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Model X sales versus other large luxury SUV's

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The X solves one huge problem: ingress and egress for passengers, whether they are 1 yo or 70 yo. It simplifies this even in tight spaces...

I get what you mean, but I don't agree. Here's how I would put it: the Model X adds some passenger ingress/egress benefits in some scenarios, while introducing a host of issues in other scenarios, including issues in some passenger ingress/egress situations. For the 70 year olds, the lack of door to support them while getting out is one issue, let alone if the doors can't fully open and you have to duck.

The thing is, aside from appearance or "image", pretty much everything the Model X falcon wings solved, could be solved with a sliding door better. The great promise of the falcon wings, improved third row access, never materialized since the production car shipped with smaller falcon wings than prototype and third-row entry still needs seat moving.

So the only thing that clearly did materialize is second-row side seat access being improved, which helps with the child seats, assuming your parking area is such that they can open enough in this scenario.

Really how many are being "forced" to modify their garages? Charging infrastructure being the exception. I haven't seen any door not being able to open issue. How widespread is this really?

There are many cases of people moving their garage door openers on TMC to accommodate the Model X. And of course there are several people whose doors still have hit some bar somewhere or, changing from software update to update, whose doors refuse to open beyond some imagined obstacle. There are many threads about this.

With regular doors, you can manually control them to open just so in many cases, but with automated, two-hinge doors you can't control them with such finesse.

I'll just add my own. I park outside and there are (usually) no cars or obstacles next to my Model X, so theoretically there should be no reason for my falcon wings to not open. Yet even in my relatively short ownership and new car (2017 built), there have already been several instances when the doors decide there is impending doom right next to my car when there is nothing there.

I don't think the doors are faulty, I have come to the conclusion they do this because they see an obstacle on the driveway earlier and remember passing that obstacle and are being overly cautious since they aren't quite sure if the obstacle is still there. (Ironically, AP2 cars have cameras in that area that are not used to help.) The result, the doors are super slow to open and need to be forced. And they are slower than regular doors even when they work well, so drops/pick-ups are somewhat slower to do in the Model X than they used to be.

There's also the situation when everyone is entering/exiting the car. Unlike with regular doors where the movement range of each door is independent of each other, as is the ingress/egress area for front and back, with falcon wings you have think about what you are doing as there is a sort of disconnect between how the front and rear doors operate. You quite easily enter and exit the front partially from the area where the falcon wing door is moving.

Usually I just stand outside or wait indoors while my rear passengers enter/exit, so as to not get pinched between the doors or risk the doors hitting each other. Similar caution with the trunk opening.

Oh and theres the doors hitting you on the head. Never had such an issue with regular doors, but I've already hit my head on the falcon wings a few times.

Simply put, with falcon wings, there seems to be always a little bit more hassle... and this is the part that I think is an obstacle in Model X adoption. Model S so beautifully did what no other recent BEV had, made a normal, versatile car that just happened to be a BEV. It plays on all the strengths of a BEV to just make this better, like increased interior and trunk space. It is not a weirdmobile. Instead of being a great SUV that just happens to be a BEV, Model X is a weirdmobile. Sure, desireable to a niche (perhaps I would not have it without the doors) and there are some positive ideas in the doors for ingress/egress, but in the end a limiting factor for wide appeal.

There is a reason why gullwings and scissor doors, at the end of the day, do not appear in mainstream, volume cars. They are fine for desireable sportsmobiles and bedroom posters, but for everyday use for the masses they are not practical. If they were, we'd seen much more rising doors in cars.

IMO, for the falcon wing concept to be worth all the sacrifices it forces upon us - beyond a halo model thinking (I mean Mercedes didn't put the gull wing doors on the SLS any more than DMC did because where were practical) - it would have to dramatically double down on the passenger ingress/eggress scenario, much more so than it does on the Model X that shipped.

If the falcon wings for example allowed access to the third-row directly without moving the second-row, that would be an obvious benefit for a people carrier. This is an area where they could be superior to the sliding door (since it is harder to slide a door out of the way) and this is why I think in a possible Tesla minibus they might even make sense, if they allow direct access to different rows.

