Model X - Flawed or Flawless?

[FlasherZ]

I agree that there are issues - I just take big issue when someone wants to use a super-small sample with self-selection and question-formation bias from an enthusiast forum and extrapolate that to "94% of all Model X's delivered have issues", which is what was done. Bad data is a pet peeve of mine, because it's worse than no data.

Yes, we know that 50 Model X's have experienced issues. The rest - including your guess at 40-50% - should be considered bad data.

Tesla knows its failure rate, after all it has access to the service data. I'm sure it's using that information to figure out how to improve processes. Those of you who have worked in manufacturing, launching a new product line, know that some of this is unavoidable. Anyone who thought Tesla was going to release a perfect product with zero customer-found defects - even with correcting a lot of defects in the factory and its experience with Model S - has no experience in manufacturing.

There have been a couple of items that Tesla needed to address after-the-fact on our Model X -- none have crippled the car and most are minor annoyances: FWD sensors that came loose from the door after a couple hundred miles, always sensing an obstacle; the miscalibrated door latch that didn't grab onto the front door and pull it closed until reset; the whistling triangle windows in high-wind (> 30 mph) conditions. The service center has been nothing but super-accommodating in addressing them, and it's what I expect for being a first-1000 customer. Like anything, if you want perfect, you need to shoot for version 1.1 / VINs > 5,000 / rev. B / etc.

 

[ankitmishra]

I think if this kind of poll is done for any new product launch, the results will be similar. There will always be something that is not perfect.
The early Model X have problems. Early Model S had problems too. I think people are expecting that just because Model S is so successful, any new product launched from Tesla should be perfect out of the door from the 1st unit delivered. It will take many more years and a much less hunger for innovation to achieve absence of problems.

 

[FlasherZ]

Whenever a poll here shows something overly positive.. it's cool. Show something negative? BUT NOOOOO! It's meaningless!!

We've had 50/50 polls here before. We all get the sample size it represents. Doesn't mean just dismiss it and never run a poll again.

Obviously this ("we all get the sample size it represents") isn't true, because someone here - yet again - is trying to say that because of a poll here that it means "94% of all Model X's have failed". In this case, it means 50 Model X's have had issues, that's it -- nothing more, nothing less.

Just the poll's name alone is biased: "flawed or flawless" -- that's pointed out above with a question as to how you categorize a car that now operates properly after door latch fixes.

As for a positive poll here - show me where I've said any poll here is "cool" based on positive results. Anyone trying to draw any full-population conclusions from a poll, positive or negative, on TMC is wrong, full stop, and that will be my opinion, regardless of the tone of the poll's results. Post a poll that offers "Tesla is the bestestest company in the whole wide world or not?" and show me that 92 out of 108 respondents answer yes, and I'll still tell you that it doesn't mean that 85% of the people in the world say that Tesla is the bestestest company in the whole wide world, and that the premise of the poll is BS.

I agree it doesn't mean to outright dismiss it, and I've said as such. But relying upon that data to draw a full-population conclusion is improper.

 

[ohmman]

We all get the sample size it represents.

While I agree with your post overall, I think the reason this same conversation comes up repeatedly is that some people definitely do not understand the sample represented. I think there are some delivery issues for sure, but the argument that the poll is flawed is fair as well.

Edit: ^ @FlasherZ beat me.

 

[X Fan]

ecarfan:....ronmerkord post is very logical and ultimately at the core of the issue.....this level of failures is NOT what a mfg. should deliver to the marketplace, let alone one priced at over $100K ( of course I realize that some SW folks have no issues with putting faulty SW out there.....it’s OK....just send a fix )[/QUOTE]

Any statistical will tell you that the "sample" you refer to is self-selected and not significant in any meaningful sense.

FlasherZ, given the doubts regarding statistics, let's take any statistics out of the equation. At this point, there have been roughly 1000 Model X's delivered (this number might even be high, considering that I still don't have a delivery date for my SigX VIN #484). Unless you believe people in the poll are outright lying, there are at least 50 failures there. Let's assume for the sake of argument that these 50 failures are the only ones out of all deliveries -- this still gives a failure rate of 50/1000 or 5 percent. That is pretty bad for a $140K car that has been delayed so very long "in order to make sure that everything is perfect".

