As we prepare to launch Model X in September, we are building more validation vehicles, executing final engineering and testing work, enabling our new manufacturing equipment and finalizing arrangements with our suppliers. We have been producing release candidate Model X bodies in our new body shop equipped with more than 500 robots as we fine-tune and validate our production processes.
We just concluded a planned one-week Fremont factory shutdown and made changes in stamping, Model S body center, drive unit production, battery module and pack production and general assembly to allow for an elevated level of production and efficiency. Since Model S and Model X will both share the general assembly line, we used the week to validate the newly installed equipment by completely building several Model X test vehicles. This month, we plan to start painting Model X in our new paint shop well before transitioning Model S painting there, to help de-risk this portion of our overall production ramp.
In Q3, we expect to produce just over 12,000 vehicles, representing a more than 60% increase from a year ago, and deliver approximately the same number of vehicles as in Q2, despite having one week of planned shutdown in Q3. This includes a small number of Model X deliveries.
In addition, the timing of the Model X production ramp and high total deliveries in Q4 create operational challenges for our delivery organization towards the end of the year. This adds complexity in predicting our delivery rate with precision.
Looking ahead to next year, we are highly confident of a steady state production and demand of 1,600 to 1,800 vehicles per week combined for Model S and Model X.
While our equipment installation and final testing of Model X is going well, there are many dependencies that could influence our Q4 production and deliveries. We are still testing the ability of many suppliers to deliver high quality production parts in quantities sufficient to meet our planned production ramp. Since production ramps rapidly late in Q4, a one-week push out of this ramp due to an issue at even a single supplier could reduce Model X production by approximately 800 units for the quarter.