Model X sales versus other large luxury SUV's

[FlatSix911]

top gear article that echos a lot of thoughts in this thread:

Opinion: Tesla needs to stop re-inventing the wheel

personally i love the FWD but my wife hates them. my kids love them tho.

Best auto review quote ever ...

So, falcon doors. Advantages over normal doors: just occasionally they aid access.
Drawbacks: sloth, weight, complexity, inconvenience, inconsistency, packaging efficiency, cost, potential reliability…

 

[AnxietyRanger]

FWD are *marketing*

Indeed they are.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Disappointing to who? pointed out, despite a concentrated effort to increase production, the production rate isn't keeping up with demand (what snagged Tesla was the AP2 which slowed production below projected in 2016). The deliveries are reflection of that. The Model X is still the third bestselling plug-in in the US market for 2016, despite this.

Disappointing given the market potential for an EV SUV. And, I would imagine, the Model X has indeed been disappointing to Tesla. I take Elon Musk's comment on maybe it should not have been made as a tacit admission. They willed it into existence, and I applaud that because I personally like the end result, but it seems obvious to me a more traditional approach would have resulted in more sales and less stress on Tesla's manufacturing.

And as per the narrative of the doors being a disadvantage in sales, that is impossible to tell. Some people bought the X explicitly because of the doors, some don't care either way, and some held off because of the doors. Hard to tell which proportion is higher. One thing is certain though: the doors do draw a crowd and get people asking questions.

Of course we are speculating here. But it seems like valid speculation to me. The problems they caused in Model X's launch are well known and documented by now: the change from hydraulic to electric with is delays and lawsuits, the seal issues around the doors - actually named a critical path item at some point - the folding second row issues apparently caused by in-seat seatbelt requirements, warranty and quality issues concerning the doors (plentily documented on TMC), and resulting delays in launch.

And the sales numbers are not through the roof either.

It is not very hard to see IMO that with traditional doors Model X quite likely would have fared better on the market thus far. We shall see how it sells going forward.

 

[WarpedOne]

But it seems like wild speculation to me.

There, I fixed it for ya...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

There, I fixed it for ya...

You are calling it wild speculation to speculate that falcon wings may be a disadvantage in sales? Even with the delays, additional costs that are known, and with all the issues that have come with them?

Okay. I guess we'll just agree to disagree on the wild. Seems contrary to common sense to me. But I do agree it is speculation. We shall see how the sales progress.

 

[WarpedOne]

good.

 

[Electroman]

There, I fixed it for ya...

you can keep the head in the sand and keep repeating, "Model X is a wild success", or look at what X could have been in terms of sales potential and where it is right now and learn from it. That X is limping in sales compared to its potential is known, but are the doors (and the resultant price increase) the main contributor, we will never know for certainty but you can make inferences.

 

[larmor]

Best auto review quote ever ...

So, falcon doors. Advantages over normal doors: just occasionally they aid access.
Drawbacks: sloth, weight, complexity, inconvenience, inconsistency, packaging efficiency, cost, potential reliability…

Disagree with this drawback: i had a large SUV in the past (GL550 and GL450), and if we could get into the garage, there is no way we could open the traditional doors, without having to squeeze ourselves with deep inspiration or risk car door hitting the other car-- so we never parked in garage.

With MX, fits in garage with other car. FWDs open reliably, all the way, even when other car is close-- 1.5 feet away. IMHO access is way improved, as I don't have to lean over to buckle kiddos in booster seats. No need for deep inspiration of ingress or egress. No need to put my hand as human barrier on door to avoid hitting other car-- this also applies to parking lots.

My only concern in parking is other people's doors hitting our MX. Otherwise, I'm super comfortable parking in narrow confines, next to other cars, and easily get in and out. And no i don't want a minivan-- had one of the first ones back in 85...

 

[McRat]

Tesla is a rarity in the auto industry. While SUVs do cost more than similar sedans, they also sell more.

