This I can answer definitively. Elon gets his car first.Who gets there car first all else being the same?
Outside of that, all guesses are just that. We don't know what's going to make the most sense to Tesla, we can just infer from what they've done in the past - most recently with the X rollout. I got my 90D before many P90Ds - which was a benefit of being in California and them trying to do a Q1 push. It's not always clear and certainly not terribly predictable.