Though even the sliding door concept could evolve, as a I drew and upwards rising and then backwards moving hinge, for some Model Y speculation on TMC... (Fictional Concept: Sliding "Falcon Wings" for Model Y)

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@AnxietyRanger: While I appreciate your opinion on the FWDs, I quite like them and think they actually are an attracter to potential buyers. 83% of current X owners agree they are an excellent design choice and I assume a factor in the purchase FWD revisited: Worth it? .

IMO I would expect more than a sliding door in a luxury SUV at the price point of the X. I was in a rental minivan with coworkers last week with automatic sliding doors and lift gate. In the week, several of us was hit by the sliding doors closing, I assume by an unintentional button push. The auto lift gate had no sensors coming down and did hit one of us in the head. In fact I tried to stop it manually. No such luck, it just powered through my attempt to stop. The doors and lift gate were twice as slow opening and closing than the X...yes, twice as slow. This was a high end Minivan as well as far as minivans go.

I would assume if Tesla decided to reinvent the sliding door concept that tried and true manufacturers could not perfect, they would design the heck out of it. But, it is so boring and mundane.

I personally like the attention the doors attract. I like to talk about the car. I have had several father and sons stop to talk about the tech. In each case the young son wanted to see the cool doors. Forgive me for liking to brag on the car when I get the opportunity.
 
@rush6410 I have obviously no problem with an opposing, well thought out opinion like yours. The more the merrier. The irony is, falcon wings were a significant factor in my own purchase too (I belong to the automotive geek camp). I don't mind the attention either (and acknowledge that attention is real, hence the car also has some halo value for Tesla), most of the time, and I get it that kids especially think they are very cool... I think they are very cool whenever I am not hating them!

But I return to my idea about a bedroom poster. Model X is great poster material. I am not sure when it comes down to it, if it is that appealing for the wider market to actually buy. Adore from a far, desire even, sure, but will they cross that final threshold? The initial early adopter market (those answering to the polls etc.) is quite different from the volume market...

We are all opining and speculating, of course, so this is not to argue your points. Just to kind of offer some more meat around mine. :)
 
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@AnxietyRanger Because we do not have kids, we rarely use the FWDs. I find myself looking for excuses to open them just to brag on the car with strangers. ;)

On a serious note, I think a lack of understanding of EV technology along with range anxiety is more of a concern to the wider market then the FWDs. I wouldn't think ppl would even have an opinion on the doors until after purchase. Again, on the surface, it even might add to the appeal to a potential buyer. Then, reality sets in after the purchase to grow fonder or frustrated with the practicality of the FWDs. I don't see the FWDs becoming a negative factor until EV becomes more main stream and the public gets over their fears of EV and range.

I appreciate the discussion. Keep your posts coming.
 
One thing you should take in to consideration then you compere sales of Model S and Model X for first quater 2017 is that the starting price differ quite a lot then Model S had 60 kWh and Model X had 75 with dual motor and smart suspension as standard. Now after the latest changes the difference in starting price have been smaller even if it's still differ a bit. Let's see how the sales is from now on, will Model S continue to sell better or will the smaller price difference make more take Model X instead?
 
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Appreciate the comments, @rush6410!

One thing you should take in to consideration then you compere sales of Model S and Model X for first quater 2017 is that the starting price differ quite a lot then Model S had 60 kWh and Model X had 75 with dual motor and smart suspension as standard. Now after the latest changes the difference in starting price have been smaller even if it's still differ a bit. Let's see how the sales is from now on, will Model S continue to sell better or will the smaller price difference make more take Model X instead?

Price is often brought up and I agree it has some effect, of course. My general tought on that, though, is the relative size of the markets. Premium SUVs are a much larger absolute market than premium sedans. So even with a higher price, Model X should be targeting a much larger audience used to paying premium prices - and yet for whatever reason, it is not flying off the shelves... while Model S is selling more than it is supposed to sell given the size of its segment...
 
With a few more months of fully ramped up data since our previous conversation, I continue to believe falcon wings (including the lack of folding 6/7 seater, lack of roof racks, usability/too different concerns, increased price etc. they are causing) are detrimental to Model X sales.

No matter how you slice it, Model X simply is not selling as well as a premium SUV on average, which is a huge market (much larger than premium sedans). And it is failing to double Tesla's sales even. On the other hand Model S is selling better than a premium sedan/hatchback should sell on average, because it appeals to a very wide audience. Model S is brilliant for what it is.

