Model X depreciation vs wait for Model Y

[MrAliG]

Moderator comment - posts moved from "Model Y - UK estimated dates and pricing."

I see some people speculating the Model Y RHD might come from China around the end of this year.

I am still totally torn as to how to replace my X at year end when the PCP runs out. My wife is pretty insistent that she loves her Tesla and she doesn't really want to try anything else. Of course when we got the Tesla she was insistent that she loved her RangeRover Sport. I have thought about switching to something like an EQC to tide me over but I feel there will be a lot of depreciation.

I could just keep the X for another 18 months. However, enough things have needed fixed recently - control arm, door opener - that I don't really want to run it outside of warranty. I also wonder that with elevated values today due to the wait for a new one, that you could see a lot of depreciation in 2022 if you don't sell it while prices are strong.

 

[gangzoom]

I also wonder that with elevated values today due to the wait for a new one, that you could see a lot of depreciation in 2022 if you don't sell it while prices are strong.

If we are been really honest the truth is any brand new car will deprecated more than used car. There is nothing wrong at all with wanting a change or a new car, but using man maths doesn't really reflect reality .

Depending on when/how much you paid for your current X its deprecation curve is pretty flat compared to any new car.

You can ofcourse sell it now, but unless you don't replace it the new car will deprecated more. But actually the biggest issue is what would you replace it with.

Having just spent half term in Devon with a fully loaded X, I cannot think of any other EV that will seat 2 adults in the 3rd row for hours with no complaints. Infact the 3rd row passengers loved the space to stretch their legs in alise!!

As nice as the Y is, its essentially a 3 on stilts, and personally for me having got use to the luxury of space, a Y would be a substantial down grade that unless financially forced I personally wouldn't do.

The 'problem' though is a brand new X is knocking on £100k, and that not even knowing when you can get one.

Tesla is now offering a brand new '90' kWh pack for older cars for around $20k installed. Given our 4 year old 75D is now worth about £50k, even with a £20k battery upgrade in 4 years time its substantially cheaper than buying a £100k new one.

If money wasn't an issue I wouldn't hesitate to order a new X, but there are much better ways we can spend the £50k needed for a swap, a new X would be nice but not £50k nice.......If we were to spend another £50k tomorrow on another EV it would be a Model 3 to sit along side the X .

Good luck with your conundrum.....which Tesla to get next, as they say 'It's a nice problem to have'!!

 

[UrbanSplash]

I love the X but couldn’t justify current prices for one. Also interested in Y, but seeing as the 3 is doing so well I just can’t see it coming over here anytime soon. I already thought they would be taking pre orders by now. They love cash in the bank even if it’s ages away from launch. Makes me think it’s mega ages away.

 

[MrAliG]

I have a 75D which is currently valued at 55k by Webuyanycar. Could probably get a bit more for it but I use that as a benchmark value. This is more than it was worth a year ago.

I am suspicious that when it is five years old and a new Model X is available that it will drop to around 40% of the new value so closer to 35K. Thus I am in the odd situation where keeping a car for an extra year it might actually depreciate more than a new one would.

I would be happier to consider this if I had faith in the car not going wrong in that year. But although it has never let me down it has needed more warranty repairs already than any car I have ever owned. The Tesla extended warranty has very poor coverage especially of things that seem likely to break such as the lights or suspension. Plus that is another 1750 I’d have to shell out further increasing the cost to keep the car for a year to 18 months.

The big issue is exactly what @gangzoom says though. No other EV meets our needs as well as the X.

I think a Y LR would probably be the best stop gap if I wanted to take advantage of the strong current value of the X.

 

[gangzoom]

The Tesla extended warranty has very poor coverage especially of things that seem likely to break such as the lights or suspension. Plus that is another 1750 I’d have to shell out further increasing the cost to keep the car for a year to 18 months..

The Tesla extended warranty isn't worth the paper you can print it on, Lexus on the other hand will give put a 12 month warranty for 'free' just to for taking it to a dealer service, they don't even care the car has missed a service and never been to the main dealer before!!!

But given the choice we would keep the X over the Lexus every time. Am going to risk it out of warranty, the only car am interested in replacing the X with is another X but the £50k difference will be enough for a Y, so either way the X stays.

Given how well its served us as a family over the last 4 years and 50k miles, am also pretty attached to it, so quite looking forwards to longer term ownership and eventually putting in a new battery for it in around 2025.

