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Model X delivery time for new reservations?

Discussion in 'Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by ZachShahan, Sep 1, 2015.

  1. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Member

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    Perhaps this is being discussed elsewhere, but I couldn't find such a thread, so...

    The Model X reservation page says "The delivery estimate for new reservations is early 2016. " My understanding is that there's well over 20,000 reservations at the moment. With maybe a couple thousand produced this year, and then ~4,000/mo (expecting Tesla produces a bit more of the Xs than the Ss as Elon indicated it probably would), that seems to indicate that new reservations wouldn't be fulfilled until ~June... which is not "early 2016."

    Does the text on the Model X page simply need to be updated? Is the assumption there are >20,000 reservations simply wrong? Is there an assumption production will ramp up a lot in Q1 2016? (I don't remember hearing that.) Smth else?
     
  2. CmdrThor

    CmdrThor Member

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    You don't seem to understand Tesla's date terminology. June is in the first half of 2016 and therefore is indeed "early 2016".
     
  3. drinkerofkoolaid

    drinkerofkoolaid Active Member

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    My guess is Tesla has already begun producing some number of Model X daily, to make sure Tesla doesn't encounter any problems when increasing production. I also think Tesla is secretly preparing for an onslaught of orders, once additional information is released, and Tesla is actively displaying the Model X.

    As of today, Tesla has sold around 100,000 Model S. My guess is a significant number of people who own a Model S are planning to sell their Model S to buy a Model X, or are planning to buy a Model X as a second vehicle.
     
  4. simplejack

    simplejack Member

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    Your analysis seems sound to me. No real reason they are claiming early 2016 unless they plan to produce more than is expected.

    Most likely they just forgot to update website while they were working on the content of the Aug email for last 9 months.
     
  5. ssq

    ssq Member

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    I recall Elon saying the second production line is capable of 800/week Xs. I am assuming S orders might have slowed down a little bit in anticipation of the X. I for one did not go for the 70D because I wanted to check out the X first. Now there must be some cannibalization of S sales by the X too. Assuming all this, could it be that the first production line is capable of shifting to X mode/config and ramp up production to 800+N /week where N=800 - #S produced.. if N=400(average assumption while not impacting S deliveries). If you assume 1200/week and further assuming full ramp production from December onwards, they can potentially hit 4800-5000 X/week. Is this a wild assumption?
     
  6. ZachShahan

    ZachShahan Member

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    Thanks. That's my assumption as well, but wanted to see some other thoughts and if I somehow missed something.

    - - - Updated - - -

    On the last call, Elon said the production line could do up to 2000/week, but would realistically hit something like 1600 or 1800 a week on average (iirc). This is for X & S, and general assumption is 50-50 demand & production, but he said they'd likely produce a higher % of the X (~60%) in the beginning of 2016 to try to get the SUVs to people who had reservations in for years, which is why I estimated ~4000 Xs per month.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think that's a joke, and yeah, I thought of it as well. :D I'm assuming they've just forgotten to update the message since reservations passed the "early" part of the year.
     
  7. Cottonwood

    Cottonwood Roadster#433, Model S#S37

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    If September 29 deliveries are 3rd quarter, then in Tesla speak, I certainly expect that June30, first half, counts as early 2016.

    No joke...
     
  8. CmdrThor

    CmdrThor Member

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    No joke at all. Look at when first Model Xs are being delivered. In Q3 ... the next to last day in Q3. Design studio was launched in August .. on August 31 at 11:59 PM PDT. Tesla Time: you're very lucky if they actually make the date, and if they do make the date it is the last possible day to be counted as making the date.
     
  9. hoskme

    hoskme Member

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    I reserved an X on August 30 in Canada and was told it would be about a year before it would be produced.
     
  10. Jeva

    Jeva BKINTME

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    I'm just over 20k in line and was told the same "1st half of 2016" as is on the site. My current lease is up in March so I'm in no particular hurry...April/May would suit me which sounds about right if they are hitting ~4k builds a month.
     

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