Model X is a complex weirdmobile monster and that is not appealing to the average buyer. My feelings on this have only grown since finally getting one myself in Q1. And by now I think we are beginning to have enough data on this to say it like it is.

Perhaps the falcon wings will still be able to vindicate themselves in that Tesla minibus or something, but other than that, they have been an expensive mistake. A few owners enjoying them for putting in babies does not a success make.

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Model Y moving on to the next generation is a result of Tesla cancelling a falcon wing car based on Model 3.

Just being realistic. I like that mechanical dance, but they are far from practical in so many ways - and what's more they are not perceived as practical either which hinders adoption ever more, in my view.

I don't disagree with you in full, but the fact is that Tesla might not be able to make more X then they do today even if it was more simplistic. Minus fwd but plus folding seats might be a wash in terms of manufacturing capacity. They can't make as many as they can sell today.

You can't expect the X to dominate every segment that has a large luxury SUV. I think the X does what it's intended to do, which is to help bridge Tesla from S to 3. The S has 30% share, which is nutty when you think about the competition. That is an enormous amount of success and you can't really expect it to take much more share. I see the X surpassing the S in quarterly volumes soon, but it will never get to 30% market share. The main reason being the diversity in that market with super large and smaller sporty luxury SUVs. Model X kinda fits closer to the sporty then the giant luxoyatchs. Without the X contributing gross profits, the 3 would have more difficult to finance. The 3 is the key and the X helps you get there as you don't need gigafactories to build 60,000 model S per year.
 
@rush6410But I return to my idea about a bedroom poster. Model X is great poster material. I am not sure when it comes down to it, if it is that appealing for the wider market to actually buy. Adore from a far, desire even, sure, but will they cross that final threshold? The initial early adopter market (those answering to the polls etc.) is quite different from the volume market...

You're not thinking strategic (enough). You're worried about a pawn while your opponent is putting the Queen in the perfect position. Model X was designed to be poster material. It is a dream car, celebrities own it, and click bait news sites are all over it because people are fascinated by it. All of this is a means to an end...to drive interest in the mass market 3 and elevate Tesla into fantasy status. Tesla is already the company that destroyed status quo with a compelling electric sedan. The MX takes it farther: it's ridiculous. It's the car I expected 20 years from now. First descriptor people have when they experience it: space ship.

All of this hype is advertising and brand development. Who cares if the MX isn't outselling its competition. The MX drives overall demand, brand appeal, and increases perception of Tesla's potential. After all, Tesla is valued on potential and not on cars past produced.
 
You're not thinking strategic (enough). You're worried about a pawn while your opponent is putting the Queen in the perfect position. Model X was designed to be poster material. It is a dream car, celebrities own it, and click bait news sites are all over it because people are fascinated by it. All of this is a means to an end...to drive interest in the mass market 3 and elevate Tesla into fantasy status. Tesla is already the company that destroyed status quo with a compelling electric sedan. The MX takes it farther: it's ridiculous. It's the car I expected 20 years from now. First descriptor people have when they experience it: space ship.

All of this hype is advertising and brand development. Who cares if the MX isn't outselling its competition. The MX drives overall demand, brand appeal, and increases perception of Tesla's potential. After all, Tesla is valued on potential and not on cars past produced.

I agree and the X is faring pretty well in the market even with its non-standard features. The most important stat for the Model X at this point is gross margins, which are good in part because the ASP is higher then the S and production is finally running smoothly. It is doing quite well in the market and it would be difficult for Tesla to really build that many more. Based on the recent quarterly results, it appears they have finally worked through the bulk of the backlog and now they should be able to deliver at nearly the maximum rate the production line will allow and that will not change without a lot of capex spending for new production lines, which will not happen with the 3 coming out.

It will be interesting what they do with Y, I doubt it will have FWD and will more then likely have an all glass roof like the 3. This allows to be manufactured quicker because the robots have easier access to the internals of the vehicle farther down the line. though they are talking about an entirely new platform for the Y, which may not require the same need for robotic access. For example, why cant they just build the car upside down and put in the floor/battery last? Or build them separately have them come together at the end. Battery pack and floor with motors and even seats, dashboards end everything. Then the top is built upside down and brought over and flipped and joined with the rest of the car.
 
