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Well, according to Eds.... :tongue:
Awesome! Thanks for starting. I've been thinking a lot about this and how we can slice and dice data in coming up with a model as well for wait times and queue length from it too. With all the great knowledge and ingenuity here, I'm sure we can come up with something.Since Tesla is starting production this is a thread to discuss the speed of the rollout and other ramp up issues.
Awesome! Thanks for starting. I've been thinking a lot about this and how we can slice and dice data in coming up with a model as well for wait times and queue length from it too. With all the great knowledge and ingenuity here, I'm sure we can come up with something.
For now I hope we have a quick ramp. Good luck Tesla. Fingers crossed for you and the happy owners that you meet your goal.
Do we know how many Founders' series are in the queue? This piece from Barrons -- Tesla: The Tweets Have It - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com -- quotes Trip Chowdry (who some people don't think is a particularly reliable source) as saying:
Model X roll out will follow the typical launch path – with about 100 or so Founders Series; followed by Signature Series and then the people who pre-ordered Model X
... and you think this thread won't be full of speculation?Credit to Newb. Think that was a good idea to start over with a new thread focusing on the actual rollout instead of speculation about any delays.
... and you think this thread won't be full of speculation?
I agree that it would be good to track the actual rollout but I fear this thread is destined to be filled with rumor, innuendo and baseless speculation (occasionally degenerating into... worse).
My prediction is that the Model X will roll out! (on some schedule which will only be apparent in retrospect)
Sure, go ahead.
Speculation is integral part of our lifes and it's entertaining, too. And nobody is forced to read every thread of the forums.
|Week ending||# produced||Cumulative total|
I’m worried about the supply chain rumors and eager for any perspective on them. If Tesla really hasn’t finalized supply relationships for key components, we could be in for a very long wait. (I’m production res 2,567 and totally obsessed) But I can’t evaluate how dependable those particular rumors are. Everything else (all those robots…) makes me pretty optimistic about production ramp, but the supply chain stuff is scary.
So anyone got an angle on the actual status of their vendor relationships?
Quite a few people have done so over the years and in general the impression I got was that they went to the back of the line - so you'd move about 20 thousand spots back for the US -- add in the international orders I'd guess you'd lose something like 6 months.Anyone know what happens when a sig reservation is deferred? Does it get to move to the front of standard production queue or something else? I'm thinking a lot of people with Sig reservations will want to defer for standard middle row seats to get cargo space if the info about the sig middle row not folding flat or otherwise getting out of the way is accurate
My WAG: cut each of your numbers in half in 2015.....all sigs (US) delivered in 2015. After that better ramp. TM might hit 5,000 total produced Jan 31, 2016you asked for it.... This is a total WAG What is the WAG on reservation drop outs so we can guess when I will see our X?
Week ending # produced Cumulative total 10/2/2015 25 25 10/9/2015 25 50 10/16/2015 50 100 10/23/2015 50 150 10/30/2015 100 250 11/6/2015 100 350 11/13/2015 250 600 11/20/2015 250 850 11/27/2015 100 950 12/4/2015 250 1200 12/11/2015 500 1700 12/18/2015 750 2450 12/25/2015 500 2950 1/1/2016 500 3450 1/8/2016 750 4200 1/15/2016 1000 5200 1/22/2016 1000 6200 1/29/2016 1000 7200