On paper, the sales numbers should be flipped. Model X should be big seller and the Model S the low seller.

The 75D stripper Model X is $85.5k? The 75D Model S with air susp is $82k. Not a significant difference.

 

[McRat]

... And no i don't want a minivan-- had one of the first ones back in 85...

I had a 1970 Mini-van, that looked like:

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Tesla is a rarity in the auto industry. While SUVs do cost more than similar sedans, they also sell more.

On paper, the sales numbers should be flipped. Model X should be big seller and the Model S the low seller.

The 75D stripper Model X is $85.5k? The 75D Model S with air susp is $82k. Not a significant difference.

So why is Tesla unique in that its SUV sells actually less than its sedan... when traditional logic and market sizes say the situation should be the the SUV selling lots more than the sedan?

I guess people can pick from three, really:

1) Model X is still just ramping up, production constraints

2) EV market is different, Model S is getting lots of buyers from non premium sedan markets distorting the split

3) What is different in Model X? Falcon wings. Are they limiting the appeal of Model X?

I am leaning on 3) in a big way, though I would speculate 1) and 2) also play a small part.

The falcon wings are in many ways a hassle and people in general are not very patient with hassles, unless the thing is something they are passionate about and willing to live with the hassle. This is slightly offset by a portion of people for whose conditions (e.g. child seat usage and their garage properties) actually benefit from them.

Model S was all about making EV normal and hassle-free. Model X adds hassle.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Disagree with this drawback: i had a large SUV in the past (GL550 and GL450), and if we could get into the garage, there is no way we could open the traditional doors, without having to squeeze ourselves with deep inspiration or risk car door hitting the other car-- so we never parked in garage.

But was that really listed as a drawback?

So, falcon doors. Advantages over normal doors: just occasionally they aid access.
Drawbacks: sloth, weight, complexity, inconvenience, inconsistency, packaging efficiency, cost, potential reliability…

I think your scenario is listed right there. Occasionally falcon wings do aid access. If your scenario is aided by the falcon wings more than it is hindered, then clearly you are in this group. Then again the list of people with problematic garage experiences and issues with doors not opening sufficiently or hitting a pipe are plenty - unlike traditional doors, automated doors like this can be hard to handle if they miss...

I respect your experience. I am sure it is as you say. There is a portion of users for whom the falcon wings do work. They big question in a thread about Model X sales IMO is, how big is the other group for whom traditional doors would work better?

 

[larmor]

But was that really listed as a drawback?



I think your scenario is listed right there. Occasionally falcon wings do aid access. If your scenario is aided by the falcon wings more than it is hindered, then clearly you are in this group. Then again the list of people with problematic garage experiences and issues with doors not opening sufficiently or hitting a pipe are plenty - unlike traditional doors, automated doors like this can be hard to handle if they miss...

I respect your experience. I am sure it is as you say. There is a portion of users for whom the falcon wings do work. They big question IMO is, how big is the other group for whom traditional doors would work better?

I think the difference with those who are experiencing problems, is not taking into account obstacles. Allowing for the early issues with the FWDs, which i never experienced, one does have to take care about obstacles, just like if you have a sports car you have to be careful about the concrete berms in parking lots.

The same goes about the driver and passenger doors, i like that they stop before any object. I dislike parking lot dings, and dislike causing them as well.

I think the MX with FWDs is ideally suited to a people mover and will be immensely convenient with FSD dropoffs and pick ups, when they come.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I think the difference with those who are experiencing problems, is not taking into account obstacles. Allowing for the early issues with the FWDs, which i never experienced, one does have to take care about obstacles, just like if you have a sports car you have to be careful about the concrete berms in parking lots.

The same goes about the driver and passenger doors, i like that they stop before any object. I dislike parking lot dings, and dislike causing them as well.

I think the MX with FWDs is ideally suited to a people mover and will be immensely convenient with FSD dropoffs and pick ups, when they come.