Now, of course, reason dictates that these 56 respondees are not the only failures out there, so in fact the failure rate is much higher that the 5%. My guess just from following the forums and Facebook posts is the failure rate is probably in the 40-50% range. Quite unacceptable.

We are suppose to finally get delivery of our SigX soon (I hope), but at this point my wife, who is suppose to be the primary driver of the car, is quite worried about having a reliable car to drive -- this feeling for a brand new $140K car is an indication that something is very wrong.

 

[highedu]

While the intent of this thread is good, I fear polls like this will only be used by unscrupulous bloggers, shorts, and media to detract from the real picture

 

[FlasherZ]

While the intent of this thread is good, I fear polls like this will only be used by unscrupulous bloggers, shorts, and media to detract from the real picture

I really don't have a problem with it so much. Most journalists understand basic statistics. Most people are scrutinizing bloggers today. And the shorts? Meh. Not much you can do about them, just like those who play the don't pass bar.

The poll has meaningful data when you consider it in an absolute context rather than as a sample-of-population. Knowing there are 50 people who have experienced some type of issue is obviously not a perfect launch. Then again, those who expected a perfect launch of a brand new product line with industry-first capability -- whether $100k, $10k, $1k, or $100 -- were probably misguided in the first place.

 

[Drivin]

what a surprise!
People report a lot of issues and it is discounted as "well, according to some textbook, statistically that doesn't mean anything".

You are right.
There is nothing wrong.
The data means nothing.
You can only conclude that Tesla, which has reported that Elon is personally involved in QA is doing a great job...because that is what they say.
We have always been at war with Eastasia.
Left is right and right is wrong.

I don't care if the rate is 0.1% or 30% - if I spend $130k on a car, I expect it to be painted, not have scratches or rattles, have wheels aligned, doors that actually work and other things that even a $20k car will easily deliver.

 

[Drivin]

Then again, those who expected a perfect launch of a brand new product line with industry-first capability -- whether $100k, $10k, $1k, or $100 -- were probably misguided in the first place.

Oh please, people aren't misguided at all. There is a world of difference between "perfection" and expecting a $130k vehicle to have doors that work, be fully painted, not have rattles and scratches.

The failures at launch have nothing to do with industry-first capability. Most other cars have paint and wheels and parts that could rattle if not properly engineered and door panels.

Toyota managed to do that with the Lexus launch as did Nissan with the Infiniti and IIRC they dominated the reliability surveys after launch.

 

[FlasherZ]

what a surprise!
People report a lot of issues and it is discounted as "well, according to some textbook, statistically that doesn't mean anything".

No, posters here said that this poll means that 94% of all Model X's shipped have issues.

*THAT* I discount.

I don't discount that there are over 50 issues reported in this poll. That can be represented as a statistically-valid fact.

Toyota and Nissan (and Honda, with Acura) simply rebadged a car with prettier looking emblems, made them in the same factories, and shipped 'em out, just as GM (Chevy/Pontiac/Oldsmobile/Buick/Cadillac) and Ford (Ford/Mercury/Lincoln) have done for years.

 

[Drivin]

While the intent of this thread is good, I fear polls like this will only be used by unscrupulous bloggers, shorts, and media to detract from the real picture

Ok, I'll bite.
What is the "real picture"?

Sure, there is the marketing blah blah blah about saving the world but after several years of delay, the best they can do is ship a $100k+ product that has some serious QA issues. If they can't put out a $100k product, how could they ever create a $30k product that helps them get to the blah blah blah of saving the world?

 

[FlasherZ]

Sure, there is the marketing blah blah blah about saving the world but after several years of delay, the best they can do is ship a $100k+ product that has some serious QA issues. If they can't put out a $100k product, how could they ever create a $30k product that helps them get to the blah blah blah of saving the world?

Real simple: After a few months, Model S was shipping pretty flawlessly. This thread is all about high expectations that a brand new product line at first customer ship with industry-first features be launched with impossibly-high standards for low numbers of customer-found defects. And that just doesn't happen, whether $100, $1000, $10,000, $100,000, or even $1,000,000. Model S was at roughly the same price point (of course, without the new dual-motor that came later) at the time of launch and had many of the same quality limitations. It was also delivered late and after some delay. I know this because I am a Signature Model S and Signature Model X owner and have lived through both launches. Tesla flew a service manager to my home from California for 2 days to address issues on my Model S and yet it still needed to be brought to Chicago to rework a few things. I wasn't angry - I chalked it up to being an early adopter of a brand new product line.