Infact we have just replanned our Scotland road trip after COVID cancelled it last year. Stopping along the way to see friends (also avoid paying ££££ for AirBnB rooms ). Turns out we may have to only charge 3 times whilst driving for the whole trip!!

Pretty remarkable Tesla launched this thing nearly 5 years ago, other manufacturers are only now catching up, yet still none offer the passenger carrying ability of the X without turning into a van.

 

[gangzoom]

I love the X but couldn’t justify current prices for one.

Me neither, Tesla reported back in 2016 they were apparently making 30% profit on each X sold. Batteries have got cheaper, the new X is essentially the same as the old one so no real retooling needed. So even with the new X having a 30% bigger battery, I cannot see why Tesla now wants £90k+ for a new one when the entry level car in 2016 was £64k.

The profit margins on the new S/X must be close to 50% for Tesla!! Good for Tesla, but not for consumers.

 

[Durzel]

How much is this “free” warranty extension from Lexus though, given it is tied to a service? How much is the service going to cost? (a cost you don’t bear in the Tesla). Is there fixed price servicing available? Is the “free” warranty cost going to be baked in to the service cost?

I don’t see how the Y is a viable replacement for an X, except where people weren’t even really utilising much of the space and features in the X. It is, as said already, an overinflated 3 after all. How could you sacrifice those amazing doors?

I can’t see a 5 year old X being £35k myself. It’s possible of course, but you need to think about what it costs to get into something newer that is equivalent, in my opinion. There is also the factor of depreciation with any new car - you’d lose a lot more buying a new one than maintaining your existing one.

it sounds to me that if you could sort the warranty side of things then you’d be happy to keep it? Are there any other options available? Could you not maintain a rainy day slush fund for it?

 

[MrAliG]

Me neither, Tesla reported back in 2016 they were apparently making 30% profit on each X sold. Batteries have got cheaper, the new X is essentially the same as the old one so no real retooling needed. So even with the new X having a 30% bigger battery, I cannot see why Tesla now wants £90k+ for a new one when the entry level car in 2016 was £64k.

The profit margins on the new S/X must be close to 50% for Tesla!! Good for Tesla, but not for consumers.

Tesla used to avoid a 10% tariff by doing final assembly in Tilburg, but they have now stopped this.

On top of that the pound has weakened since the X was introduced, however they have not cut the price after the recent rebound. The X LR should probably be priced at around £85k today (£5k above a straight conversion plus VAT), and would be only £75kish if they still avoided the tariff. There is a chance that by the time the X is available the UK will have signed a new trade deal with the US and the tariffs will go.

I should get back to the original topic of this thread. Is anyone else hearing the rumours of the Y coming sooner which will give people in the UK another option. Space wise at least, a Y would probably not be a bad replacement for an S.

 

[MrAliG]

I don’t see how the Y is a viable replacement for an X, except where people weren’t even really utilising much of the space and features in the X. It is, as said already, an overinflated 3 after all.

Certainly if using the 7 seats it is not (I know there is now a 7 seat Y option but they look very tight). We used to do a carpool with neighbours and use them every day, but they have moved. I would still much rather have an X but I could make do with a Y if it was available. It looks like it is quite a lot more spacious than a 3 from what I can see.

I do think once the EQS SUV is available this will be a very viable alternative to an X, especially considering the current high-rise of the X. Also maybe the next XC90, I don't like the current one.

I can’t see a 5 year old X being £35k myself. It’s possible of course, but you need to think about what it costs to get into something newer that is equivalent, in my opinion. There is also the factor of depreciation with any new car - you’d lose a lot more buying a new one than maintaining your existing one.

The value of my X has increased £6k since February when it was only just over 3 years old. I suspect it won't lose any value this year due to the lack of alternatives. At some point in 2022 when people can start ordering the facelifts models you will lose this 10% value bump the S and X have had as well as the normal depreciation. I might be a bit low at £35, it would probably be closer to £40k, as you say 40% of the new price, not what I paid. However, there is also a decent chance the new price gets cut at some point. Still there is a good chance that over the first 4 years I have lost £7-8k a year, but in year 5 I lose £15k plus the cost of a warranty.

