Always a perfectly fine option. We all do that with some topics, while on other topics we may be found speculating on that horse far beyond the grave.
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Model X Price higher than announced?
- Thread starter Ingenieur
- Start date
Always a perfectly fine option. We all do that with some topics, while on other topics we may be found speculating on that horse far beyond the grave.
robby
Member
I agree with this in terms of being critical or judgmental toward Tesla, but consider my position: I need to buy my car in the next 14 months. If I can't afford the X, I can save $2500 by buying an S today and getting the Mass EV credit which will expire next year (and I'll have my car a year earlier). If I can be reasonably persuaded that the X will be beyond my budget (which seems to be the consensus here), I have a lot to gain by learning that now. AnxietyRanger has done a good job highlighting the reasons I feel I may have been too optimistic about X pricing.
Bonnie, for what it's worth as a "third party" here, I didn't infer anything negative about you from AnxietyRanger's posts and I hope you don't duck out if you have more to say. Though my take here has been different than yours your perspective has been very useful in helping me wade through this decision.
Krugerrand
Meow
Yep, I understand that situation and the reality is that the pricing is still just speculation. AR could be right, might be wrong. If it turns out you could have afforded one (for any number of reasons - a lot can happen in 14 months), then relying on someone else's speculation and guess work might end up disappointing you in the end anyway. Works both ways.
What we do know: X base price is most definitely not going be less than Model S base price. X is going to come with AWD therefore that option has to be added to the base price. There's been every indication from day one that X will cost more than S. Pricing has changed often enough on the Model S with a general tendency to rising as the months and years go along (inflation, added features and such), so that can also be reasonably expected for the X. X will be an expensive vehicle.
For what it is worth, it seems to me others here think Model X will be more expensive than I think, so if my speculation is anything to go by, mine certainly isn't the most expensive speculation.
The only part where I've agreed pretty much without qualifiers with the said consensus is that the Model S base price goes up year by year (even quarter by quarter), and eventual Model X price will be relative to that. robby says in message #8 that part is something he didn't expect, so if that is the case, I think it is pretty safe bet by anyone's standards robby should prepare for base "2015" Model X to cost more than a base "2015" Model S 85. (Years used here just to indicate rough production time, not model year.)
I have actually been one of the few who optimistically give some chance of Model X actually only being "low single-digit percentages" more expensive than a non-AWD Model S 85, so in the Model S 85D pricing range starting price-wise, instead of 5-10% more expensive than Model S 85D which seems to be the consensus. I haven't seen that speculation from anyone else in this thread, so I guess I'm pretty much alone with some strain of belief in Elon Musk's Model X pricing word. But even there, obviously, I am comparing 2015 prices of Model S and Model X, not 2012 or 2013 prices.
That said, I'm not actually betting on Model X costing around Model S 85D (or even a little less), just explained some scenarios where I think that could possibly be the case. Realistically I'm expecting Model X to be more expensive than Elon Musk optimistically has hinted to us in the past, but hoping I'm wrong of course.
The only part where I've agreed pretty much without qualifiers with the said consensus is that the Model S base price goes up year by year (even quarter by quarter), and eventual Model X price will be relative to that. robby says in message #8 that part is something he didn't expect, so if that is the case, I think it is pretty safe bet by anyone's standards robby should prepare for base "2015" Model X to cost more than a base "2015" Model S 85. (Years used here just to indicate rough production time, not model year.)
I have actually been one of the few who optimistically give some chance of Model X actually only being "low single-digit percentages" more expensive than a non-AWD Model S 85, so in the Model S 85D pricing range starting price-wise, instead of 5-10% more expensive than Model S 85D which seems to be the consensus. I haven't seen that speculation from anyone else in this thread, so I guess I'm pretty much alone with some strain of belief in Elon Musk's Model X pricing word.
But even there, obviously, I am comparing 2015 prices of Model S and Model X, not 2012 or 2013 prices.That said, I'm not actually betting on Model X costing around Model S 85D (or even a little less), just explained some scenarios where I think that could possibly be the case. Realistically I'm expecting Model X to be more expensive than Elon Musk optimistically has hinted to us in the past, but hoping I'm wrong of course.
