Model S/X as a taxi or fleet vehicle

[richkae]

I have spent a lot of time looking at the economics of a Model S town car.
The main thing missing from this discussion is battery replacement.
A Lincoln town car will probably use fuel at about 22 cents per mile. ( 18 mpg - $4 per gallon )

You would likely want to replace the battery in the model s when it can no longer conveniently manage your 90th percentile day of driving. Let's say that is at 70% of capacity. If the battery is $35000 to replace after 100000 miles - that's 35 cents per mile and gasoline wins.
If the battery is $30000 to replace after 200000 miles, that's 15 cents per mile and electric wins.
In my dreams it's $25000 after 300000 miles, now you are around 8 cents per mile.
Which is closest to correct? We don't know.

I talked to a couple of small operators:
They buy Lincoln town cars <1 year used for $25k or so. They keep them for 3 years and 300,000 miles then they dispose of them for a couple thousand. Why? Because after 300k miles the transmissions start to go, and the engine soon follows.
( the operators I talked to see 100,000 miles per year and 300 mile days are typical )
That's about 7 or 8 cents per mile to own the Lincoln.
( there is probably another 2 or 3 cents per mile for oil changes, brake maintenance and tuneups )

The model S will be about $80k ( let's assume the battery is $35k of that and treat it separately ) so $45k. Hopefully you can keep it rolling twice as long as the Lincoln because it's drivetrain parts don't wear out. 600000 miles for $45k is about 7.5 cents per mile.
If that is true then we are back to the battery question.

Gasoline is the largest single ( non wage ) expense for the town car operator. If the batteries last long enough, the model s would give a huge advantage. Especially when gasoline is $5 and $6 per gallon soon...
Unfortunately we don't know how the battery holds up to 100000 miles per year nor do we have any idea what they will cost to replace.

 

[Steph]

I have spent a lot of time looking at the economics of a Model S town car.
The main thing missing from this discussion is battery replacement.
A Lincoln town car will probably use fuel at about 22 cents per mile. ( 18 mpg - $4 per gallon )

You would likely want to replace the battery in the model s when it can no longer conveniently manage your 90th percentile day of driving. Let's say that is at 70% of capacity. If the battery is $35000 to replace after 100000 miles - that's 35 cents per mile and gasoline wins.
If the battery is $30000 to replace after 200000 miles, that's 15 cents per mile and electric wins.
In my dreams it's $25000 after 300000 miles, now you are around 8 cents per mile.
Which is closest to correct? We don't know.

I talked to a couple of small operators:
They buy Lincoln town cars <1 year used for $25k or so. They keep them for 3 years and 300,000 miles then they dispose of them for a couple thousand. Why? Because after 300k miles the transmissions start to go, and the engine soon follows.
( the operators I talked to see 100,000 miles per year and 300 mile days are typical )
That's about 7 or 8 cents per mile to own the Lincoln.
( there is probably another 2 or 3 cents per mile for oil changes, brake maintenance and tuneups )

The model S will be about $80k ( let's assume the battery is $35k of that and treat it separately ) so $45k. Hopefully you can keep it rolling twice as long as the Lincoln because it's drivetrain parts don't wear out. 600000 miles for $45k is about 7.5 cents per mile.
If that is true then we are back to the battery question.

Gasoline is the largest single ( non wage ) expense for the town car operator. If the batteries last long enough, the model s would give a huge advantage. Especially when gasoline is $5 and $6 per gallon soon...
Unfortunately we don't know how the battery holds up to 100000 miles per year nor do we have any idea what they will cost to replace.

Battery replacement talks are complete non-sense when making a ROI analysis. In my cost compare between the corolla and the model S, I simply trash both cars at the end of five years and still managed to save close to $20k in 5 years with the model S.

If after five years, I could spend $10-20k and get another full five year out the the cars, that would just be icing on the cake. Would it?

 

[richkae]

Battery replacement talks are complete non-sense when making a ROI analysis. In my cost compare between the corolla and the model S, I simply trash both cars at the end of five years and still managed to save close to $20k in 5 years with the model S.

If after five years, I could spend $10-20k and get another full five year out the the cars, that would just be icing on the cake. Would it?

Your scenario puts 350,000 miles on the car in 5 years and you assume it can do that on one battery.
You have no idea if that is true.

 

[Steph]

Your scenario puts 350,000 miles on the car in 5 years and you assume it can do that on one battery.
You have no idea if that is true.

I assume it does yes. If not, get the 85kw, pay $20k more and get 8 years unlimited miles guaranty and add three years to my analysis, savings should still be around $20k but on 8 years. Not sure the corolla would survive eight years though.

 

[JRP3]

I think warranties may be different for fleet vehicles.

 

[Steph]

I think warranties may be different for fleet vehicles.

Maybe, maybe not.

If I had a sizable taxi operation (2-3k) taxis, I would pick-up the phone and get answers to my questions. Then, I would place an order if all my questions are answered.

