Model X not being shown until delivery

[emir-t]

I read around here somewhere that the Model X second row would have turning and moving seats to make entry much more accessible. So you don't pick up the kids hurt your back or something, they move and turn for the exit? Would be sort of weird and gimmicky but not weirder than Falcon wing doors I guess. Elon's "They're the best second row seats you've ever seen in any car ever" comment from yesterday's earnings call kind of also goes in that direction. I don't think he would mention just design aspects as something that would be responsible for the X's delay. ( I believe he said the falcon wing doors and the second row were the "adventures" things responsible for the delay )


However I don't think that fancy electronic moving second row seats would be the reason they'll keep the car from being shown before deliveries. I doubt that they'll hold a private event for early reservation holders, probably Elon played with the wording there as they won't show them in "auto shows" If not, there's definitely something that would cannibalise Model S demand. If there is, that cannibalisation will happen regardless since they'll reveal it with the first deliveries in the summer and then people will order like crazy and they won't have the capacity to build them.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I read around here somewhere that the Model X second row would have turning and moving seats to make entry much more accessible.

There was a thread here that contained that speculation, but I don't think there was anything to actually back up the rumor.

 

[ecarfan]

There was a thread here that contained that speculation, but I don't think there was anything to actually back up the rumor.

Definitely just a rumor, Elon has said nothing specific, but I think speculation about 90 degree rotating second row seats (the outer seats, not the middle seat) is plausible.

 

[robby]

If not, there's definitely something that would cannibalise Model S demand.

Does anybody else have theories about why Tesla is so tight-lipped about new features, even after they know said features will be in the shipped product? Cannibalization of MS demand is the only rationale that jumps to mind for me, but I'm not convinced that's the reason. Demand is off the charts for the S and Tesla is production constrained, so it's no skin off Tesla's back if some would-be S buyers opt for an X instead. Furthermore, the fact that they announced the X and have allowed people to reserve an X for 3+ years, even if they aren't pushing it on people, is evidence that they don't feel the MS market is threatened by it.

From what I can see, Tesla doesn't seem concerned about MS demand. So what other reasons would they have for delaying the MX reveal until deliveries go out?

 

[Yuri_G]

Does anybody else have theories about why Tesla is so tight-lipped about new features, even after they know said features will be in the shipped product? Cannibalization of MS demand is the only rationale that jumps to mind for me, but I'm not convinced that's the reason. Demand is off the charts for the S and Tesla is production constrained, so it's no skin off Tesla's back if some would-be S buyers opt for an X instead. Furthermore, the fact that they announced the X and have allowed people to reserve an X for 3+ years, even if they aren't pushing it on people, is evidence that they don't feel the MS market is threatened by it.

From what I can see, Tesla doesn't seem concerned about MS demand. So what other reasons would they have for delaying the MX reveal until deliveries go out?

I'd guess Tesla wants a jump on the competition. It will probably take them at least a year to implement the new features once Tesla reveals them.

 

[NigelM]

Tesla will reveal the X when it's completely ready. There's a big difference to say you won't see it till its's delivered and this will avoid another D debacle where seats/firmware etc had to come later and folks got frustrated. Makes sense to me.

There will be a reveal when the product is ready to go into production, maybe with a surprise, but that is when we will see it.

 

[bonnie]

Tesla will reveal the X when it's completely ready. There's a big difference to say you won't see it till its's delivered and this will avoid another D debacle where seats/firmware etc had to come later and folks got frustrated. Makes sense to me.

There will be a reveal when the product is ready to go into production, maybe with a surprise, but that is when we will see it.

Makes sense to me, too. After the kerfuffle with the D, why would they show it any earlier?

(Kerfuffle. Love that word. Thanks for giving me an excuse to use it.)

 

[apacheguy]

Tesla will reveal the X when it's completely ready. There's a big difference to say you won't see it till its's delivered and this will avoid another D debacle where seats/firmware etc had to come later and folks got frustrated. Makes sense to me.

I assume you are talking about the torque sleep firmware update? I'm not sure I see the connection to revealing a beta of an upcoming product. The D was already in customers' hands when that issue surfaced, but had nothing to do with the unveiling event in Hawthorne. I don't see anything different with how they would be providing a sneak peek at the MX.

 

[NigelM]

I assume you are talking about the torque sleep firmware update? I'm not sure I see the connection to revealing a beta of an upcoming product. The D was already in customers' hands when that issue surfaced, but had nothing to do with the unveiling event in Hawthorne. I don't see anything different with how they would be providing a sneak peek at the MX.

There won't be a "sneak peek" until the product is ready for delivery. That doesn't mean you'll have to configure and pay before you get to see it; it means that when the reveal comes Model X will be fully tested, signed off, parts available, finished, complete, done, R&D-guys-take-a-well-earned-vacation, production-guys-on-your-marks, these-babies-are-going-out-on-time ready.

 

[AnOutsider]

Makes sense to me, too. After the kerfuffle with the D, why would they show it any earlier?

(Kerfuffle. Love that word. Thanks for giving me an excuse to use it.)

Actually, I'm not sure it's the same. With the D it was announced out of the blue with no (real) warning. Everyone knows the Model X is coming, and I can't see any kind of angst that would come from seeing the features in the X. If anything, it could get folks excited to want one and lead to more reservations.

Unless of course there's features that won't be in the first X's and Tesla hopes to stop folks cancelling reservations because of that -- in which case we're back to angst.