Normally I like to keep a car 3-4 years. I have run the numbers a few times and the high depreciation on a new car argument is not as clear cut as it seems. For a car that loses 50% of its value over the first three years, buying used or keeping it longer is the way to go. The depreciation in years 3-6 is a lot lower than years 0-3. For cars that depreciate a lot more slowly, say worth 65% of the new value at 3 years, the saving is much smaller. There will still be a saving, but you are driving an older car to achieve it and have the risk of out of warranty repairs. Indeed I cannot understand why people buy used cars so close to the price of a new one. I notice that the predicted three year value on a Taycan is 77% of the new price. Dropping £80k on a three year old one would be crazy if you ask me.

it sounds to me that if you could sort the warranty side of things then you’d be happy to keep it? Are there any other options available? Could you not maintain a rainy day slush fund for it?

I could but it is an extra cost and hassle. My car has had a couple of thousand of warranty repairs in the last six months. The last time I kept a car out of warranty and bought an extended warranty, the one thing that went wrong was a light and of course not covered. Thus I was out the cost of the light and the warranty.

How could you sacrifice those amazing doors?

I agree, there is pretty much nothing as cool as a Model X to replace it, hence my frustration.

 

[gangzoom]

Still there is a good chance that over the first 4 years I have lost £7-8k a year, but in year 5 I lose £15k plus the cost of a warranty.

Does that actually really matter? If the 'worst' case situation occurred does the potential of having £7k less in your bank account actually make any difference to you or your family?

Every car you have listed I would say is at best a sideways move from a X and worst a significant down grade.

If you want a change go for it, but I would say stop worrying about future unknown depreciation, and just enjoy the fact you already have one of the best, if not the best family cars ever.

If nothing else the last 18 months have shown me the utter pointless of worrying about ££££. If you have an X already than you are already in the privileged position of wealth most people would envy.

Enjoy what you have now rather than worry about a potential difference of £7k in the bank.........As I tell my wife, family is the most important thing these days.....Though can you spot the two of the 3 most important members of our family in the photo? My wife isn't in the photo

 

[MrAliG]

Does that actually really matter? If the 'worst' case situation occurred does the potential of having £7k less in your bank account actually make any difference to you or your family?

You are absolutely right, I usually do a spreadsheet of alternatives then buy the car I wanted anyway. It is just nice to know that the decision is not crazy.

I think though the issue here is that the car I want is not a 5 year old Model X and Tesla have created quite an annoying situation. I put a very high value on a lack of hassle and if I had a Lexus I probably wouldn't worry about having it for an extra year, but not a Tesla. We did test drive a RX350 a few years ago, it was like driving a sofa.

 

[gangzoom]

if I had a Lexus I probably wouldn't worry about having it for an extra year, but not a Tesla.

Your 100% right on Lexus, the difference in reliability between our Lexus and Tesla is like night and day, I'm amazed some people on here are even suggesting Tesla is any where near Lexus interms of build quality and reliability, its like comparing the work of 6th former bodging something in technology class to make it work just long enough to pass the exam versus well, Lexus.

But for me any ways I've realised I don't really care that much about reliability, after owning a BMW and now Tesla perhaps I should make my next car an JLR product just to really get the full replication of the British Leyland experience

 

[Durzel]

You are absolutely right, I usually do a spreadsheet of alternatives then buy the car I wanted anyway. It is just nice to know that the decision is not crazy.

I think though the issue here is that the car I want is not a 5 year old Model X and Tesla have created quite an annoying situation. I put a very high value on a lack of hassle and if I had a Lexus I probably wouldn't worry about having it for an extra year, but not a Tesla. We did test drive a RX350 a few years ago, it was like driving a sofa.

Could you not trade in your X for a newer one that still has warranty? Won’t be cheap but might be an option?

 

[gangzoom]

Could you not trade in your X for a newer one that still has warranty? Won’t be cheap but might be an option?

To make that worth while after factoring the hassle of selling and than buying you need to be looking at a 2019 car, so the warranty will last till 2023, where as a 2018 car will be out of warranty by next year.

The cheapest 2019 X on Autotrader is just under £90k, so you are looking at spending £35-40k for getting an extra 18 months warranty on the same car.

Anyone worried about deprecation on a £50k 4 year old will have a heart attack worrying about deprecation on essentially the same car but costing £90k!!

Add in the 'unknown' of what work has been already and loss of anything like 'free for life' Supercharging/Premium connectivity. It probably makes almost as much sense just to pay the £20k Tesla wants to upgrade the battery, if extra range is the draw.

