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Model X Estimated Wait Times for North America

Discussion in 'Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by Paul Carter, Feb 20, 2014.

  1. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    #1 Paul Carter, Feb 20, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2014
    Wanted to take a stab on an estimated delivery model based on some data we have so far.

    Assumptions:
    • A few Signatures being delivered at the end of 2014, but more likely early 2015
    • based on "full" production of 550 a week getting achieved by June 2015 (a little later than announced to account for additional delays)
    • backlog down to 1 quarter wait by Dec 2015.
    • other markets not included in the model yet, which will likely add to the timeline.

    Delivery DateSignatures SeriesProductionNet DeliveriesWeekly Prod RateHolder RangeReservedWait Time (Months)
    Dec-14 12 - 12 3Signatures Up to 10Feb-12 34
    Jan-15 400 - 412 100Signature 10 to 400Mar-12 34
    Feb-15 600 - 1,012 150Signature Up to 1000Mar-12 35
    Mar-15 188 1,012 2,212 300Signature up to 1200May-12 34
    Apr-15 1,600 3,812 400Production 1600Oct-12 30
    May-15 2,000 5,812 500Production 3600Feb-13 27
    Jun-15 2,200 8,012 550Production 5800Dec-13 18
    Jul-15 2,200 10,212 550Production 8000Feb-14 17
    Aug-15 2,200 12,412 550Production 10200May-14 15
    Sep-15 2,200 14,612 550Production 12400Sep-14 12
    Oct-15 2,200 16,812 550Production 14600Jan-15 9
    Nov-15 2,200 19,012 550Production 16800May-15 6
    Dec-15 2,200 21,212 550Production 19000Sep-15 3
    Explanations:
    Delivery Date: Month of Delivery
    Signature Series/Production: Number of Deliveries
    Net Deliveries: Signatures + Production Deliveries
    Weekly Prod Rate: production per week
    Holder Range: Starting range of reservation number at the beginning of the delivery month
    Reserved: Date of reservation number or estimated date of reservation number (future dated from May-14 to Sep-15)
    Wait Time (Months): # of months between delivery rate and month of reservation.
     
  2. gjunky

    gjunky Waiting for the Model ☰

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    Hi Paul,
    Thank you for starting this. I hope they can ramp up production that quickly and that there won't be delays in between.

    However, they just announced that the first deliveries would be in Q1. This has meant at the end of Q1 on most of the Model S timelines which is the last few days of March which would push your entire schedule back by 3.5 months.

    I really hope it won't be the case this time and that they will surprise us with an early Q1 delivery.
     
  3. Cottonwood

    Cottonwood Roadster#433, Model S#S37

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    Nice model, but I would change the ramp up rate to be something like below. Every time you double production rate, you learn something new...I would keep the ramp up rate at 2x per month for the first several months.
    1. 5
    2. 10
    3. 20
    4. 40
    5. 80
    6. 160
    7. 300
    8. 400
    9. 500
    10. 550
    11. 550
    12. ...
     
  4. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Nice job Paul. Your reservation dates are somewhat off, which makes the wait times appear too long. I have Sig #313 and I reserved in Jan '13; that's 10 months later than you have listed.
     
  5. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    Thank-you all for the comments. And do please keep the comments coming... I'll update the model based new info, general consensus, etc..

    I tried aligning some of the early reservation dates with a guesstimates (sometimes hard to find the exact dates in the Tally). I used a few graphs that were posted to plug the unknowns using some straight lines extrapolations. So comments are appreciated to correct those (like Nigels!)
     
  6. Newscutter

    Newscutter Member

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    Placed my reservation on 9/29/13 for #6005 production.... so the wait time is even longer than it seems (and is charted).
     
  7. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    Sig 184 - That was Sept 12.

    And to think that when I rushed down to put in my deposit, I had a momentary moment of panic when I thought all the Signature reservations had been taken :)
     
  8. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Sig #27, Feb '12
     
  9. Cottonwood

    Cottonwood Roadster#433, Model S#S37

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    Sig X #87, Feb '12

    Looks like they have slipped the schedule one year after two calendar years. Below is a portion on my confirmation e-mail from Feb '12, two years ago. Typical Tesla optimism...

