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Model X Comparison and Total Cost of Ownership

Discussion in 'Model X' started by Local host, May 17, 2012.

  1. Local host

    Local host Member

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    I have been trying to justify the speculated high price of the Model X by comparing it to other cars. I have no problem convincing myself, but my wife will be a lot harder. 95k for a car is not reasonable for a lot of people, but if I can show here that the cost is much lower compared to other ICE cars that she would consider, then I may have a chance at getting the battery size and options that I want.

    We need a car that seats 6 - 7, so I have compared large SUVs for the most part. I don't like minivans and am not aware of an EV minivan. I estimated the price of the X using Model S prices and options. I am hoping they will be very close. The TCO data I used is based on what I found at Edmunds and Kelly Blue Book. Cost of fuel is based on prices in Ottawa, Canada. Some of the vehicles also require premium gas, which accounts for the higher prices. I estimated the depreciation based on the lowest amount out of all of the vehicles and took off a bit more because I believe the X will hold it value more (maybe this is wishful thinking?). This seems to have been the case with the RAV 4 EVs that can be found on eBay, but these used a different battery technology, so it may not be a valid comparison.

    Maintenance and repair are areas that I have no idea. For repairs, I went with the lowest number for the ICE cars. My estimate for maintenance is likely completely off.

    At around 8 years the Model X becomes the cheapest car to own and operate.

    Any changes that members would recommend? I fear i might have played with the numbers in the X's favour a little too much. :redface:

    ModelX.JPG
     
  2. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    I suck at number games, but if you want to be fair (maybe you don't ;) ), might want to throw in the old and new Rav 4 EVs? Less range, but as you noted, the old Rav 4 still goes strong, and the new one has better amenities and a lower price point than the X. Though if you're going for higher mileage capabilities, that's sort of a moot point.
     
  3. Lloyd

    Lloyd Active Member

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    Many of the Rav4's have had to replace their battery pack. I'm not sure that the battery pack will outlast the vehicle in most cases. To be fair you need to factor that in as well. Say you get 5000 charges out of your battery, and it will cost $20,000 to replace it when due. These are guesses and that is all anyone can do, but it is definately not free. So $4.00 per full charge, I believe is a fair estimate of battery wear and tear.


     
  4. Zextraterrestrial

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    I think your depreciation is a little low. Most higher priced cars depreciate that much just out the door. How much have roadsters been going for that have 40K miles or so on them? even with a good battery they are $65K to 85K maybe? (from what I think I have seen, not sure about miles/price combos)

    Not bad overall but I think it should be a little more.
     
  5. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

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    This is for Model S, but should be pretty applicable to Model X: Teslanomics

    I personally think they're being too optimistic on residual value, because people will be worried about remaining battery life for a while yet.
     
  6. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    Are you assuming constant fuel prices over the time period?
    That is a very significant mistake.
     
  7. DuncanWatson

    DuncanWatson Member

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    Gas Prices will increase. I have been using $0.33/year as a conservative estimate of gas price increase. I assume that the price increases weekly over the period in question for simplicity. My suggestions is that you add this to your TCO.

    opps forgot link: Rising Gas Prices: How High Has it Gone Over the Years? [CHARTS]
    This might help you decide how much to increase gas costs.
     
  8. user497

    user497 Member

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    The annual required Roadster service is $600 or so. After 8 years that would be another $4,800 in maintenance. I don't know what the service plan will cost for the Model S and X. The other thing to worry about is what happens when your UMC or other charge cable breaks. I would plan on $600 or so every 5 years. Also don't forget you may need to pay an electrician $500 or so to install the outlet and more if you are having issues with your circuit. One unfortunate thing I have found is that a lot of the money you save on gas can easily be spend on electricians and cables so over time there may not be a huge "fuel" saving.
     
  9. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    If you are just using the "this is more cost effective in the long run" argument then you're setting yourself up for conflicts in the future. I'd promote the intangibles like "we're going to be the first in the world to own one of these" and "we're helping to create a better future." Just a thought.
     
  10. SByer

    SByer '08 #383

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    How about 'EVs just drive better.'

    The 911 was mobile therapy, the Roadster, much more so. That's worth something. How much? Hard to say, but last week when it was 80 out, and they had just finished micro-grinding the commute lane on Hwy 85 (which is a parking lot in the other two lanes), it was worth quite a bit.

    Speaking of which, what are the charges on some of the HOV/toll lanes during commute hours? In areas with that sort of thing, should that be part of the TCO calculation?
     
  11. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    I feel the same way with my calc's for Model S. This is best described with supply/demand and don't think your numbers are as "favoring" as you might think. Depreciation will be very low as demand for the car will be high due to timeless design (Model X falcon doors I'm still on the fence about and need to see it in person), maintenance cost will be several times lower than compeditors and there won't be 50 of the same car sitting on a lot in every major city either; there will only be waiting lists. And we aren't talking about waiting in a queue outside of the Apple store for a few days; months can be an eternity for the enthusiastic buyer. Not to mention that gas prices will continue their march upwards with global demand going crazy in China and India.

