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Model X Plaid Plus

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Yep, Tesla are going to lose a ton of revenue when people choose the tri motor CT over the X long range
Sorry, I think this just isn't true. The Cybertruck can't fit seven people and it's not a "family car" any more than any other pick-up truck.

The X and Cybertruck are after two different markets, as I see it. There is a 0% chance I am buying a pickup truck with three kids. I need an X or a minivan. I have many friends with X's and none looked at a pickup truck as a viable alternative. If you need to carry oddly shaped stuff or are in construction or offroading or whatever, sure, the CT is your truck.

As for Plaid+, no, I don't think it comes to the X. None of us know. BUT, I think the new batteries do, and that's what's going to get the range above 450+ and, perhaps, a new LR+. 18 months to 450+ X range is my guess, whether Plaid+ or just the 4680s.
 
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Sorry, I think this just isn't true. The Cybertruck can't fit seven people and it's not a "family car" any more than any other pick-up truck.

The X and Cybertruck are after two different markets, as I see it. There is a 0% chance I am buying a pickup truck with three kids. I need an X or a minivan. I have many friends with X's and none looked at a pickup truck as a viable alternative. If you need to carry oddly shaped stuff or are in construction or offroading or whatever, sure, the CT is your truck.

As for Plaid+, no, I don't think it comes to the X. None of us know. BUT, I think the new batteries do, and that's what's going to get the range above 450+ and, perhaps, a new LR+. 18 months to 450+ X range is my guess, whether Plaid+ or just the 4680s.

Celebrate when X gets Plaid+, because it'd mean Tesla has lots of fat cell production that it can afford to offer it on the X.
It's on the S because that's the obvious place to offer it while the fat cells are at low volume.
 
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I'd prefer an X Long Range + with 4680 and 450 or 500 miles range, range, range. I'm sure the Cybertruck deliveries will 'push' the 4680 to the more expensive X. Looks like I'll have to wait until then.
 
Here’s what I think happened: the redesigned battery pack is a form factor that can use either type of battery cell, but, it’s a compromise with the current cells and they can’t fit as many, so the 2021 Model X/S LR and Plaid packs have *less* capacity than the earlier cars. The heat pump and other tweaks help counteract the loss of capacity, but not quite enough for the X.

Eventually there will be enough 4680 cells for the S Plaid+, then the CT, Semi, and, at some point the X Plaid+, S/X Plaid, S/X LR, Y and 3. The S and X won’t require any additional significant engineering because that’s what this refresh took care of.
 
Here’s what I think happened: the redesigned battery pack is a form factor that can use either type of battery cell, but, it’s a compromise with the current cells and they can’t fit as many, so the 2021 Model X/S LR and Plaid packs have *less* capacity than the earlier cars. The heat pump and other tweaks help counteract the loss of capacity, but not quite enough for the X.

Eventually there will be enough 4680 cells for the S Plaid+, then the CT, Semi, and, at some point the X Plaid+, S/X Plaid, S/X LR, Y and 3. The S and X won’t require any additional significant engineering because that’s what this refresh took care of.

I don't believe the form factor in the regular Plaid is using the same structural design that the Plaid+ will with the 4860 cells. It may be redesigned iteratively for 18650 cells but I don't think it's using the negative mass giga cast without modules. The whole idea of the new structural design is to allow them to pack the cells more densely so it doesn't make sense that it wouldn't be able to pack one cell less densely than the other based on the design details explained in the Battery Day presentation (see at 1:22:41 from the official YT vid for reference).

With that said, I look forward to a breakdown of each Plaid S by Sandy Munro to see how they improved and innovated.