    Model X Res.png
     
  10. Zaxxon

    Zaxxon Member

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    Nice thread idea. Will be interesting to align the actual production against whatever our best guess ends up at. I agree that your schedule, specifically the first few months, is very aggressive. I would move the initial Sig deliveries to January or February, and tamp down the first few months' production numbers--eg 50/100/150 instead of 100/150/300. I'd love to be wrong, though!
     
  11. jdevo2004

    jdevo2004 Member

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    Your wait times chart is far too optimistic.
    I believe the Model X ramp up is going to be totally dependent on battery availability. Tesla has mentioned in the past that it wants a Model X first year output of 15,000 vehicles. They have probably secured battery production from both Panasonic and Samsung to cover this production rate. I find it highly unlikely that Tesla will be able to increase much past 15,000 Model X vehicles in its first year of production since Tesla is very focused on quality over quantity when producing new vehicles and the fact that the battery suppliers will probably not be able to keep up with demand. This means that a total of about 7-8 thousand Model X vehicles will be produced next year. The wait list is currently over 11,000 and will likely be much higher next year when production starts. Wait times are going to be very long right through 2016 as battery suppliers ramp up production and Tesla works out the bugs.
     
  12. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    2/28/13 - 2933 - General Production
    8/14/13 - 603 - Signature
     
  13. herbvdh

    herbvdh Member

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    I was speaking to someone from Tesla last week and they told me that if I placed a deposit on a Model X now delivery would be late 2015 or early 2016.
     
  14. timf

    timf Member

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    It's hard to predict how many of the reservations will turn into actual orders. If everyone does place an order, it could easily fill up all of the available 2015 production. I'm remaining optimistic that the schedule will be similar to Model S where the wait time was down to as little as 3 months by the end of 2012 despite the long reservation list. However, that was largely the result of late availability of options that left earlier reservation holders waiting, and I expect that will be less of an issue this time due to shared components with Model S.

    I'm beginning to get concerned that Model X may not even be an option for me come November 2015 when I'll be looking for my next vehicle. Even though it's my dream vehicle based on what I currently know, there's too little known about what the finished product will contain and cost with options or what more affordable hybrid alternatives may be available 2 years from now. If business continues to be successful there's a good chance I'll be able to afford one, but whether that's an investment I will want to make when the time comes remains to be seen. I have a hard time giving Tesla $5,000 to hold onto just to guarantee a spot when there's a greater likelihood I'll be asking for it back than placing an order. I'm sure there's many others in the same boat, so hopefully we find out more before it's too late.
     
  15. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    #15 Paul Carter, Apr 6, 2014
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2014
    I wanted to try and do a more detailed update based on a some new data for the model such as:

    • replies to this thread and continued research on reservation dates. (fixed some holes in the early signature and production estimates). Thanks for the replies, it really helped.
    • suggestions for weekly production rates over time
    • TM website saying new reservations would have expected delivery of Summer 2015, but still saying deliveries starting in 2014.

    Using Summer 2015 = end of September and North America reservations around 9,000 at the moment. They'll need to deliver approx. 10,200 cars by September 21, 2015 (end of Summer).