The Model X is the car of the future that you can buy today. It's amazing how close the sales of the model x are coming to the model s even at a more premium price point. Eventually it will sell more. Not a competition, just satisfying different tastes.
 
You're not thinking strategic (enough). You're worried about a pawn while your opponent is putting the Queen in the perfect position. Model X was designed to be poster material. It is a dream car, celebrities own it, and click bait news sites are all over it because people are fascinated by it. All of this is a means to an end...to drive interest in the mass market 3 and elevate Tesla into fantasy status. Tesla is already the company that destroyed status quo with a compelling electric sedan. The MX takes it farther: it's ridiculous. It's the car I expected 20 years from now. First descriptor people have when they experience it: space ship.

All of this hype is advertising and brand development. Who cares if the MX isn't outselling its competition. The MX drives overall demand, brand appeal, and increases perception of Tesla's potential. After all, Tesla is valued on potential and not on cars past produced.
I'm not disagreeing with your assessment of the potential outcome of the Model-X, but I very much doubt that was Tesla's plan from the beginning. :) Some of it just worked out that way. Elon has said many times they were many mistakes made with the X (too complicated, too many features, etc.) and that they wouldn't ever do that again (learned their lesson and 3 will be different).

Also, Elon did say originally that the Model-Y would have FWD, but since then he said it will be on a new line and a newly designed chassis, so who knows if the FWD is still on the design table.
 
Obviously Tesla cares when Model S/X are not selling enough. There is many quarters worth of concern over that. Current one included. Demand levers being pulled like crazy.

Model 3 does not need Model X to sell well IMO. The halo in Teslas are not the trick doors. It's being electric.
 
The Model X is the car of the future that you can buy today. It's amazing how close the sales of the model x are coming to the model s even at a more premium price point. Eventually it will sell more. Not a competition, just satisfying different tastes.

We shall see.

A part of me is still thinking it's future will be more like Back to the Future.

A possible Tesla minibus excempted.
 
I love driving my computer:)

Love the Falcon Wings! Recently found that apparently my car sees ghosts and would not open the passenger side, turned the car around and it worked just fine. I have found that in some unobstructed areas the doors will open to the max, to where I have to stretch to press the close button. Other times I have the duck to get in and out. Approaching 70 (age) at light speed, I too noticed the lack of a handle to steady my entry or exit from the middle seats. I figure if I get to where I need help getting in or out of the car, my grandson will just push me in:) Speaking of my computer, the Falcon Wings are like the first CD/DVD disk players and we joked about them being coffee cup holders ~ bought it anyway:p Sliding doors are so '80s:-(

I have bought enough cars over the years to know that there will always be one more thing I could have gotten had I waited another year or so. But when the 100D came out, that was the ah-ha moment!

Two weeks ago we had a high pitched whine, and I was able to turn it off and back on and the sound would still be there. We heard it in Drive, Neutral and Reverse, but not Park. It increased in frequency in Drive and Reverse and lowed in Neutral. While it was making the sound we called the maintenance shop, the tech on the other end heard it loud and clear. Before moving anywhere, they performed a diagnostic over the air and determined it was safe to drive and saw nothing wrong. So, arranged to drive it in the next day. In the meantime we moved the car to a different location and there was no sound, but I kept my appointment the next day. Over three days they could not replicate the high pitched whine. I even made the trip with ear plugs just in case. We were told to make a video of the situation next time to aid in the diagnostic procedure. Good idea since they not only can hear the sound when moving back and forth in the driving modes, but they can see the screens which may or may not include any warnings.

Last night my wife was enroute home from an afternoon yoga instructor class, and via the Tesla app on my iPhone I was able to keep tabs on her. When she stopped for dinner I was able to tell her there was a Starbucks just up the road. When I checked later I saw that the battery icon was yellow and she was down to 31 miles. Bottom Line here boys and girls; your significant other can check your where abouts in a timely manner:mad: I texted our daughter that Mom was close to home but running on fumes (hard to update vocabulary). My daughter texted back that she was hoping that Mom had not pushed the Nuclear Option while driving so that she would get home safely:oops: I texted back that I added an option of allowing the floorboards to retract allowing both driver and front seat passenger to apply foot power:rolleyes: Bottom Line ~ she made it home safely:D

FYI ~ there is no better car ~ yet;)