My best to you all who expected perfection. May you go on to found your own companies and have perfect launches.

 

[PeterK]

I think if this kind of poll is done for any new product launch, the results will be similar. There will always be something that is not perfect.
The early Model X have problems. Early Model S had problems too. I think people are expecting that just because Model S is so successful, any new product launched from Tesla should be perfect out of the door from the 1st unit delivered. It will take many more years and a much less hunger for innovation to achieve absence of problems.

I don't think that will ever happen. Even the majors that have been in business for 100 years have problems when new models or major updates are introduced. I think this is why Tesla is giving employees and current owners (and California) priority on the Model 3 deliveries, so that they can be addressed while in relatively friendly/experienced hands, close to the factory.

 

[K-MTG]

While the intent of this thread is good, I fear polls like this will only be used by unscrupulous bloggers, shorts, and media to detract from the real picture

Tesla responds to criticism, such as consumer reports with the Model S. I would assume, if the word goes out that the X has build quality issues it would possibly lead to Tesla to increase build quality as it did with the Model S.

On the other hand, it can possibly lead to a lower resell value.

However, I followed Tesla when the S first came out and didn't see that many negative post as I do with the X. Most build quality issues with the S came later, after 50k miles or so. I wonder what the X would be like after 50k miles, this makes me worried...

 

[FlasherZ]

However, I followed Tesla when the S first came out and didn't see that many negative post as I do with the X. Most build quality issues with the S came later, after 50k miles or so. I wonder what the X would be like after 50k miles, this makes me worried...

You might want to go back in the archives, to October-December, 2012, especially during the end-of-year rush to get them out the door.

 

[K-MTG]

On the bright side, 20 owners reported no problem. Hopefully, the people responding to the poll are legit (not Tesla employees). I wonder if this poll can be integrated into ModelX tracker for more legitimate and accurate feedback.

 

[K-MTG]

You might want to go back in the archives, to October-December, 2012, especially during the end-of-year rush to get them out the door.

My delivery is scheduled for mid-April, should I delay? If I finance using Tesla, they will buy back the car at a decent value so resell value shouldn't be to bad...right?

 

[ankitmishra]

Tesla doesn't needs anyone to tell it that it's car has issues. It's a great young company and it must be watching over the problems owners are reporting in service centers. It's goal for continuous improvement is independent of media or anything else.
Edit: In no way I am disqualifying this poll or its importance.
@PeterK
Yes. People are comparing Model X with other $100000 cars. They seem to overlook the fact that none of those cars have never before seen features. If they have normal doors and other stuff, there is not much that can go wrong.

 

[PeterK]

Tesla doesn't needs anyone to tell it that it's car has issues. It's a great young company and it must be watching over the problems owners are reporting in service centers. It's goal for continuous improvement is independent of media or anything else.
Edit: In no way I am disqualifying this poll or its importance.
@PeterK
Yes. People are comparing Model X with other $100000 cars. They seem to overlook the fact that none of those cars have never before seen features. If they have normal doors and other stuff, there is not much that can go wrong.

I agree, and not to be overlooked is the fact that Tesla is growing at 50% plus per year. So in addition to innovation/engineering and new production process issues, they face basic issues of manufacturing line employee hiring and training quality - same for quality inspectors and Service Center employees.

I'm not dismissing the issues, nor excusing them. They will and have happened, but Tesla needs to get their act together. My X is now being inspected at the local showroom/service center prior to scheduled pickup on Friday. I'm hoping there are few issues to catch and that they catch and address them.

 

[FlasherZ]

My delivery is scheduled for mid-April, should I delay? If I finance using Tesla, they will buy back the car at a decent value so resell value shouldn't be to bad...right?

I have a Signature Model S car that fits me like a glove. After 73,000 miles I still *love* to drive it - that's never happened past 10,000 miles with any other car I've owned. It did have its issues at first (including a rather spectacular failure of the battery pack contactors that resulted in a newly-refurbished pack), but Tesla has always done right to resolve the issues. The customer service I've received is nothing short of spectacular.

I think by April you'll be just fine. Things iterate very fast; for example, that "FWD sensors won't stay stuck to the body" problem that I had? They already have a new design they're using to eliminate that.

You may have a few things you have to deal with at the service center, but I have faith you'll get phenomenal service, you'll love the car.