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Discussion in 'Model X' started by NigelM, Feb 14, 2012.
The $40M figure must be the base price multiplied out.
Yea, I don't think 40 million is right. Or maybe it's 40 million at full price, not the 5k deposit. There's no way they have that many reservations in just a few days.
I took it to be the total reservations times an average price, e.g. >500 reservations x $80k retail = $40m in "pre-sales"
It's the future revenue. If you multiply the approximately 500 reservations by an average purchase price of $80,000. This confirms the Model X Tally is somewhat accurate.
Ah that makes sense. I was thinking they were talking they brought in 40m already which is why I posted the 1k and 8k numbers in the other thread.
You're not the only one. I thought the same.
If anyone is interested, you can look up the exact dollar amount of reservations accepted (not projected) on Tesla's Balance Sheet. Their publicly disclosed numbers match the ongoing Model S (and X) Tally . It's line item "Reservation Payments."
Yeah, but where does it say anything about $80k in that article? If it's true that Model S reservations went up 30%, then that would be 2,000 - 3,000 additional Model S presales when you consider existing world-wide presales. And consider that the huge surge in traffic to their website was in reaction to the Model X reveal (people going there to look at that model), it's not inconceivable that they did get roughly 6,000 presales (300 sig and 5300 p) for the Model X, when they gained 2,000 - 3,000 presales for a car most people were not even going to their website for in the first place.
Up 30% might mean daily sales numbers.
OK, nevermind. I found an article with much better wording.
And they even claim that Tesla is reporting that they have 500 Model X reservations. I'm now a bit skeptical then of the 30% increase in Model S reservations that came after the Model X reveal.
If they were receiving 10 reservations per day before the reveal and 13 reservations per day after the reveal, that would be a 30% increase.
IMO, Eric nailed it and that's the way I understood it:
if that's the case, that'd be a pretty pointless stat to bring up. First of all the sample size (1 day) is way too small. And secondly, if they receive on average 10 Model S reservations per day, then I'm sure they've had a few 13 reservation days in the past. So they wouldn't be able to attribute the extra 3 reservations on that particular day to the attention generated by the Model X.
But if that's been +30% every day since....it's just good marketing to put the number out there.
I spin, they spin, hey hey, we all spin! :smile:
Now that's some news!
I agree with Mycroft. These numbers are more-or-less spin. I believe (actually I know) Tesla has strong demand, financials, etc. However, these numbers are misleading 1) the $40 million is a projection based on a refundable deposit and 2) as you guys pointed out the "30%" increase doesn't tell you anything really. If Tesla was reserving Model S' at a rate of 11 per day (which is what our Tally illustrated), a 30% increase would be 3.3 reservations per day times 4 days since Model X launch is only 13.2 additional reservations.
My point is: Tesla needs to either be more specific and convey actual data (like we have $106.7 million in reservations sitting in a bank that will convert to sales as soon as we take final orders) or they need to disclose nothing. I would be shocked if the analysts did not ask them to specify the 1) $40 million number, which is something like $4.50 million of actual reservation fees collected and 2) the reservation rate.
Again, $4.5 million isn't as impressive as $40 million and 13.2 additional reservations isn't as impressive as a 30% increase. Tesla does not need to play these games.
I thought you were going in a slightly different direction: I think Tesla has an opportunity to be at the forefront of not only the ICE > EV paradigm shift, but also in how we'll be interacting with our cars. Obviously, other manufacturers have already gone down the "multi-media interface" and in-car app route, but Tesla - devoid of old-car-company-baggage - could really push forward the car as a connected, interactive computing platform.
In related news, I heard that they're making a live-action Jetsons movie.
I posted this on the tally thread, thought I would repeat it here (how do you link to posts?):
In this blog post, Franz von Holzhausen says that Tesla got 850 reservations for the Model S in about the first 30 days. At the current rate, they will have well over 2,000 reservation for Model X in its first 30 days. Way to build the brand!
That's another great parallel! At the time Microsoft was starting out, the big guys from IBM and Xerox were making dinosaur-like products and were to large and entrenched to try anything new. It's like the traditional auto makers of today; they could innovate and make really great EVs but they don't seem interested in doing so.
Does that make Talulah the (e)x-wife?