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Model X design studio is here! What to expect for Model S?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by vitaliy, Sep 1, 2015.

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Are you waiting with your Model S purchase?

  1. I'm not in the market for Model S

    12.1%
  2. No

    44.8%
  3. Yes, until Model X goodies make it to Model S

    32.8%
  4. Yes, until range is higher

    1.7%
  5. Yes, for other reasons

    8.6%
  1. MarkS22

    MarkS22 Member

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    We're all just speculating here, but I would expect any Autopilot upgrades to be minor. The reason being, the current system already uses MobileEye's EyeQ3 and the next-generation EyeQ4 won't be available for use in cars until 2018. The engineering samples aren't even ready yet. So, unless Tesla has ditched MobileEye, that's when we're going to see the next major leap. Of course, that doesn't rule out an additional camera or incremental improvements like a filter to cut down on glare that has been causing issues with lane keeping. But I'd expect those to appear on the P90D. I can't imagine the Model X having a more advanced Autopilot than the newest Model S. (If so, maybe the P90D already has some unannounced improvements coming off the line?)

    Now, where I can see improvements are features that are dedicated to the Model X and its purpose. Like 360 cameras common with SUVs, or other unique improvements for a utility vehicle verses a sedan. Maybe something cool like an LCD dimming top windshield? Or more advanced air suspension? Personally, I'd love to see a faster processor for the 17" screen.

    I don't doubt some incremental surprises... and I'd love to be wrong and see a major new feature reveal because it mean we'll all be getting better cars in the future. :)
     
  2. dow

    dow Member

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    With lane keeping not yet active on the 1.0 hardware, what would 2.0 autopilot hardware imply?

    If 2.0 hardware is necessary for already-advertised 1.0 features (such as lane keeping/autosteer) to work, then Tesla will end up having to bring thousands of Model S' back to the service centers to retrofit them to 2.0. Even trying to charge a fee to do it would be legally risky.

    If 2.0 hardware has no bearing on 1.0 autopilot features, what does it do? I doubt the answer is "more reliable lane-keeping."
     
  3. Max*

    Max* Charging

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    More reliable lane changing. The Model S can't tell if a car is approaching from the rear, in a nearby lane, at a high rate of speed. Even if you de-fisheye the fisheye, you can't see too far in the nearby lane, you need rear radar for that. I can see that being APv2 hardware. It could also lead, in the future, to automatic lane changing (though I don't know if more hardware would be required).

    With all that being said, I already stated my speculation. Model X AP = Model S AP. I can see them adding a 360 degree camera, or something, but that's not AP related.

    We'll find out in a few weeks.
     
  4. MsElectric

    MsElectric Active Member

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    No one said anything about bringing back Model S vehicles for sensor upgrades. They will remain with Ver. 1.0 sensors and I'm sure Tesla will deliver on basic autopilot capability with the Ver. 1.0 sensors in the Model S.

    What the Ver. 1.0 sensors lack is redundancy as well as breadth of coverage. Other cars with half the advertised ability of the Tesla Autopilot have more comprehensive sensor suites and I feel pretty certain that the Model X will have a more advanced sensor suite.

    - - - Updated - - -

    We'll find out soon enough :) I think a faster processor is likely given that the Model S is based on circa 2010/2011 technology and at the recent NVidia conference that Elon spoke at, the NVidia CEO spoke about how Tesla has already maxed on the CPU in the car and how they are looking for more processing power. It seems likely Tesla would install a more power CPU in their MX. The 360 degree camera would be a surprising omission as even the most basic economy SUVs are now starting to offer the feature.

    As for the Autopilot sensors, based on what Elon has said in the past, I feel chances are good that the MX will have a more advanced sensor suite. It does not mean that the Model S will need to be retrofitted or the more advanced sensor suite will be needed to deliver basic lane changing capability promised with Autopilot, but the enhanced sensor suite will offer additional and more robust capability over the version 1.0 sensors. Ver. 2.0 could only lane change when it is safe to do so while Ver. 1.0 sensors require you to ensure it is safe to change lanes...

    For comparison, look at the current sensor coverage of the Model S. It is quite lacking in coverage and range compared to other premium cars.
    Model-S-autopilot.jpg

    And then compare the sensor suite of another premium car that offers half the capability of Tesla's autopilot. Ultimately what you can enable and activate with software is only going to be limited by the robustness, range, and coverage of the sensor suite and I bet the Model X will have a more advanced sensor array.

    There are many creative things you can do with rear radar... The Mercedes S class for example, if you slam on your brakes, it actually checks the rear radar to see if there is a car behind you. If there is a car that might rear end you, the S Class might not apply full braking power. It will apply just enough braking power to prevent an accident with the car in front of you while offering the car behind you, maximum time and space to slow down and hopefully not crash into you.

