Model X sales versus other large luxury SUV's

[AnxietyRanger]

Great work as usual, but I hate having to wait until the end of the quarter to get a real sense as Tesla ramps through the quarter. Could you perhaps add a quarterly projection based on the prior quarter? Since you have all the data, it should be pretty easy to include estimates, just until we have a full quarter.

Or at least show last years numbers for the on-going quarter already now. Re-design the table to show the full quarter and just fill-in the blanks as they come. That would allow us to estimate in our minds what the full quarter could be based on last year's performance. We can already see April was down a bit, May was up a bit, so June could be similar to last year, maybe up a bit...

I would recommend the table show two full quarters at a time and both this year's and last year's performance.

e.g. today the table would show:

Q1/2017
Q1/2016
and
Q2/2017 (June number empty)
Q2/2016

This would allow trend comparisons to both last year and last quarter in our minds...

 

[vigge50]

Last year tesla deliver 2145 Model X in June wish if repeated probably would make it stay in the same position as now.

 

[FlatSix911]

Interesting Global PHEV/BEV demand charts ... Global electric vehicle fleet surpasses 2 million cars

The International Energy Agency (IEA) came out with its 2017 Global EV Outlook and it highlights the fact that the world’s EV fleet reached over 2 million cars last year. It also breaks down the distribution of electric vehicles around the world by country and shows how China as solidified its position as an EV leader. They are accounting for both all-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV). The 2 million car mark was helped by a surge in China, which now not only leads electric cars but also electric two-wheelers, low-speed electric vehicles, and electric buses:

“Until 2015, the United States accounted for the largest portion of the global electric car stock. In 2016, China became the country with the largest electric car stock, with about a third of the global total. With more than 200 million electric two-wheelers, 3 to 4 million low-speed electric vehicles (LSEVs) and more than 300 thousand electric buses, China is also by far the global leader in the electrification of other transport modes.” Here are two interesting charts about the distribution of electric vehicles per country:

View attachment 230436
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This evolution of EV fleet chart is extremely encouraging for the market:

 

[hiroshiy]

@RubberToe , your images are not showing up anymore...

 

[Troy916]

@RubberToe , your images are not showing up anymore...

Saying "Please Update your account to enable 3rd party hosting"
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[Sean Wagner]

In the latest corporate news bulletin, Tesla offers an explanation why sales of the Model X haven't tracked its sibling's impressive success compared to competitors' offerings. Viz:

We also finally added a sufficient number of Model X cars to our test drive and display fleet because our stores had been operating with far short of what was needed and, in some cases, none at all. There appears to be substantial untapped sales potential for Model X. It should also be noted that production quality and field reliability of the Model X, for which Tesla has been fairly criticized, have improved dramatically. It is now rare for a newly produced Model X to have initial quality problems.

Source:
Jul 3, 2017
Tesla Q2 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries
Tesla Q2 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)

 

[nikeykid]

It should also be noted that production quality and field reliability of the Model X, for which Tesla has been fairly criticized, have improved dramatically.

got to love a company that takes responsibility! love my X but definitely had some minor issues off the line that they've fixed one by one.

 

[RubberToe]

Saying "Please Update your account to enable 3rd party hosting"
"for more importment info, please go to: www.photobucket.com/P500"

Yeah, they stabbed me for a pretty steep yearly cost billed in advance. And their "ad free" version is just as slow, and still gives me problems trying to copy page links.

RT

June sales were not up as of last night. So probably tomorrow night at the earliest for an update.

 

[RubberToe]

In the latest corporate news bulletin, Tesla offers an explanation why sales of the Model X haven't tracked its sibling's impressive success compared to competitors' offerings. Viz:

We also finally added a sufficient number of Model X cars to our test drive and display fleet because our stores had been operating with far short of what was needed and, in some cases, none at all. There appears to be substantial untapped sales potential for Model X. It should also be noted that production quality and field reliability of the Model X, for which Tesla has been fairly criticized, have improved dramatically. It is now rare for a newly produced Model X to have initial quality problems.