    EV supply will be constrained, gas supply will be more constrained, demand will still need to be satiated. I don't believe we are seeing this with the Volt (for several reasons) and the Leaf (for several other reasons) but the Model S/X should be break out hits and BlueStar should cement the effect.

    The one caveat I can see to this is a general willingness to ignore the TCO among car buyers. People don't realize how expensive it is to own a Mini-van. 18MPG and 20K miles/year in 5 years is equivalent to a good college education. The people who wake up to this are going to want Model S/X, they will go to a store, find out there is a waiting list and we'll get bidding wars. Very similar to houses in a particular location.

    I will say this, and I disagree with TM on this point, "2013 will be the year of the Model S". It's a game changer, a "must" have to the upper-middle class (every "G" type you can think of) and there are a lot more than 20K of us who buy premium sedans in the US every year.

    Model X will continue this trend since it will have the same effect on the upper-middle class "family". Maybe even more so if TM can adjust the torque curve of the second motor to be ideal for highway speeds. Range benefits should be substantial...but anyway, that's my 2 cents...
     
  12. Local host

    Local host Member

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    I like the new Rav 4 EV, but from what I have read, they will not be sold outside of California. The range is also a bit limited for me. I have a young family and I need the car to perform just as an ICE would. That's why I am looking at the 85 Kwh battery in the X. We are a family of 5 with 3 kids under three. I don't think I could get three baby seats into the RAV's second row of seats.
     
  13. Local host

    Local host Member

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    #13 Local host, May 18, 2012
    Last edited: May 18, 2012
    I factored a 6% annual increase per litre.
     
  14. jimbakker666

    jimbakker666 Member

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    #14 jimbakker666, Jun 11, 2012
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2012
    I didn't see that you compared the X to a particular SUV, but you may want to choose a price point for your comparison SUV. The more expensive vehicle will cost more per year in registration and insurance, as well as replacement items like premium tires (that may or may not be on the X...I don't know). People will frequently qualify the 'lower cost of EV ownership' statement as being 'with respect to vehicles in the same class'. That's an important distinction.

    I learned this myself when hearing about the rumored cost of annual maintenance on the S, which roughly equals the cost of all the maintenance I've put into my Honda Civic over the course of five years and 70k miles. Apparently, expensive cars cost more to maintain...something this commoner never knew ;)

    Anyways, just a little more to consider in your cost analysis.

    EDIT: What is the $600 you have listed under 'Maintenance' for the X? That's per year right? Why would all the other SUVs be a minimum $3000 per year in maintenance?
     
  15. Local host

    Local host Member

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    #15 Local host, Jun 13, 2012
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2012
    The maintenance estimates were taken from both Edmunds and another site that calculates the total cost of ownership for vehicles. Edmunds calculated the maintenance accordingly:

    "This is the estimated expense of the two types of maintenance: scheduled and unscheduled. Scheduled maintenance is the performance of factory-recommended items at periodic mileage and/or calendar intervals. Unscheduled maintenance includes wheel alignment and the replacement of items such as the battery, brakes, headlamps, hoses, exhaust system parts, taillight/turn signal bulbs, tires and wiper blades/inserts. Estimated tire replacement costs are supplied to Edmunds.com by The Tire Rack, Inc."

    I used the Roadster annual ranger fees to calculate the maintenance costs for the X. The fee is $600.00 a year, so that calculation was incorrect. I have since read that the ranger fees for the Model S will be $200.00 a year, so I have updated the estimate to use that number. The $3000 for the other SUVs is over 5 years.

    ModelX.JPG

    I have no idea how much repairs will be so I used the same amount as the cheapest car.

    After reading this thread in the Roadster forum, I wonder if the X will be as cheap as to run as I estimate. I think in reality you will only really save the amount you would spend on gas for an equivalent SUV.

    I need an SUV that seats 7 or 8. I chose a number of SUV's that I liked and would buy and also to see how the X fared against models from different price categories. I would lean towards an Audi Q7, but now that I see what it would really cost to own, it has gone down on my list.

    I might consider a slightly used one.

    Seeing as I am estimating the cost of the X 85 as based on the Model S options, this car could be completely out of my spending comfort zone (it's nearing that now, hence this whole exercise). The sticker price with my options is completely out of my wifes comfort zone and I will really have to put on a hard sell when my number is called.

    ModelXOptions.JPG

    Cheers.
     
  16. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    Great work! I'm in the same situation with my Model S reservation. I will add financing to my calculation and fiddle around until monthly costs are below that of comparable ICE/hybrid car, with rates included. That might help making the decision even if we don't finance at all.

    In the end, Model S and X are not money savers. They get you off oil and local emissions.
     
  17. Local host

    Local host Member

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    Thanks. I look forward to hearing about your ownership experience once you get your Model S. I think once owners get their vehicles and have them on the road for a while, I will have a better idea of what the true costs of the model X will be.

    I am also looking into leasing as an option. Canadians still do not know how much the S will cost and if their will be an option to lease. I am hoping that that prices are close considering the near parity of our currencies.
     

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