    Another area is cross traffic situations when you pull into a road or back into a road where you can't see around an obstacle. A more advanced sensor array can help detect traffic you can't quite see yet and the current MS sensor suite isn't sufficient for that.
    Radar.png
     
  5. randrave

    randrave Member

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    You might be right, but I think that people are making too much from design studio renderings that are very likely rushed and intended right now for a very tiny, and committed, audience. People are studying them like they're the Zapruder film, breaking down every nuance. My only point is that I wouldn't be surprised if those renderings are not quite accurate.

    Or maybe I just find it unfathomable that Tesla could retain the ungainly and useless armrest/console setup from the Model S.....
     
  6. MorrisonHiker

    MorrisonHiker S 100D 2020.40.4

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    On a call back in February, Elon mentioned how the X was repeatedly delayed because they kept adding new features and how they plan to stay on track with the Model 3 by choosing features early on. He also teased a host of other bells and whistles that wouldn't be revealed until launch. So far, we've seen the falcon wing doors, the panoramic windshield and there's a hint about the second row seats being special but I really haven't seen any amazing "bells and whistles" announced. I believe that there are still surprises in store. Perhaps we'll get the Gentex Hybrid Full Display Mirror, 360 degree cameras, additional Autopilot 2.0 hardware or maybe even dimmable windows. Maybe none of these will be offered but these are all bells and whistles that I would consider to be actual "bells and whistles" and could be unveiled later this month. If they don't include some of these features then it could be years before the X or S have a sensor suite comparable to what is already being offered by Mercedes, Volvo, etc. Now is the launch of the new model so it makes sense to me that they should include the new hardware NOW.
     
  7. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Well-Known Member

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    What, in my above post, leads you to believe that I am complaining about anything and need to "let go" of anything? I think you may be confusing me with someone else. I bought my car in 2013 and love it. I'm simply saying that lots of folks back in 2012 went by Elon's word that there would be no major changes to the product for 3-4 years and actually the opposite happened. I was drawing a comparison between those folks back then and folks today saying that there will be no updates to the autopilot sensors for 2-3 years.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I watched that presentation and did not see what you are talking about. In fact, every time Elon has talked about the processors in the car, he has said that they are actually using only a small portion of the computing power available. I don't think we are anywhere close to maxing out the CPUs in our cars. Not only that, but the Autopilot system doesn't even use the CPU in the touch screen. It has its own CPUs and subsystems that are independent of the main display.
     
  8. Max*

    Max* Charging

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    My bad, you're right, everyone here is complaining about something, I assumed you're one of them :).
     
  9. MsElectric

    MsElectric Active Member

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    I distinctively remember that's not was asserted by the NVidia CEO at least with regards to the graphics chip in the car. Elon was right there. It was something to the effect that Tesla wanted a certain graphics processor for the Model S and how it seemed overkill for a car but already after a couple of years Tesla is desiring more processing power. Given that the Model S was based in circa 2010-2012 CPUs, it is likely they have more processing power in the Model X.

    Who knows current Model S VINs might already have updated CPUs... :wink:
     
  10. MarkS22

    MarkS22 Member

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    #70 MarkS22, Sep 4, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2015
    The nVidia chip is for the graphics display and speed of interactivity (like the media player and web browser). And yes, it's showing its age. I'd love the new cars to have a newer one and offer an upgrade path.

    It's believed the Autopilot is being handled by the MobileEye EyeQ3. (Interestingly, nVidia is looking to compete with MobileEye to handle things like pedestrian and sign detection, but it's my understanding MobileEye is doing it for Tesla now.) The next generation EyeQ4 is about two years out for production cars. That's not to say it's impossible for new or incrementally better sensors but I'd expect true Autopilot 2.0 in roughly two years. The EyeQ3 isn't being maxed out yet.

    In theory, the existing rear view camera could be integrated into Autopilot. MobileEye does everything with video, as opposed to radar, LIDAR, and ultrasonics. Based on their comments, the ideal future setup would be a cluster of three forward cameras, including at least one narrow field of view and one wide view. Their hardware will be designed to handle this type of setup. Radar would be used for redundancy. EyeQ4 can handle up to eight cameras to build a complete scene.
     
  11. Soolim

    Soolim Member

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    #71 Soolim, Sep 4, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2015
    If it helps in stall parking then it is AP related. How would self parking in a stall be with no other cars beside MS?
     
  12. yak-55

    yak-55 Member

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    #72 yak-55, Sep 4, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2015
    Sorry to have sounded overly dramatic. Certainly the speculation is all good fun, and I enjoy it too. That said, in the context of the thread title, ".... What to expect for the Model S?" I do think we are way ahead of ourselves. Some of the speculation in the thread probably refers to MX content at reveal, and for that car, I would not be surprised by a few (small) goodies ... Eg new headlights, clever seat folding, firmware/software UI (and functionality?) improvements, etc. I would be very surprised if much (if any) of that becomes available to the model S in "the next several months". Tesla will be looking forward to the III after debugging the X. Upgrades to the S will occur ever more slowly (see Roadster experience) as we go forward. One man's opinion/speculation....
     
  13. Max*

    Max* Charging

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    Self-parking was promised* on the Model S. No 360 degree camera. I'm sure it'll use the front camera and sonar sensors somehow.