Krugerrand
Meow
That is likely something that most car buyers have never experienced. Cars get cheaper, go on sale, get zero financing etc... Cars don't get better with age like the Model S. Added features don't come along until the vehicle is 'redesigned' once every five or so years. So, yes, I can understand a lot of people not expecting the base price to rise so soon and multiple times a year, along with changes in option packaging and such. That is wholly unique to Tesla and the Model S, X and it seems any future models. It's a brave, new car world.
I was of course referring to Elon Musk's quote from 2013, when it was already clear there would only be AWD Model X, so the present-day scenario. He spesifically mentioned low single-digit percentage increase and indeed made the price difference sound very slight overall. Here is video of it around 24:30 mark: Elon Musk: Tesla Model X Will Be AWD Only (w/video) | Inside EVs Granted, that was made to an European audience, so if the European price difference is low single-digits and the U.S. difference is around 10%, perhaps that could still count as a win.
Here is the Elon Musk quote: "The Model X price will be very similar to the Model S. It's probably going to be slightly higher starting price, because the Model X will only be offered as all wheel drive... so, low single-digit percentage more expensive..." He even goes to say the pricing is "very similar".
I don't think it is an unreasonable interpretation of Elon Musk's words to interpret that as: +"low single-digits"% more expensive than Model S non-AWD price. Frankly, that's the only way to interpret that quote.
Hence it really isn't quite as clear-cut, what they have been saying to the public. At the very least, I don't think it is just the public not listening or understanding. Even you seem to contradict this Elon Musk quote there.
I still expect the price to be significantly higher than Model S D, but that doesn't meant it would be within these PR statements. (Hopefully I'm wrong on the former.)
For what it is worth, it seems to me others here think Model X will be more expensive than I think, so if my speculation is anything to go by, mine certainly isn't the most expensive speculation.
The only part where I've agreed pretty much without qualifiers with the said consensus is that the Model S base price goes up year by year (even quarter by quarter), and eventual Model X price will be relative to that. robby says in message #8 that part is something he didn't expect, so if that is the case, I think it is pretty safe bet by anyone's standards robby should prepare for base "2015" Model X to cost more than a base "2015" Model S 85. (Years used here just to indicate rough production time, not model year.)
I have actually been one of the few who optimistically give some chance of Model X actually only being "low single-digit percentages" more expensive than a non-AWD Model S 85, so in the Model S 85D pricing range starting price-wise, instead of 5-10% more expensive than Model S 85D which seems to be the consensus. I haven't seen that speculation from anyone else in this thread, so I guess I'm pretty much alone with some strain of belief in Elon Musk's Model X pricing word.
That said, I'm not actually betting on Model X costing around Model S 85D (or even a little less), just explained some scenarios where I think that could possibly be the case. Realistically I'm expecting Model X to be more expensive than Elon Musk optimistically has hinted to us in the past, but hoping I'm wrong of course.
I missed this thread until today. Thank You Anxiety Ranger for stating what would have been my opinion based on that video from 2013. I have stated before that one of my major concerns with more delays is that the price keeps going up. Still if Tesla sticks to the "low single digit" over similarly equipped RWD Model S as stated by Musk because of the extra cost of duel motor system, I would be satisfied.
robby
Member
The more I think about this the more I feel I misjudged things early on, and we should get an S instead.
Yeah, mostly. It's not that I thought a 2015 Model X should be compared against 2013 Model S, but that I didn't expect a 2015 Model S to cost so much more than a 2012 or 2013 Model S, so my mental comparison was skewed low for the X.
The other part of the X equation that I fear I misjudged is the options, which seem more requisite for functionality than they do on the S. An S with tech but no air suspension, sound system, premium interior, dual chargers, etc. is still an S. But an X without any third row, towing or racks isn't functionally an X. So all these things I've been looking forward to -- the car Tesla is talking about -- would balloon the X in price even further. This is probably going to make me sound dumb, but when Elon initially talked about those things, I didn't even realize they'd all be add-ons.
Best case: let's say the Model X starts at $86k, the same as an S85D. Now tack on tech package, subzero, third row, towing, liftgate rack and ski attachments (or whatever the "solution" they have in mind is). Can you imagine a scenario where that comes in under six figures?