    Estimated DeliveryTotalsTotal
    Units
    ProducedWeekly
    Rate
    Model XReserved StartReserved End
    YearMonthWeekSignatureProductionUnitsYearMonthWeekRateVersionPeriodRangeWait MonthsPeriodRangeWait Months
    2014123 5 - 520141215NA SignatureFeb-12 135Feb-12 534
    2014124 10 - 1020141225NA SignatureFeb-12 635Feb-12 1035
    2014125 15 - 1520141235NA SignatureFeb-12 1135Feb-12 1635
    201511 20 - 2020141245NA SignatureFeb-12 1735Feb-12 2235
    201512 25 - 2520141255NA SignatureFeb-12 2336Feb-12 2835
    201513 35 - 3520151110NA SignatureFeb-12 2936Feb-12 3935
    201514 45 - 4520151210NA SignatureFeb-12 4036Feb-12 5035
    201521 55 - 5520151310NA SignatureFeb-12 5136Feb-12 6136
    201522 65 - 6520151410NA SignatureFeb-12 6237Feb-12 7236
    201523 85 - 8520152120NA SignatureJun-12 7333Jun-12 9332
    201524 105 - 10520152220NA SignatureJun-12 9433Jun-12 11432
    201531 125 - 12520152320NA SignatureJun-12 11533Jun-12 13533
    201532 145 - 14520152420NA SignatureJun-12 13634Jul-12 15632
    201533 185 - 18520153140NA SignatureJul-12 15732Sep-12 19730
    201534 225 - 22520153240NA SignatureSep-12 19830Nov-12 23828
    201535 265 - 26520153340NA SignatureNov-12 23928Nov-12 27928
    201541 345 - 34520153480NA SignatureNov-12 28029Jan-13 36027
    201542 425 - 42520153580NA SignatureJan-13 36127Apr-13 44124
    201543 585 - 585201541160NA SignatureJan-13 44227May-13 60223
    201544 745 - 745201542160NA SignatureMay-13 60323Sep-13 76319
    201551 905 - 905201543160NA SignatureSep-13 76419Oct-13 92418
    201552 1,065 - 1,065201544160NA SignatureOct-13 92519Nov-13 1,08518
    201553 1,200 - 1,200201551114/300NA SignatureDec-13 1,08617Mar-14 1,200*14
    201553
    186 1,386201551186/300NA ProductionFeb-12 140Feb-12 18639
    201554
    487 1,687201552300NA ProductionFeb-12 18740Feb-12 48739
    201561
    788 1,988201553300NA ProductionFeb-12 48840Feb-12 78840
    201562
    1,089 2,289201554300NA ProductionApr-12 78939Jul-12 1,08935
    201563
    1,490 2,690201561400NA ProductionJul-12 1,09035Oct-12 1,49032
    201564
    1,891 3,091201562400NA ProductionOct-12 1,49132Nov-12 1,89131
    201565
    2,292 3,492201563400NA ProductionNov-12 1,89233Dec-12 2,29231
    201571
    2,693 3,893201564400NA ProductionDec-12 2,29331Jan-13 2,69330
    201572
    3,094 4,294201565400NA ProductionJan-13 2,69430Apr-13 3,09427
    201573
    3,645 4,845201571550NA ProductionApr-13 3,09527Apr-13 3,64527
    201574
    4,196 5,396201572550NA ProductionApr-13 3,64627Jun-13 4,19625
    201581
    4,747 5,947201573550NA ProductionJun-13 4,19725Jul-13 4,74724
    201582
    5,298 6,498201574550NA ProductionJul-13 4,74825Jul-13 5,29825
    201583
    5,899 7,099201581600NA ProductionJul-13 5,29925Aug-13 5,89924
    201584
    6,500 7,700201582600NA ProductionAug-13 5,90024Oct-13 6,50022
    201585
    7,101 8,301201583600NA ProductionOct-13 6,50122Nov-13 7,10121
    201591
    7,702 8,902201584600NA ProductionOct-13 7,10223Jan-14 7,70219
    201592
    8,353 9,553201591650NA ProductionJan-14 7,70320Feb-14 8,35319
    201593
    9,004 10,204201592650NA ProductionFeb-14 8,35419Apr-14 9,00417
    201594
    9,655 10,855201593650NA ProductionApr-14 9,00517Apr-14 9,65517

    Footnotes:
    * assuming 1,200 signatures maximum to produced - the last reservation holder #1356 might be delivery # 1,200. In the first week of May they switch to the Production version.

    Summary:
    Signatures waits range from 14 to 35/36 months.
    Production waits range from 17 to 40 months.
     
  16. Solarguy

    Solarguy Member

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    Thank you for the update Paul, great work. Now all I have to do is figure out how to be patient until next Aug!!!
     
  17. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    I've been assuming that the 2014 deliveries will be Founder series, not Signature series. No way to know, of course.
     
  18. dirkhh

    dirkhh Middle-aged Member

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    Between Tesla's track record on meeting promised dates and the language used around that, lately... I'd tend to agree. Founders cars in the last week of 2014. First Sigs at some point in 1H15. First Production cars in late LATE 2015.
    But specific to the model above, I think the scenario is well researched buy WAY optimistic.
    I don't understand the justification for the jump from 160 Sig to 300 Production cars for one thing. And the rather aggressive ramp up to 650 in just 4 months.
    But as far as speculation goes, this is well done.
     
  19. Calvin.K

    Calvin.K Member

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  20. EchoDelta

    EchoDelta Member

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