    I don't have an answer to your comment, but I will say that I honestly didn't think of that scenario, and you're right if it helps with stall parking, it is part of AP, and I'll eat my words.


    *I think lots of people are putting WAYYYY too much hope into self-parking. If stall parking is going to be similar to other car manufacturers parallel parking, where you pull up, and line up the box just perfectly and then tell it to park, and it'll make the turn for you. I don't expect it to work in every situation either, just like I don't expect auto-steer to work in every situation, just like TACC doesn't work in every situation.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Tesla is continually improving. Even while they were waiting for the X to finalize engineering. Look at the Model S in recent months. 3G->LTE is one example. Windshield that allows ezpass, then doesn't allow it, then allows it is another. I'm sure there are a 100 more behind the scenes improvements we don't see.

    I wouldn't rule out the Model X improvements from rolling out into the S if they're simple enough (not like the folding seats, lol).
     
  14. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Well-Known Member

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    Well I do complain a lot, just not this one time! LOL :)
     
  15. Blurry_Eyed

    Blurry_Eyed MS Sig #267, MX Sig # 761

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  16. MarkS22

    MarkS22 Member

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    Most interesting is that, after the Falcon doors, the highlight was the dual motors. To me, this demonstrates the Model S will keep feature parity when applicable/beneficial for a sedan. Another great example of this is the Model S getting a 90kw battery (and Ludicrous) a month sooner.
     
  17. mgboyes

    mgboyes Member

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    And here is the heart of the issue: the X was going to be amazing and fantastic and revolutionary.... when it launched a year ago with autopilot, dual motors, next-gen seats etc, all of which would have made it a quantum leap beyond the summer 2014 Model S.

    But the X has been so delayed that all the cool new things that it was intended to have at launch have already been available on the S for over a year. The car we're about to see would have been "amazing" relative to a July 2014 P85, but compared to a July 2015 P90DL it's really just a people carrier.
     
  18. dow

    dow Member

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    #78 dow, Sep 5, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2015
    Yes, fingers crossed. I suspect you're right.

    Advertised 1.0 features will have to be made to work, and made to work safely. They'll be concerned about reliability as a safety issue. To the extent "more reliable lane changing" could be construed as a safety matter, and not seeing far enough in nearby lanes were making it risky enough to make a lane switch, hardware back-porting seems possible.

    That said, it may not, and I think you make a good point that they might acquit themselves of "auto lane changing" with a simple implementation in 1.0 and improve it as you describe or in other ways.

    For autonomous lane changing, I wonder how much visibility in the rear is the limiting factor, versus processing power and politics.:smile:


    Only speculating, of course... I think there is a window in which "better" and "safer" coincide - inside of which, I think they may admit defeat on their "released a year ahead of the software" 1.0 sensor package. They don't want safety incidents with 1.0 that could have been avoided in 2.0 sinking their entire investment in the technology, not to mention, their brand. They already know anything that goes wrong will be catnip to the news, and covered all out of proportion to the tens of thousands of people in the US who die of human error yearly.

    What you're saying about competitive sensor packages and systems is interesting.

    To me it's unusual if, selling the hardware so far ahead of yourself, and giving up the ability to tweak it in tandem with your software until launch, you can yet pull off your launch. So I will be impressed if Tesla can deliver 1.0 without new hardware. Maybe they can.

    For lane changing reliability in particular, I think this might be hair-raising for the safety folks, but I agree what you say could come to pass.

    Very cool. And agreed, more good examples of what would be distinctly new features that would justify new hardware.

    I would love it if they were progressing that quickly. Who can say for sure? But I end up betting it won't happen, because they're still struggling to ship their 1.0 features. If autosteer slips to 2016, it would not surprise me. Putting a new sensor suite into production, for new unreleased features, when the existing features still aren't out the door, seems wild to me. It's just intuition and rank speculation, but if we see new sensors, my first thought will be a failure to launch 1.0 on the old ones.

    Then add in the reports of private beta testing of AP on the existing hardware on open roads... And given 2.0 sensors (and the integrated system they go into) would have had to be in development since 2014 or 2013... And that excellent info on the EyeQ... I think Max is right, and the X sensors will either be the same, or not hugely different.
     
  19. gizmoboy

    gizmoboy Member

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    My big 3, in order:

    1. 360 camera
    2. Ventilated Seats
    3. Better AP Hardware

    #2 is already here in the X. Possibly all 3.

    Just a question of when it (they?) make it to the S...

    #4? USB phone integration for media playback (iPhone, specifically); Bluetooth has been hinky for me in my past few cars (though in my 24-hour test-drives in a P85D and P70D it has been very reliable).
    #5? Integrated dash-cam option
    #6? In-car WiFi Hotspot

    #1 I can get aftermarket if I have to, #3 is going to be built in or never. #4-6 all have aftermarket or workaround options already.
     
  20. Urgo

    Urgo Member

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    What's the aftermarket solution you have in mind for #4?
     

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