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Model X Pricing (Speculation)

Discussion in 'Model X' started by AnOutsider, Jan 6, 2012.

  1. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    #1 AnOutsider, Jan 6, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2012
    We're a little over a month out from unveiling, but thought we could start speculating on price-points (we may not even get pricing in February).

    From another thread:

    So, since I think the best comparators would be the Audi A7 and the Audi Q5. I thought X will be smaller than the Q7 externally, though it's supposed to be as spacious, but in any case, once I hit Audi's site, I saw the Q5 was priced MUCH lower than the A7 (started under 40k), so let's go with the Q5 and Q7 and compare them to their similarly-sized sedans. So:

    Base A7: 59,250
    Base Q7: 46,250

    Base A5: 37,100
    Base Q5: 35,600

    And for good measure:
    Base A6: 49,900

    The common theme here is that the crossovers seem to cost LESS than their sedan counterparts (in base configuration anyway). I went into the exercise expecting the complete opposite. So then I went to Porsche:

    Base Panamera: 75,200.00
    Base Cayenne: 48,200.00

    Interesting. So with that in mind, can we assume the Model X will actually be LESS than the Model S? It would seem so, but my gut says it'll likely be more like:

    Base S: $57,400
    Base X: $65,400

    The base Cayenne Turbo (similar 4.4 0-60 as the Performance S) starts at 107k, so it's in line with the Sig Performance S. So I'd imagine Sig Performance X to be 110-115k?

    I realize this post got a bit long, but just some Friday-night musings :wink:

    *edited* forgot to add, that while the X is supposed to be as spacious as a Q7, I'm hoping for the exterior size and handling of the Q5. Q7 feels too big to me, but I guess the S is a fairly large car as well.
     
  2. bint2k

    bint2k Member

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    Hmm, never really noticed that in the world of suv's vs sedans... I guess SUV's have been targeted more to families in general, and sedans to couples/business types..
     
  3. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    This "premium cross-over" world is a tough one for pricing. The Audi Q7 maxes out at under $60k, even with all the options. The result isn't nearly as posh as the A7, though, leaving a fair bit of room upward to try to attract people who really value the extra level of luxury.

    Tesla is going to need to communicate well about the cumulative savings on gas. The A7 is bad enough (EPA 18/28), but the Q7 is far worse (16/22). Of course, the Model X won't be as aerodynamic as the Model S, so its numbers aren't going to be quite as dramatic in that department, either.
     
  4. WhiteKnight

    WhiteKnight _____ P85 #549 _____ Sig Red / Sig White

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    The diesel Q7 can take you to $70K and beyond.

    Since Tesla seems to view BMW as their main competition let's look at those:

    $47,500 Base X5 (easy to add $10,000 in options)
    $46,900 Base 5-series (easy to add $15K in options)

    The only way the Model X can be the same price as the Model S is it is offered in RWD trim. I agree with AnOutsider that most likely it will carry a premium ($5,000?) for an AWD version because they would have to add an additional motor in the front and additional hardware & software to support it.

    The highway range of the Model X will get killed if it cannot maintain a very low drag coefficient so I expect it to be very sleek and slippery looking. Maybe as simple as a Model S that has been "jacked up" in the front and "jacked up" even more in the rear. That is kind of what Honda did with the Accord Crosstour but I hate to mention that since the Crosstour was universally panned as being ugly. I guess what I'm saying is I think it will look like a cross between a car and an SUV because it kind of has to in order to keep the drag way down.
     
  5. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    they'd probably make use of the air suspension too. Some, maybe, for the offroading capability, but probably more for highway efficiency (lowering the vehicle in motion)

    Sent from my T7575 using Board Express
     
  6. domenick

    domenick Nerd

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    Might as well go out on a completely speculative limb myself.
    I'm guessing a 60 kWh X for $69,000 and an 85KwH for $79,000 with no 40 kWh option.
     
  7. jcstp

    jcstp Active Member

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    I also guess no 40kw option
     
  8. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    I'd guess a little less for each trim level, to stay competitive with BMW's X series:
    60 kWh $64,900
    85 kWh $74,900

    With the (even larger!) pano roof at $2k and AWD as $12k.
     
  9. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    I think Tesla will offer the same 40,60 & 85 kWh batteries - but the range would be a little less.

    Since X will come a year or two later - I think they will offer them for the same price as S, with AWD being an expensive option.

    I'd be very interested in X if it comes around Feb '14. More so than S. We are planning to get Ford Energi as our PHEV to replace our current CUV. Energi won't have much cargo space - so, X would be attractive (esp. if it has forward looking child seats).
     
  10. jcstp

    jcstp Active Member

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    after thought, i also think 40kw will be available!
    for all those soccer-mums!!!!!!
     
  11. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    I think it is more possible that we will see a 60KwH, a 85KwH and a 105KwH battery. With them leaning away from the 40KwH one already and discouraging its use. Or possibly a double stacked one for both yielding either 120KwH or 170KwH.
     
  12. bint2k

    bint2k Member

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    what happened to the 30k model x for the masses?
     
  13. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    That's "Blue Star", which will be on a new platform, and is being discussed over HERE. The Model X is a cross-over-like vehicle built on the same platform as the Model S.
     
  14. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    Currently, we are expecting: Model X, Convertible, new Roadster on smaller platform, Bluestar on smaller platform ($30k, 200k volume per year), in that order. About one new model per year.
     
  15. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    Since we heard that the Model S battery structure can hold more batteries than necessary for 85 kWh, I'd expect the Model X to have a 300 [email protected] version. It would be exciting news if they tried even more, but I'm not sure the time has already come.
     
  16. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    I was musing over that possibility, too, but my conclusion is that Tesla will want to standardize as much as possible. Having Model S packs at 40, 60 & 85, but Model X packs at 48, 72 & 102, might give equal ranges but will require a lot of new engineering, etc. I think Kevin H might be closer to a likely outcome, with a 120kWh pack being introduced concurrent with the Model X. Ideally, this pack would be available on Model S v2.0, as well.
     
  17. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    Or they could standardize using the 3.1Ah batteries same as the 85KwH battery in the S and use newer 4.0Ah batteries in the X for the larger pack. What would that do to the range ?
     
  18. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    #19 Norbert, Jan 9, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2012
    Using these infos:

    NCR18650A (assuming this is the current Model S battery):
    Cylindrical type | Lithium Ion Batteries | Batteries & Energy Products | Industrial Devices | Panasonic Global
    -> 11.16 Wh/cell

    4.0 Ah Cell (assuming a cell like this will be used in the future)
    Panasonic Develops High-Capacity Lithium-Ion Battery Cells That Can Power Laptops and Electric Vehicles | Headquarters News | Panasonic Global
    -> 13.6 Wh/cell

    A pack using the same number of cells as the 85 kWh pack, would be about 104 kWh, in the Model S corresponding to a range of 366 miles. (However, it would be heavier by a factor of 54/46.)
     
  19. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    Not sure Tesla wants to make costlier & costlier models. Those would have smaller & smaller target market.
     

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