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Discussion in 'Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by NigelM, Feb 11, 2015.
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/Q4'14 Shareholder Letter
I misread that thread title as saying the latest timing suggested Q4 deliveries.
Glad to see a confirmation of actual deliveries in 6 months, as folks here were debating whether 'launch in Q3' signified a launch event or actual deliveries. This confirms the Hello Kitty X should be delivered to Bonnie in August.
As did I.
"in six months" = August
Color me impressed... assuming no more delays.
One would hope that with a couplefew dozen betas being 'extensively tested' as of when this letter was drafted, Tesla is confident in the timeline they are giving. Actual Model X cars are being tested, and the actual powertrain is already in customer (P85D) cars. Granted, delays are always possible. But I would read this estimate as a much firmer target than what we've had in the past, as the product tangibly exists.
The letter was very reassuring and Tesla sounds confident in their schedule. Everything fits perfectly with the timeline I wrote out in the reveal event thread.
"Shipping" also means available for Fremont pick-up!
from earnings call: "We are not going to show it until it is ready to be delivered"
Do you think he meant until it is ready to be ordered?
That is, in fact, the only reasonable interpretation.
Place your order and prepare to be surprised!
Argh. So if they are shipping in August, they might want people to start picking options about, say, May?
Dang, that will be too late. If the X design suits a particular need - well, a more of a desire my wife has (no, this is not related to the "breaking in" thread) then we'll want an X. But if it doesn't, we won't - and I could get a ~$10k discount by ordering another S before the sales tax waiver in my state expires on July 1. But it looks like they won't reveal the X until it's too late for me to make that decision. Dang.
Oh well, talk about a first-world problem...which Tesla will I buy next. (Once when my wife complained about something her students were doing, they teased her back and asked if she had a hard time picking which Tesla to drive to work that day).
So he has confirmed the X will use the same drive train as the P85D. My guess is the tow rating on it will be low maybe 3,000 pounds rather than class leading like was originally promised. I realize it will have plenty of power, but class leading to me means comparable to the Porsche Cayenne at 7,700 pounds. Unless the axles, hubs, cv's and gear drive are so overbuilt in the S that it is not a problem.
Other tidbits from the earnings call I haven't seen posted yet...
1. Huge capital expenditures currently being made for production expansion and tooling for MX.
2. Promised investors positive cash flow maybe in Q3 but certainly in Q4 even after taking capital expenses into account, per MX contribution to cash flow.
3. After initial ramp up of MX production this summer, goal is to produce 800 MX's per week in Q4, barring unforeseen setbacks.
4. The engineering for the row 2 highly sculpted seats was actually more challenging than the falcon doors! (could this mean that the row 2 seats are powered to go for and aft and also 90 degrees out so with the falcon doors, you sit down and it turns 90 degrees?)
It could be that they are overbuilt. If the car has tow/sport/insane. The tow mode could be reduced power to allow for the extra stresses on the drivetrain.
Think about how strongly it has to be built now to hurl a car that heavy down the road in just over 3 seconds and not leave drive pieces lying behind.
If they start in August, how many do you think they can deliver per month? 1K/month?
So maybe 5K Model X by the end of the year? Is it correct the first 1K are sigs?
Hmmm. I wonder if they will have a sensor in the tow hitch to prevent people from stomping on the accelerator in the Model X in insane mode leaving pieces of the trailer lying on the road...
Based upon the projection of first deliveries in August and a smooth ramp up to 800/week, I would project 7-8,000 by year end.
Just as my state considers introducing a tax waiver as of July 1st! I've never been (potentially) happier about Model X delays! :-D