Financially a used iPace for sub £40k is probably most deprecation resistant, but there is a reason why they have dropped in price like a stone......

Our X has had both front control arms done, new front drive shafts, both passenger + drivers door motors/latches replaced, latest FWD latches fitted all under warranty. So actually the only stuff left to go wrong is HVAC system which is covered in the extended warranty, and air suspension which isn't.

I can actually see Tesla increase S/X prices even more to really milk the margins, as they clearly don't the volume as the 3/Y is the bread & butter these days.

 

[UrbanSplash]

Yes if people will pay £91k (!) for an X, why not £95k?

I also think people are in for a shock when they see pricing for the Y when it finally turns up in the UK.

 

[Durzel]

Yes if people will pay £91k (!) for an X, why not £95k?

I also think people are in for a shock when they see pricing for the Y when it finally turns up in the UK.

I do too. It has consistently been going up in price in the States.

@gangzoom good points well made.

 

[Mrklaw]

sell and temporarily lease a buffer car?

 

[MrAliG]

I do too. It has consistently been going up in price in the States.

You were spot on there as the LRs have gone up $5k today. I guess the UK price looks more correct now.

I might place a Model X order in case they try putting the price up here. I had thought it would actually fall over the next couple of years and there is a chance that we do a trade deal with the US and lose the import tariff.

I had a look at the Rivian website and the Model X LR is now $20k more expensive than the Rivian R1S. They have also announced they will be coming to Europe in 2022. This seems like an enormous premium for the Model X.

I would like to see the price of the EQS for comparison but it is still not available.

sell and temporarily lease a buffer car?

I have spoken to my wife and we could take a Model Y as a buffer car. Maybe we'd even like it and just keep it. There are clearly rumours of the Model Y coming soon to the UK soon with RHD availability in Hong Kong.

Of course price increases help depreciation for existing owners, so I look pretty good versus the £80k I paid, I got a £6k discount which I think was due to showing interest before the drop in the Pound and the big UK price increase. No one at Tesla actually knew why I got it, it just appeared. However a Model X LR with non white paint, 7 seats and EAP is now coming in at over £100k and ultimately the more a car costs the more money you can lose in depreciation.

I think anyone paying up the kind of prices being asked for late Model Xs today is crazy. They will drop like a stone when the refresh is available.

 

[gangzoom]

I might place a Model X order in case they try putting the price up here. I had thought it would actually fall over the next couple of years and there is a chance that we do a trade deal with the US and lose the import tariff.

Tesla is playing mind games, its the Y they are actually pushing prices up for!!

Its pretty clear Tesla simply don't need to sell any S/Xs to grow, but with the 3/Y been the money maker.

European Y prices are out roughly 14% premium over the 3. So £55k for a LR Y and £68K for a performance version.

Bare in mind our X cost 'just' £71k in 2016 when battery prices were substantially higher, and the X is far more complex to build.

In 2016 Tesla claimed a profit margin of 30% on each car sold, if ture can you imagine the profit margin of a Performance Y!!! Which is essentially a base Model 3 on stilts with a larger battery, it must be approaching 50%!!

But no one will question how much a rip off the Y is if a Model X is now £100k after options, in the mind the consumer we are 'saving' £40k+ by buying a Y over a X, bargain .

Tesla are masters of this, they have been manipulating/conning customer since day 1, the pricing of the S/X is now there to push 3/Y sales. But for what ever reason our next car will still be Y or S.

 

[roadcred]

I have spoken to my wife and we could take a Model Y as a buffer car. Maybe we'd even like it and just keep it. There are clearly rumours of the Model Y coming soon to the UK soon with RHD availability in Hong Kong.

A reliable source told me that the Model Y is unlikely to grace these shores until about 12 months after the Berlin facility is up and running. Why? because the demand for the Y in Europe is huge. There are also plenty of far east markets to sell the Chinese made Y into. I dont know about the X but there is no real depreciation on the Model 3LR in the UK, I have sold 2 two to dealers, am about to get my third. I expect the Model Y will be the same. Tariffs disappearing between UK/USA will not affect the price. Car manufacturers charge what the market will stand. There are no new Teslas standing on forecourts in the UK. The price of the S/X/3/Y will only go up while we have this demand which will only increase as we near 2030