Yup, this is me. The most expensive car I've ever bought was a used Subaru than was six years old. I've always seen prices drop and I've never gone through configuration of any car, let alone a high end one. Lesson learned.
I just reserved an S, and will use the two week confirmation period to figure this out for certain.
Yeah, mostly. It's not that I thought a 2015 Model X should be compared against 2013 Model S, but that I didn't expect a 2015 Model S to cost so much more than a 2012 or 2013 Model S, so my mental comparison was skewed low for the X.
The other part of the X equation that I fear I misjudged is the options, which seem more requisite for functionality than they do on the S. An S with tech but no air suspension, sound system, premium interior, dual chargers, etc. is still an S. But an X without any third row, towing or racks isn't functionally an X. So all these things I've been looking forward to -- the car Tesla is talking about -- would balloon the X in price even further. This is probably going to make me sound dumb, but when Elon initially talked about those things, I didn't even realize they'd all be add-ons.
Best case: let's say the Model X starts at $86k, the same as an S85D. Now tack on tech package, subzero, third row, towing, liftgate rack and ski attachments (or whatever the "solution" they have in mind is). Can you imagine a scenario where that comes in under six figures?
Yup, this is me. The most expensive car I've ever bought was a used Subaru than was six years old. I've always seen prices drop and I've never gone through configuration of any car, let alone a high end one. Lesson learned.
I just reserved an S, and will use the two week confirmation period to figure this out for certain.
Krugerrand
Meow
Congratulations! Had you considered trying for a floor/sales/inventory/orphan model? Many have gotten significant savings by buying one of these lightly used vehicles.
I doubt very much you will be able to purchase an X for under $100k.
1, 85D base cost with AWD - $86,070
2. Plus Tech Package - $90,320
3. Plus 9% - $98,449 (assuming the increase is single digit)
How many people will order a X without any other options? Very very few if any.
The other factor which will affect affordability is whether the X will even have the smaller 60 kWh battery as an option. IMO doubtful.
robby
Member
I thought about it but did not bother checking because we require the dual motor drive (NE weather, lots of ski trips). Do you think there's any chance showrooms would unload D models this soon? If so I'd take one in a heartbeat, don't care at all about prior usage.
They still list it. Hard to know how much to read into that though given the frequency of their site updates. Model X | Tesla Motors
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Robby, I think whatever you decide, you'll be happy with the outcome. The S is a fantastic car with more room than a lot of SUVs. And the X will be fantastic, too.
The more years Tesla is in business, the more vehicles there will be to choose from both new and used. If you buy an S now, I suspect it will not be your last purchase from Tesla.
The more years Tesla is in business, the more vehicles there will be to choose from both new and used. If you buy an S now, I suspect it will not be your last purchase from Tesla.
Nubo
Test Mule
That's the other part of my calculus. Tesla should be in the process of driving production costs down and it indeed seems to be at the root of their long-term mission statements. I.e., start out with expensive early-adopter tech and push it towards mainstream. Model S can be had more cheaply than Roadster. Model 3 will be cheaper still. It would seem out of place to me to have a significant bump upwards with Model X and would run counter to the public story they've been trying to cultivate. Having a 2015 model too far in the opposite direction would be bad PR, imho.
I can understand the 2nd motor adding some cost. Beyond that I'd hope for some cost savings from sharing certain aspects of production. I'm still hoping for Musk's 2013 expectations to come to fruition.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I see this all as perfectly in line with his 2013 expectations. My understanding has always been that each battery platform (not car) will drive down costs. The first platform was the Roadster, the second is the Model S and the Model X, the third platform is the Model 3.
And on each battery platform, a variety of cars can be built. But within that platform, the car prices will be similar. I'd expect that someday we'll see a truck on both the 2nd platform and the 3rd platform.
The savings will be in reusing the platform and other parts for a variety of vehicles.
Krugerrand
Meow
Well, considering you didn't need a car for 14 months...right? You might be able to get a P85D floor model close to the end of 15Q1. Or, because there are currently some unhappy people, I suspect there may be the odd P85D that gets orphaned in the next little while that you might have a chance to get. It might be worth asking your local gallery/service center about.
