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Discussion in 'Model X' started by NigelM, Aug 5, 2015.
Looks like what was expected. Deliveries in Q3 and they've already made some release candidates. I think it's especially cool that they used RC Model X bodies to validate the line improvements and plan on using them to test the paint shop.
Nigel, Thanks for pulling out the Model X quotes. It makes a good summary of the shareholder letter.
It looks to me like this is good news and pretty much as expected.
I listened to part of the conference call playback up to around 17:20, and when the first non-bank questioner (asian voice) started asking factory technology questions (about Robots! Oh My!), Elon said at 17:13 -- 17:19 "..., [um 5*] we expect to do our first delivery of production Model X by the end of next month.", meaning September 30, 2015.
All this talk of supplier volume reminds me of lessons my boss (a Cost Accountant) at Stryker Endoscopy taught me, just as a data entry person ... things like not single sourcing, etc.. Definitely lots of room for educated people to help out in a factory.
* "..., [um 5*]" signifies that he had a comma, then a number (I recall ~5) of his cute authenticating "and um uh um uhs" and so forth between the comma and the quoted text, which I did not transcribe. The number of utterances of uhmish ums was about a small handful, so [means] "pretty good but not precise words follow this, and I'm trying to improve their accuracy to a reasonable level", of course, as it does with most of us.
p.s., if this is a trimodal encrypted code, I'm so f'd trying to know what that means. 3^~5~=243. One byte. Not that hard ...
I recall how Tesla delivered a small number of Founder cars in June 2012 and then none until September which I recall was about 250 units. I sure hope that the Model X ramp is much faster, and since they have so much experience with the Model S, there is good reason to believe it will be a faster ramp.
Consider that the shareholder letter said " Since production ramps rapidly late in Q4, a one-week push out of this ramp due to an issue at even a single supplier could reduce Model X production by approximately 800 units for the quarter." .... and let's work backwards assuming that the last week in December is 800 units, and assume that production increases by 50% each week, that would imply that the 4 weeks in December are currently projected to be making 237, 356, 533 and 800 Model X vehicles, for a total of 1,926 in the month of December if no parts delays. And if November is also up 50% each week, it would mean only 47, 70, 105, 158 = around 380 for all of November... with perhaps 75 in October we would be looking at under 2,500 deliveries in calendar 2015.
If they calculate with lower ramp up speed of say 20% each week which is still very high the production rate will be about this:
"According to our sources, Tesla has still not placed orders with at least three Tier One suppliers for necessary Model X components."
If you believe all the rumors, Tesla's limiting factor is going to be parts deliveries. Depending on what alternate sources they have for long lead time parts, it could be like the Model S where there's no deliveries for a couple months after delivering the first few vehicles with hand built or pilot run components while they wait for the supply chain to catch up. There's no question the factory and personnel are in place this time around to ramp production quickly. However, if they're missing any parts they can't build cars. I think the ramp is going to look more like 0>0>0>0>0>0>400>800 than 100>200>300>400>500>600>700>800.
I love the fact that Tesla has designed and built a BEV from the ground up.
I love the fact that Tesla has really pushed innovation into every single part and feature of their vehicles.
I love the fact that Tesla has designed and built a whole infrastructure to support these vehicles.
However, blaming tier-one suppliers for any delays seems disingenuous to me. If Tesla was indeed ready to build this vehicle and had all their designs and production ready to go, they could have put in their orders and given their tier-one suppliers plenty of time to produce parts. They could have stored these parts until needed. I get it that they don't want to incur additional storage costs and pay for parts they won't be using right away. I get it that it would be best to have Just-In-Time delivery and a streamlined production line, but until they get their act together, they could have operated in this fashion for a few months. In my opinion, Tesla does not yet know how to do supply-chain management well, and they probably could take a lesson or two from Tim Cook. Blaming their suppliers just seems like a childish attempt to push the blame somewhere else. Pushing the blame is not going to make any difference to how many vehicles they ship, or to their stock price or to their bottom line.
Maybe someone in the industry has a different perspective and can further enlighten me?
I really wish Elon hadn't uttered those words and took responsibility for his ship. I know this is all new to him and he is learning as he goes along, so I'm willing to cut him some slack. But hopefully he'll learn from this experience and have a more professional attitude moving forward.
I didn't take Musk's comments as blaming suppliers at all. Instead, he's hedging the projections, saying that they believe they can ramp, but snags would cause them to miss projections. This isn't about blame.
Yeah, I'm still looking for factual evidence of this so called 'blame'. Secondarily, *yawn* about the whole article. With years of the media getting even the most basic facts about Tesla wrong, I'm not taking this article any more seriously or accurate than the average Tesla article. And 'secret source' to only then go on and state certain 'high strength aluminum parts and brake lines'... Yeah, that's keeping your source secret - not.
Unless you've been a fly on the wall, none of us have any idea what's really going on. It's all just guessing, speculation and making assumptions. So, I'm going to guess, speculate and assume the Tier 1 suppliers are just pissed because Tesla has left them out of the loop that identifies them as no longer suppliers of Tesla. Afterall, there can't be any other reason for a supplier to squeal to the media. Sarcasm off.
Bold highlighting is mine.
Thanks techmaven. I guess we can agree to disagree. It seems like a set-up to me, laying the ground work for blame when they don't meet their targets. In fact, I have already reset my expectations that Tesla is not going to be producing large number of Model-X this year. If they can get surpass 1000 deliveries, I'll be impressed.
Hey, don't worry they plan to get through their backlog of 20k+ orders and still deliver new reservations in early 2016.