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Model X giveaway sleight of hand?

Discussion in 'Model X' started by henderrj, Aug 15, 2015.

  1. henderrj

    henderrj Member

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    Point one – I am an indefatigable Tesla aficionado.

    Point two – I think perhaps Tesla pulled off an illusion that would have made David Copperfield proud.

    When the credit program was first announced I was somewhat taken aback. And, as much as we all want to see Bjorn get his Model X, was this really necessary?

    · Tesla does not lack for sales.
    · Tesla has sold out (at least) the next six months of Model X production.
    · Tesla can’t even keep up with Model S orders, and that vehicle will celebrate its fourth birthday next year.
    · Elon promised the X configurator would be available in July.

    Instead we got a promotion with three free Model X Founder’s series to be given away.

    So is it an inescapable conclusion that Tesla deftly distracted us all and is going to delay the X launch another month or two?
    Was the new stock offering rushed in order to come before the results of the illusion became obvious (and thus insure significantly more funds for growth than might be the case)?

    Let’s face it – we love Elon, but this smacks of perfectionism in the X. Who could blame him? He has promised to ease up on the Model 3 so this might be his last chance until the new Roadster. And, truth be told, the X is more his baby than the S, so he would tinker even more. And don’t we all want a perfect Model X?

    So, what do we all think?

    Thoughts?

    (Of course, if the configurator goes on-line next week, then I am, thankfully, wrong.)
     
  2. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    I think you're really reading a lot into the referral program.
     
  3. FlasherZ

    FlasherZ Sig Model S + Sig Model X + Model 3 Resv

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    As much as I have concerns about the referral program (personally I feel dirty even bringing it up to people), I don't think it's to mask a delay of Model X.
     
  4. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

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    There may well be an X delay; but whether there is or not, I suspect this S referral program is more about keeping S sales up until X production ramps up. A lot of people are going to want to hold off on buying an S until the X is announced, and then until they see one in person, etc. There may also soon be a flood of used S on the market as people get their X; Tesla wants people to keep buying new S rather than just scarf up the old ones they already sold. (It's not zero-sum as less interest in the used ones drives their prices down which brings in a new group of buyers; so more cars get sold overall).

    Tesla had been production constrained, but they have ramped up considerably and now it looks like they are keeping up with demand really well. Once the X is ramped they are going to be building considerably faster; the X offering will obviously expand demand but once we're over the initial backlog I'm not sure by as much as total production will increase. They do have to keep finding buyers, and the pool of people that can afford an S, have heard of it, need a car now, and are willing to take a chance on something newfangled is only so big.

    Of course, all speculation. Real numbers are hard to come by. Impossible in some cases - who knows what percentage of buyers will want S vs X.
     
  5. eloder

    eloder Member

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    This has been discussed extensively in the investor's forum, though some of the most salient points are as follows: it's a great tool to counter the Osborne effect (people not buying Model S to see what the Model X might have in store), they're heavily ramping up production and so current demand may not be enough, it only applies to the Model S for new sales and not Model X reservations, and it's something Musk has done many times before. A similar sort of referral story helped explode Paypal in growth, and--something most people don't even know about--this is the third such Tesla referral program done since their inception.
     
  6. Electric700

    Electric700 Member

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    What about a Tesla truck after the Model 3? I think we really need a 100% electric truck, maybe even with a 450 mile range. The new Roadster can come after the truck :smile:.
     
  7. wk057

    wk057 Senior Tinkerer

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    Personally I've simply assumed the referral program is more evidence of what many have suspected all along: That demand simply isn't what Tesla is making it out to be.
     
  8. Dwdnjck

    Dwdnjck Member

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    This is a test; it's only a test.
     
  9. Adm

    Adm Active Member

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    Tesla used to be production constrained. Now they have a second production line those days are over and that second line needs to be filled with cars. The second line can not be filled with Model X orders just yet, so Model S orders are the only way to go hence the october 30th deadline on this promotion eh sorry experiment.
     
  10. MileHighMotoring

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    Reservation numbers seem to disagree with you, don't they?
     
  11. akordz

    akordz Member

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    As evidenced by the late opening of the x configurator (I believe musk said by July?), there were unanticipated delays with the x production. The bigger problem being that musk had counted on significant x production to reach the 55k total sales goal for this year that he reported. So, he had to bump up s sales to make up the slack otherwise the company and stock price would have taken a hit. I believe that this is also why the program ends End of October. Orders placed by then will very likely be delivered by year's end and help with 2015 numbers.
     
  12. mdemetri

    mdemetri Member

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    Delay in first X deliveries: No

    Delay in ramp and volume X deliveries: Yes
     
  13. MileHighMotoring

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    I honestly don't think EM makes choices based on the stock price, only the health of the company. Which sadly are two different things thanks to the absurd secondary market system we use now where stock price is changed by shorts and futures and options instead of the company's actual output and profit. I listened to a radio program a few years ago (NPR) about how oil prices are based on these markets and virtually nothing about the price has anything to do with oil output, oil supply, or oil prospects. It's all @#$% markets manipulating everything.

    /rant

    I truly believe Elon makes decisions he feels are best for the longevity of Tesla, the best product for the customers, and not pumping the stock up.
     
  14. wk057

    wk057 Senior Tinkerer

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    Reservations are not sales, and we have no real info on reservations anyway.
     
  15. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Sheesh, seems like there are nefarious motives ascribed to every single move Tesla makes these days. For whatever reason, we're a seriously suspicious bunch.
     
  16. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    Why would you say that about us? What are you motives for doing so?:)
     
  17. Todd Burch

    Todd Burch Electron Pilot

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    I agree. The overall population of this forum has changed a lot in a few years. Now it's a lot of conspiracy theories and tin-foil hats.
     
  18. Soolim

    Soolim Member

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    Reservation number is not firm sales order.
     
  19. MileHighMotoring

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    Of course, but if all we have is reservations, and sales aren't available, that's the only data points we have.
     
  20. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Cue somebody to suggest that Tesla might be leaving gaps in the sequence of reservations numbers to artificially inflate the demand picture and maintain the stock price but they forgot to change the website which is why it says new orders for Model X available early 2016 even though Eds was right when he said that there'd only be 100 cars produced this year and the reason there's no launch date is that then the real demand would become apparent and everyone will see that 90% of the reservations were cancelled and suppliers won't make parts in such small numbers which is why senior management resigned and the company needs to introduce fees for Supercharging because they spent all their cash on Model X which nobody wants but has really cool laser lights under the body that change color as the car accelerates just like Audi although that might be illegal but is all perfectly plausible....

    Oh look, a squirrel! ;-)
     

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