Steph]

So give me a number. How many Model S taxis will be on the road by the end of 2012? By the end of 2015? By the end of 2020?

I don't have a crystal ball so I really can't tell. But it just does not matter. What really matter at this point is the reservation rate. That is the number we should look at. There is 10k taxis only in the city I live in. There is millions of taxis out there and it makes sense to replace all of them.

And that is just taxis. The great thing about the model S is the more you drive, the more you save. So we have to expect lots of reservations coming from Police, Doctors on the road, real estate agents, function vehicles, security companies and more.

The reservation rate will tell us if and when they can accelerate production to the 100k/year theoretical production limit.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

I agree w/ Steph and Everes22. Tesla is really still unheard of. I want to start a taxi company just because it will be an all Tesla, super quiet and very efficient taxi company.
If you had a choice to ride in smooth silence w/ free wi-fi or a standard taxi what would it be?

And the Tesla ride was cheaper too, any contest?

 

[vfx]

While I agree that any well made electric is perfect for taxis, I question the Model S rear ingress and egress in taxi adoption. Limos and towncars yes, but taxis?

What do I know? I'm in LA.

 

[Steph]

While I agree that any well made electric is perfect for taxis, I question the Model S rear ingress and egress in taxi adoption. Limos and towncars yes, but taxis?

What do I know? I'm in LA.

Is there any problem getting in and out of a model S's back seats?

 

[vfx]

(no quote)

On the subject of adoption (like EV for Taxis) I look at the Dodge Sprinter van and the Ford Transit Connect. The EU with it's high gasoline prices has for decades driven around in those wedge shaped delivery vans. The adoption of those weird shaped delivery vehicles is slow here but finally coming as reduced fuel consumption beats VS traditional styling.

I looked at them both when they stated showing up and immediately declared If I had a business i would totally buy one of these aerodynamic shapes to move things around in. Not even a question in my mind. Amazing to me how slow it's happening here in the US.

EV adoption predictions have to look at this.

 

[Rifleman]

Is there any problem getting in and out of a model S's back seats?

The back seats may be just a little tricky to get in and out of for a taxi, but the real issue with use as a taxi would be rear seat headroom. Taxi's need to be able to transport passengers who are over 6 feet tall in relative comfort, and the back seat of a model S cannot do this.

 

[vfx]

Is there any problem getting in and out of a model S's back seats?

No.

How old are u?
How big are u?
What are you carrying?

I'm saying a Taxi is often a specialty built car designed for a specialized purpose.

 

[Steph]

No.

How old are u?
How big are u?
What are you carrying?

I'm saying a Taxi is often a specialty built car designed for a specialized purpose.

Yes.

And that is about to change. The model S has everything a taxi company would want in a taxi. Wi-Fi for it's customers, a computer in the car, communications, gps, maps, comfort, silence, roomy, two trunk, and environmentally friendly.

Tell me what is missing for a taxi?

Edit: Oh! And it's free!