Source:
Jul 3, 2017
Tesla Q2 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries
Tesla Q2 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Our local store in Pasadena has 2 Model X 100s parked out back. I do a drive by on my way to work periodically hoping to see a Supercharger Station magically appear in that same lot. Perfect location for locals, shoppers, and 210 freeway travelers.

 

[Spidy]

They have 500 Inventory cars listed, how can they not have enough cars for test drives?

 

[RubberToe]

June numbers are in. The large SUV's still holding up well even though the overall U.S. sales are slipping. The Model S thread is showing some scary numbers. Be interesting to see when the SUV sales start trending down. I guess the thinking is that sedan purchasers are just moving to SUV's. I don't track sales of the smaller SUV's but did notice that the Kia Soul small SUV is one of the top 20 sellers.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Good to see the Model X still gaining market share - it must be one of the most expensive vehicles in your table. And no heated/cooled cupholders like the Mercedes! The speed boost to the X75 will hopefully propel it further along, though I can't help but think Elon Musk's original decision to insource seat manufacturing hasn't helped Tesla. Anyways, back to the numbers.

The following should be apposite and of interest:

NISSAN ROGUE CROSSOVER DETHRONES TOYOTA CAMRY FOR TOP-SELLING NON-PICKUP SPOT | April 10, 2017
Source: The best-selling "car" in the U.S. isn't a car at all
Sales numbers: Nissan Rogue US car sales figures

Additional detail - the stretched Cadillac Escalade ESV sold 1'253 vehicles in June for a total of 6,923 this year.
Source: Cadillac Escalade Sales Numbers

Thank you for keeping the monthly sales threads updated!

 

[vigge50]

June numbers are in. The large SUV's still holding up well even though the overall U.S. sales are slipping. The Model S thread is showing some scary numbers. Be interesting to see when the SUV sales start trending down. I guess the thinking is that sedan purchasers are just moving to SUV's. I don't track sales of the smaller SUV's but did notice that the Kia Soul small SUV is one of the top 20 sellers.

I can't find the Model S thread, can you share a link?

 

[RubberToe]

I can't find the Model S thread, can you share a link?

Model S sales versus other large luxury vehicles

 

[RubberToe]

July numbers are in. Even the large luxury SUV market is starting to show signs of cooling off. Only up 2% this year versus 21% last year. Model X gaining share as its production starts to even surpass Model S at times.

Note it had 8.8% share versus these other SUVs in 2016, and so far this year it stands at 9.2%.

 

[skilly]

One has to imagine that this market is strong because of the very low cost on fuel. Bump it back up to 4.50/gallon and I bet the overall numbers move down EXCEPT for MX.

 

[Electroman]

.. and then MX will go up

 

[larmor]

One has to imagine that this market is strong because of the very low cost on fuel. Bump it back up to 4.50/gallon and I bet the overall numbers move down EXCEPT for MX.

Not sure if gas will go up-- would mean that there is a demand for gas. However cheap gas gets, technical progress in EVs and utility scale energy will translate to lower electrical costs overall-- does Moore's law apply to utility scale power generation? Some industries remain slow to innovation. Improvements to technology in the energy sector and in EVs should make EVs overall cheaper to operate, even if they give gas away...

 

[tescroft]

It is hard to understand why a car like the X5 stills sells so well. This is completely outdated technology and looks ugly.

 

[skilly]

Not sure if gas will go up-- would mean that there is a demand for gas. However cheap gas gets, technical progress in EVs and utility scale energy will translate to lower electrical costs overall-- does Moore's law apply to utility scale power generation? Some industries remain slow to innovation. Improvements to technology in the energy sector and in EVs should make EVs overall cheaper to operate, even if they give gas away...

There are certainly lots of variables but demand is relative - not just consumption purely. All they need to do is shut a couple of refineries down for 'maintenance" and costs go up due to supply. Add in some world unrest that limits supplies and you get a 5.00 gallon.

Russia and Saudi Arabia are certainly doing their part to stabilize the per barrel prices. The aggressive US Shale exploration doesn't look like its going to stop anytime soon with a relaxed EPA presence so its a bit of a tug of war. All that said, I can't imagine prices staying where they are for the long term.