+1 Bonnie. That's also how I understand the cost savings going forward.
robby
Member
Ah, I see what you mean. I'll investigate. I don't want to wait too long because Massachusetts' MOR-EV program is due to expire middle of next year, but I'll see what my options are within that timeframe.
My belief is that they are taking every detail to the highest attention with the X for one specific reason: high price point. I don't see Sig X's going for less than $110k. Production X's will probably start at $90k.
I have no doubt that the average sales price of the Model X will be around $100,000, but I think people are too quick to discount the importance of the base price. It carries with it implications in insurance and registration costs amongst other things. The base price has to begin with a 7 to keep it inline with both the Model S and other premium SUVs. In order to accomplish this, the 60 kWh (or some other size smaller than 85 kWh) battery will likely still need to be offered.
In making design decisions such as falcon wing doors, Tesla has burdened themselves with extra developmental and manufacturing costs. While these will have a slight impact on the price to consumers, I do not believe Tesla can pass the full incremental cost on to consumers given their lack of necessity in producing a functional vehicle. Tesla's main selling points are all-electric, practical range and high performance. All other design features are merely a bonus and should be charged comparably to other vehicles.
I also believe the Model X Performance variant will be the towing specialist. This will carry with it the added benefit of faster acceleration when not towing, but it will be geared more towards maintaining the same level of performance as the standard Model X while under load. The standard Model X will carry a lower maximum towing capacity or potentially not be tow rated at all.
In making design decisions such as falcon wing doors, Tesla has burdened themselves with extra developmental and manufacturing costs. While these will have a slight impact on the price to consumers, I do not believe Tesla can pass the full incremental cost on to consumers given their lack of necessity in producing a functional vehicle. Tesla's main selling points are all-electric, practical range and high performance. All other design features are merely a bonus and should be charged comparably to other vehicles.
I also believe the Model X Performance variant will be the towing specialist. This will carry with it the added benefit of faster acceleration when not towing, but it will be geared more towards maintaining the same level of performance as the standard Model X while under load. The standard Model X will carry a lower maximum towing capacity or potentially not be tow rated at all.
Originally I had Sig reservations for the S and the X. At the time I figured the S was about 1 year out (just about correct), and the X about 2 (wildly off target). If the latter had come to fruition, I would have had the X at a price point that met my expectations. The real problem is the huge delay in release in the X, and the extremely premature decision to begin taking reservations when they did. I am sure that Tesla is very embarassed about this whole process, and perhaps this explains why the D was announced last minute, and without the Sig option.
In X retrospect, it would have been better to make a conventional SUV available (ie without the Falcon doors) to those that needed a car more immediately, or within budget. I believe that there are additional Teslas in my future, but I doubt that I will be reserving any that far in advance. Better to have to wait a month or two for the car, once the configuration and price have gelled, vs feeling left out in the dark and getting the car only a couple of months earlier than those that had waited. Fortunately, I rolled my X deposit into the S, and I've had the joy of driving the S from the very beginning. I feel sorry that you X folks have had to wait for such a long time.
In X retrospect, it would have been better to make a conventional SUV available (ie without the Falcon doors) to those that needed a car more immediately, or within budget. I believe that there are additional Teslas in my future, but I doubt that I will be reserving any that far in advance. Better to have to wait a month or two for the car, once the configuration and price have gelled, vs feeling left out in the dark and getting the car only a couple of months earlier than those that had waited. Fortunately, I rolled my X deposit into the S, and I've had the joy of driving the S from the very beginning. I feel sorry that you X folks have had to wait for such a long time.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Glad to see the discussion and speculation producing useful results. That's what it is all about! Good points in the latest posts. Thank you.
If Model X still gets a 60 kWh starter model, add a "low single-digit percentage" to that, it might be the Model X starting price. I was mainly speculating on the 85, but good to bring up the 60 too.
If Model X still gets a 60 kWh starter model, add a "low single-digit percentage" to that, it might be the Model X starting price. I was mainly speculating on the 85, but good to bring up the 60 too.
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