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Model X Production ramp up discussion

dsm363

Roadster + Sig Model S
May 17, 2009
18,279
156
Nevada
Since Tesla is starting production this is a thread to discuss the speed of the rollout and other ramp up issues.
 

Newb

Member
May 13, 2014
432
60
Germany
Well, according to Eds.... :tongue:

:biggrin: oh no!

@dsm363: thanks for the new thread and link!

With regards to the ramp up of the X in October, I think we should pay close attention to sig and non-sig reservation holders with reservation numbers >50 reporting that they got invited to configure their cars via mytesla. If the production line and supply chain is ready to ramp up quickly in October, then Tesla should send out much more invites in the weeks ahead prior to official reveal on 29th of September.

But so far it looks like they're going to produce just a couple dozens of cars in 3-4 weeks from now, since there's little reaction to the relevant thread on invitations over there: What is the highest reservation number to get invite to configure?
 

Paul Carter

Active Member
Apr 27, 2013
1,735
510
Canada
Since Tesla is starting production this is a thread to discuss the speed of the rollout and other ramp up issues.
Awesome! Thanks for starting. I've been thinking a lot about this and how we can slice and dice data in coming up with a model as well for wait times and queue length from it too. With all the great knowledge and ingenuity here, I'm sure we can come up with something.

For now I hope we have a quick ramp. Good luck Tesla. Fingers crossed for you and the happy owners that you meet your goal.
 

KJD

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Dec 14, 2013
1,374
1,020
SLC, UT
The ramp up speed is important, but I think the customer satisfaction level is more important to Tesla.

I would be happy to see a slow steady increase in production numbers.
 

dsm363

Roadster + Sig Model S
May 17, 2009
18,279
156
Nevada
Awesome! Thanks for starting. I've been thinking a lot about this and how we can slice and dice data in coming up with a model as well for wait times and queue length from it too. With all the great knowledge and ingenuity here, I'm sure we can come up with something.

For now I hope we have a quick ramp. Good luck Tesla. Fingers crossed for you and the happy owners that you meet your goal.

Credit to Newb. Think that was a good idea to start over with a new thread focusing on the actual rollout instead of speculation about any delays.
 

Alec

Member
Aug 28, 2015
24
1
Mount Kisco, NY
I’m worried about the supply chain rumors and eager for any perspective on them. If Tesla really hasn’t finalized supply relationships for key components, we could be in for a very long wait. (I’m production res 2,567 and totally obsessed) But I can’t evaluate how dependable those particular rumors are. Everything else (all those robots…) makes me pretty optimistic about production ramp, but the supply chain stuff is scary.

So anyone got an angle on the actual status of their vendor relationships?
 

bonnie

I play a nice person on twitter.
Feb 6, 2011
16,427
9,744
Columbia River Gorge
Do we know how many Founders' series are in the queue? This piece from Barrons -- Tesla: The Tweets Have It - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com -- quotes Trip Chowdry (who some people don't think is a particularly reliable source) as saying:
Model X roll out will follow the typical launch path – with about 100 or so Founders Series; followed by Signature Series and then the people who pre-ordered Model X

Really doubt it's anywhere near 100. He's guessing. Model S was right around 34. I heard several months ago that the X Founder list was more like a dozen.
 

mspohr

Well-Known Member
Jul 27, 2014
9,926
12,037
California
Credit to Newb. Think that was a good idea to start over with a new thread focusing on the actual rollout instead of speculation about any delays.
... and you think this thread won't be full of speculation?
I agree that it would be good to track the actual rollout but I fear this thread is destined to be filled with rumor, innuendo and baseless speculation (occasionally degenerating into... worse).
My prediction is that the Model X will roll out! (on some schedule which will only be apparent in retrospect)
 

mzpolo

Member
Jan 17, 2015
220
20
Suffolk, Virginia
... and you think this thread won't be full of speculation?
I agree that it would be good to track the actual rollout but I fear this thread is destined to be filled with rumor, innuendo and baseless speculation (occasionally degenerating into... worse).
My prediction is that the Model X will roll out! (on some schedule which will only be apparent in retrospect)