So, taxi guys... get on busy on the phone

 

[dsm363]

If Tesla created a side/commercial business, I could see something like this happening. Taxis don't want or need really nice leather interiors or other niceties most likely unless they are running a higher end towncar business.

 

[Steph]

If Tesla created a side/commercial business, I could see something like this happening. Taxis don't want or need really nice leather interiors or other niceties most likely unless they are running a higher end towncar business.

You have a good point but...

Tesla is very disruptive, we don't know everything that's gonna come with it. Just like Tesla is disruptive, a taxi company using Model S would be disruptive for the taxi business.

You will be offering premium quality cars to your clients and it will cost you less to provide this service.

See the idea?

 

[YoungStranger]

For me Model X is the perfect taxi (remotely operated doors, card payment, Wifi, but
This was the future taxi 20 years ago - complete with driver - is it a BEV or a hydrogen fuel cell though?

 

[Steph]

View attachment 7446

For me Model X is the perfect taxi (remotely operated doors, card payment, Wifi, but
This was the future taxi 20 years ago - complete with driver - is it a BEV or a hydrogen fuel cell though?

The best taxi will be a model S or X equipped with Google's automated driving. No need of a driver.

 

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

 

[YoungStranger]

The best taxi will be a model S or X equipped with Google's automated driving. No need of a driver.

Ummmm . this Johnny Cab came to an unfortunate end

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H5k--n7sFI

 

[Discoducky]

Ummmm . this Johnny Cab came to an unfortunate end

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H5k--n7sFI

Hope they put an homage to that scene in the new Total Recall!

 

[daniel]

I must protest. Technology is good but we must keep the human element. Many a taxi ride I have experience were made memorable by the human factor. Old school maybe, but a future devoid of chance interactions is a cold lifeless existence. May economics not reduce humanity to bean counting but lift us to seek those experiences.

I agree with you. And I don't expect reliable self-driving cars in my lifetime. But corporations will always replace people with machines wherever they see profit in it. People will object, but the next generation will accept the new methods as normal.

When I was young, we were told that automation would free people to work 10 or 15 hours a week and have loads of leisure time. But what actually happened was that fewer people did the work, at the same or lower wages than before (with the exception of a few skilled technicians) and people were fired. Now people think it would be ridiculous to use people to do work that machines can do.

20 years after reliable self-driving cars are introduced, people will laugh at the idea that we should have taxi drivers. Sadly, the taxis won't have humanoid robot drivers that someone can rip off their pedestals to take control over the car. The "driver" will be a routine in the computer's program.

Perhaps for a while there will be freelancers who, for a fee, will offer to ride with you, chat, and tell you the sights as you drive by them.

 

[Uncle Ron]

EDIT,,

 

[Steph]

I don't expect reliable self-driving cars in my lifetime.

Are you dying?

Google's self-driving car gets green light in Nevada | Technology | guardian.co.uk

 

[spatterso911]

Are you dying?

Google's self-driving car gets green light in Nevada | Technology | guardian.co.uk

My vote for one of the funniest yet potentially depressing posts of all time!

Daniel, I sincerely hope the answer to that question is "Not any faster than the rest of us!"


Sent from my iPad

 

[daniel]

Are you dying?

Google's self-driving car gets green light in Nevada | Technology | guardian.co.uk

I'm 64 years old, and just not as optimistic as some folks are about the successful commercialization of these cars. But maybe I should clarify: I didn't mean I wouldn't see a test car; I meant I would not see driverless cars that you could buy and own and drive wherever you like just by telling it or keying in where you wanted to go.

I'm not saying it's a bad idea. Nothing could be worse than the morons we allow on the roads today. But between the remaining issues to be resolved, testing, and public acceptance, I don't expect to see it. I could be wrong. I'm talking about my expectation.

There was a story (perhaps apocryphal, I hope not) about a guy who rigged a convertible to be driven from the back seat, and then trained a chimpanzee to sit in the front and hold the wheel. Then he drove around the streets of Hollywood.

 

[jcstp]

i guess this is current version of autonomus Taxi's

home | Ultra Global PRT

PRT Blog, automated people mover (APM), greenhouse gas, light rail, shuttle bus

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

I'm 64 years old, and just not as optimistic as some folks are about the successful commercialization of these cars. But maybe I should clarify: I didn't mean I wouldn't see a test car; I meant I would not see driverless cars that you could buy and own and drive wherever you like just by telling it or keying in where you wanted to go.

I'm looking forward to the kind of autonomous car world depicted in "Minority Report" and "I, Robot":

Autonomous car - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If we all move towards EVs that are smart in a lot of ways (the Model S being the first of that kind), then, I don't see that bit of science fiction *not* coming true in the next 40-50 years. It's more practical than the 'flying car' world depicted in "Back to the Future II".

In any case, I'll not be around either in all likelihood