 

[bonnie]

There won't be a "sneak peek" until the product is ready for delivery. That doesn't mean you'll have to configure and pay before you get to see it; it means that when the reveal comes Model X will be fully tested, signed off, parts available, finished, complete, done, R&D-guys-take-a-well-earned-vacation, production-guys-on-your-marks, these-babies-are-going-out-on-time ready.

This.

 

[daveruns]

My guess is that they are looking at the 20K Model X orders and deposits and thinking that once they reveal, they will pick up many more orders. In a production limited environment, exactly how many advance orders do you want? That math is complex as people get angry when they have to wait a year or more for their car. I think the same logic applies with advertising the Model S. If advertising works and you increase sales on Model S substantially, but you are production constrained, then what is the point? I think this concern dominates much of Elon's thinking these days. Not only with prospective clients but also with Wall Street, who does not properly appreciate this issue. My guess is that he wants to be able to deliver a car within 30 days of order for Model S and Model X and that he is driving toward that objective. He views orders that can't be filled for six months or more as a liability (people are unhappy about waiting and buy something else because they need a car and then cancel the order-word gets out that xx% cancel and other prospective clients start to worry).

He is also thinking about the Model 3, where the numbers will be much higher, the math of wait times and customer needs much different, and the risks of over promising and under-delivering much higher. What happens when you show a hot Model 3 at $45k and you get 100K orders. How long before you can meet that demand.

I have now had my Model S for two years and I waited a year for it after the order. My Model X has been on order for five months and I am looking at sometime in 2016 for delivery. Just how many folks are that committed?

 

[NigelM]

....they are looking at the 20K Model X orders and deposits....
<snip>
Just how many folks are that committed?

I think you answered that question yourself.

 

[Nubo]

Actually, I'm not sure it's the same. With the D it was announced out of the blue with no (real) warning. Everyone knows the Model X is coming, and I can't see any kind of angst that would come from seeing the features in the X. If anything, it could get folks excited to want one and lead to more reservations.

I think it points back to the side-view cameras. If they are waiting for a last-minute decision from the DOT, then an early reveal would either be

1 - Show the car with conventional side mirrors. The public says "meh. What happened to the cameras"?

2 - Show the car with cameras. Six months later the DOT is still examining their belly-buttons and the car has to roll out with mirrors.

Either way, there's angst.

Sure, they could (and probably would) offer customers a free upgrade to cameras for when they're approved. But it would still be best to wait and hope for a smoother outcome.

 

[AnOutsider]

I think it points back to the side-view cameras. If they are waiting for a last-minute decision from the DOT, then an early reveal would either be

1 - Show the car with conventional side mirrors. The public says "meh. What happened to the cameras"?

2 - Show the car with cameras. Six months later the DOT is still examining their belly-buttons and the car has to roll out with mirrors.

Either way, there's angst.

Sure, they could (and probably would) offer customers a free upgrade to cameras for when they're approved. But it would still be best to wait and hope for a smoother outcome.

Yup, in that scenario, I agree. That would be the cleanest way to handle it without over promising.

 

[adiggs]

My guess is that they are looking at the 20K Model X orders and deposits and thinking that once they reveal, they will pick up many more orders. In a production limited environment, exactly how many advance orders do you want? That math is complex as people get angry when they have to wait a year or more for their car. I think the same logic applies with advertising the Model S. If advertising works and you increase sales on Model S substantially, but you are production constrained, then what is the point? I think this concern dominates much of Elon's thinking these days. Not only with prospective clients but also with Wall Street, who does not properly appreciate this issue. My guess is that he wants to be able to deliver a car within 30 days of order for Model S and Model X and that he is driving toward that objective. He views orders that can't be filled for six months or more as a liability (people are unhappy about waiting and buy something else because they need a car and then cancel the order-word gets out that xx% cancel and other prospective clients start to worry).

He is also thinking about the Model 3, where the numbers will be much higher, the math of wait times and customer needs much different, and the risks of over promising and under-delivering much higher. What happens when you show a hot Model 3 at $45k and you get 100K orders. How long before you can meet that demand.

I have now had my Model S for two years and I waited a year for it after the order. My Model X has been on order for five months and I am looking at sometime in 2016 for delivery. Just how many folks are that committed?

This.

This is, I believe, the single greatest factor in understanding Tesla that nobody really gets. There isn't a business case you can study in business school about production constrained businesses (or at least, I haven't been able to think of one). A long term (I believe 10+ years to go) production constraint changes the nature of one's business activities dramatically. But nobody has studied it before, and nobody knows what to do about it, so we just sort of ignore it and talk about what we always talk about with growing businesses - demand generation and how to keep the DEMAND for the growth continuing. When Tesla might have organic demand growth adequate to stay production constrained for an impossibly long time.

Even anti-selling products. It's .. unique.

I also believe that this is what Elon is spending his time thinking about when he's working on Tesla. The production constraint and long waits for cars, when there's no advertising or other demand generation activities going on (as defined by everybody else generally considered a competitor, and that I consider to be spectators) at Tesla, is paradigm shifting different. Not just the same old problems warmed over that everybody has to deal with.

It changes everything about how to manage the business.

 

[ConTroll]

I thought he said the "extra features" would not be revealed,not the whole car.

 

[ecarfan]

He said that Tesla would not reveal the X this year prior to the first customer deliveries and that the X had "features" that the public did not know about.

 

[MikeL]

My first scribble note from the recent earnings call says, "no show til deliver X" but the next two are classic Elon (quotes)

"I think our cars are already kind of expensive"
and
"I'm looking forward to being demand constrained. . . In the future"

 

[Trnsl8r]

Anyone not ready to buy the car undriven and unseen is not a true Tesla fan, and that's that.

(Yes, sarcasm.)