Y'all know that all this is just begging me to throw in my WAG on the ramp up rates.
 

mzpolo

Member
Jan 17, 2015
220
20
Suffolk, Virginia
Sure, go ahead. :)

Speculation is integral part of our lifes and it's entertaining, too. And nobody is forced to read every thread of the forums.

you asked for it.... This is a total WAG What is the WAG on reservation drop outs so we can guess when I will see our X?
Week ending# producedCumulative total
10/2/20152525
10/9/20152550
10/16/201550100
10/23/201550150
10/30/2015100250
11/6/2015100350
11/13/2015250600
11/20/2015250850
11/27/2015100950
12/4/20152501200
12/11/20155001700
12/18/20157502450
12/25/20155002950
1/1/20165003450
1/8/20167504200
1/15/201610005200
1/22/201610006200
1/29/201610007200
 

adiggs

Active Member
Sep 25, 2012
4,840
14,284
Portland, OR
I’m worried about the supply chain rumors and eager for any perspective on them. If Tesla really hasn’t finalized supply relationships for key components, we could be in for a very long wait. (I’m production res 2,567 and totally obsessed) But I can’t evaluate how dependable those particular rumors are. Everything else (all those robots…) makes me pretty optimistic about production ramp, but the supply chain stuff is scary.

So anyone got an angle on the actual status of their vendor relationships?

I'm having a hard time giving rumors of unfinished supply chain relationships any credence at all. The only place I can kind of imagine this as being reasonably possible, with production deliveries starting in a few weeks, would be completely standard parts like tires, wheels, windshield wiper blades - parts that are made by at least 2 manufacturers to standardized specs / dimensions / etc.., where Tesla can be picking the quality and cost level among competitors, where there is plenty of volume generally available in the market, and no need for any customization for a manufacturer to bring the part to market in their vehicle.

Your "if" (if Tesla really hasn't finalized supply relationships), were it true, sounds like a months or quarters delay in meaningful car shipments. Something that might have been true a year ago ramping up for this month.

My fear level on this particular 'issue' is zero.
 

pvogel

Member
Jun 23, 2015
917
201
Santa Clara, CA
Anyone know what happens when a sig reservation is deferred? Does it get to move to the front of standard production queue or something else? I'm thinking a lot of people with Sig reservations will want to defer for standard middle row seats to get cargo space if the info about the sig middle row not folding flat or otherwise getting out of the way is accurate
 

dirkhh

Middle-aged Member
Jul 7, 2013
3,638
126
Portland, OR, USA
Anyone know what happens when a sig reservation is deferred? Does it get to move to the front of standard production queue or something else? I'm thinking a lot of people with Sig reservations will want to defer for standard middle row seats to get cargo space if the info about the sig middle row not folding flat or otherwise getting out of the way is accurate
Quite a few people have done so over the years and in general the impression I got was that they went to the back of the line - so you'd move about 20 thousand spots back for the US -- add in the international orders I'd guess you'd lose something like 6 months.
 

AlMc

'When the music is on...you gotta dance' (Go Elon)
Apr 23, 2013
7,349
15,507
Delaware
you asked for it.... This is a total WAG What is the WAG on reservation drop outs so we can guess when I will see our X?
Week ending# producedCumulative total
10/2/20152525
10/9/20152550
10/16/201550100
10/23/201550150
10/30/2015100250
11/6/2015100350
11/13/2015250600
11/20/2015250850
11/27/2015100950
12/4/20152501200
12/11/20155001700
12/18/20157502450
12/25/20155002950
1/1/20165003450
1/8/20167504200
1/15/201610005200
1/22/201610006200
1/29/201610007200
My WAG: cut each of your numbers in half in 2015.....all sigs (US) delivered in 2015. After that better ramp. TM might hit 5,000 total produced Jan 31, 2016
 

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