Model: When does the AP HW2 fleet reach "several hundred million miles"

[andrewket]

Tesla recently stated: "These features operate on a new hardware and software platform. Therefore, their rollout will be measured and cautious until we have generated confidence across several hundred million miles of real-world usage."

I thought it would be interesting to model the cumulative miles driven by the HW2 fleet and see where 300M miles (the most liberal definition of several) lands.

Short answer: At the end of June, 2017, the HW2 fleet will have driven 332.4M miles.

Assumptions:

1. HW2 cars hit the roads on 11/1
2. Tesla is adding 8K cars per month
3. Several means 3
4. The average yearly number of miles driven is 13,476 (I used the USA average across all demographics. USA has the highest average, so if anything, my numbers may be slightly too liberal.)

Link to spreadsheet @google.

 

[MXWing]

Love that you made an attempt to crunch these numbers!

Personally I don't think it's 350 million miles that makes EAP ready for showtime.

A driver doing 50,000 miles a year that is dedicated to QA of EAP and FSDC has got to be worth a million miles of raw data without input back to development.

Any passive data should be seen as a bonus.

I was in the 1000 car HW2 rollout and found many issues that should be looked at after only 200 miles of driving.

 

[andrewket]

It's not all or nothing, obviously since tesla deployed the first 1k cars. But I think it helps establish a time frame for parity with AP1. I've seen a few people say "tesla said it would be released in December!", and are now upset. That's not what they said. They said beginning in December with incremental releases, and they made that date - by the skin on their teeth.

I honestly think it's going to be closer to May/June to reach parity with AP1. I'll be happy to be wrong since I just upgraded my S to AP2