I guess the thing is, I don't think most people want to be careful beyond what they consider normal. That's why most people don't want those low-flying sportscars for daily drivers. More often they want covenient SUVs, even though they never go offroad...

Regular doors are easily operable and fast. They are intuitive and they are familiar, neither of which the automated, two-hinge falcon wings are. Plus falcon wings are slow.

It is very rare that anyone not buys a car due to doors or has a family member hating a car based on regular doors, yet with Model X we hear that quite a bit about the falcon wings. They seem divisive. It could linger on as a sales/acceptance issue.

Electrically operated regular doors, now, those might get have more acceptance. That is a different question.

 

[jnuyens]

That's a lot of FWD hating here...
Don't you understand it's "iconic"?
I dreamed of the Lamborghini doors for years, and absolutely love the stunning MX doors.
Nobody questions the practicality of a _slower_ Lambo, yet Tesla even succeeded in removing the practical problems associated with gullwing doors by turning them into Falcon Wing Doors,...

For me, it's a work of art and an engineering marvell...

Art counts!

 

[FlatSix911]

That's a lot of FWD hating here... Don't you understand it's "iconic"?
I dreamed of the Lamborghini doors for years, and absolutely love the stunning MX doors.
Nobody questions the practicality of a _slower_ Lambo, yet Tesla even succeeded in removing the practical problems associated with gullwing doors by turning them into Falcon Wing Doors,...
For me, it's a work of art and an engineering marvel... Art counts!

For those who believe that FWD lives matter ... Lambo doors are a bit of a joke in the sports car world

 

[stefan.bc]

Tesla even succeeded in removing the practical problems

Are you joking?
I have to modify the garage in order for the FWD to open all the way. If you park outside I guess it's ok.

 

[McRat]

For those who believe that FWD lives matter ... Lambo doors are a bit of a joke in the sports car world

You can pretty much guarantee you're going whoop some arse when the guy shows up with Lambo doors and it ain't a Lamborghini.

 

[larmor]

Tmp_3199-20170214_171146928669064

• larmor
• Feb 14, 2017

Both cars in garage and FWD open...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

That's a lot of FWD hating here...
Don't you understand it's "iconic"?
I dreamed of the Lamborghini doors for years, and absolutely love the stunning MX doors.
Nobody questions the practicality of a _slower_ Lambo, yet Tesla even succeeded in removing the practical problems associated with gullwing doors by turning them into Falcon Wing Doors,...

For me, it's a work of art and an engineering marvell...

Art counts!

Everybody sane would question the practicality of a Lamborghini. They are not practical purchases at all. And like sporty Porsches, they sell miniscule amounts a year. Now, Porsche Cayenne on the other hand... And who here is hating falcon wings? I think most people on this thread are simply speculating on their sales appeal and potential, compared to regular doors. I love the falcon wings personally. But my realism radar says I am probably in the minority.

I do understand falcon wings are iconic. Hence my comment that if they fail commercially, it will be a DeLorean kind of failure, not a Pontiac Aztek... Surely the car will go down in the automotive history books as special. On the other hand, the Model X is for Tesla a bit like the BMW i8 is for BMW. Remembered and known more for its flashy and weird design (the doors in the case of Model X), rather than its allaround great car credentials - unlike Model S.

How many actually would buy a Laborghini for their daily driver if they could afford it? I get it that many children long for one, but in reality, even if they can afford it growing up most will simply buy something more practical. Similarly, I would argue most people remember the falcon wings because they are different and interesting, not because they are convinced they would make good doors in their own car. Basically, people can and do appreciate art, but not all want to live it.

And that brings us to the potential problem: It is quite possible Model X would have the sales potential of Model S many times over due to its more popular form-factor: an SUV (vs. sedan). But it is possible Tesla missed that opportunity with the falcon wings, that move the Model X more towards a niche SUV, than a mainstream SUV.