Model X sales versus other large luxury SUV's

[AnxietyRanger]

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• larmor
• Feb 14, 2017

Both cars in garage and FWD open...

Yep. No question that falcon wings move the space issue upwards. You have a high ceiling in your garage, but a tight fit sideways. Even scissor doors would be practical there. But at the same time there is a reason why not all cars have scissor doors.

I get it that falcon wings are trying to solve the problem with scissor (height requirement) and gullwing doors (both height and width requirement) with the sensors and the dual-hinge setup. I am just not convinced they are, in the end, solving it to the extent that it would be better more often - in average use - than regular, manually operated doors, let alone sliding doors.

And most importantly, whether or not they are helping more in objective observation, I am not convicend the market at large is willing to believe it and purchase accordingly.

 

[stefan.bc]

Tmp_3199-20170214_171146928669064

• larmor
• Feb 14, 2017

Both cars in garage and FWD open...

Not for some
Will MX fit in my garage?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I wonder how large a percentage of people can be lured into buying a car that requires garage modifications. Those who want it, sure, Model X has been the cause of many a garage door opener upgrade it seems... But the mainstream premium SUV buyer?

 

[Saghost]

I wonder how large a percentage of people can be lured into buying a car that requires garage modifications. Those who want it, sure, Model X has been the cause of many a garage door opener upgrade it seems... But the mainstream premium SUV buyer?

Require garage modifications? Dramatic much?

The falcon wings are far enough back on the car that I don't think there's any garage where the door, opener, or rails are an issue for the FWDs if you back in.

Also, as you saw above, many folks with "conventional" rear doors can't/don't dare open them in the garage, so how would not opening the FWD be worse. At least with them you can back in or change the garage door opener. With long "conventional" doors and a narrow garage space you're just stuck.

 

[hiroshiy]

I thought this was RubberToe's thread about sales numbers, not to argue about practicality of FWD and its effect on sales...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Require garage modifications? Dramatic much?

The falcon wings are far enough back on the car that I don't think there's any garage where the door, opener, or rails are an issue for the FWDs if you back in.

Also, as you saw above, many folks with "conventional" rear doors can't/don't dare open them in the garage, so how would not opening the FWD be worse. At least with them you can back in or change the garage door opener. With long "conventional" doors and a narrow garage space you're just stuck.

Multiple people on TMC have reported making garage modifications for Model X, including the most common one of moving the opening mechanism. Certainly for many they have been able to operate their previous cars there and Model X has prompted changes.

I get what you are saying. FWDs move the space issue upwards - while regular doors have space issues sideways. The thing is, though, people are used to that horizontal space issue. Convincing them to change habits and take into consideration vertical space instead, can be a taller order than asking them to just get along with regular doors.

Also, the automated nature of Model X FWDs means the question is somewhat out of hands of the user. With a tight space and a manual regular door, most people know how to get by. With an automated and possible a little erratic mechanism things are a bit different...

For many the fact that they have to install an EV charger is already a bit of a hassle, even though that change in the long run is of course super convenient.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe falcon wings will be accepted and are not a sales hindrace. But it wouldn't surprise me if they are.

I thought this was RubberToe's thread about sales numbers, not to argue about practicality of FWD and its effect on sales...

FWDs are an example of sales commentary IMO. I agree their practicality in itself is better discussed in other threads, but the effect on acceptance and sales (and anything else related to sales), at least I myself find relevant. I believe we are debating whether or not FWDs are a sales issue for Model X vs. other luxury SUVs.

 

[Saghost]

Multiple people on TMC have reported making garage modifications for Model X, including the most common one of moving the opening mechanism. Certainly for many they have been able to operate their previous cars there and Model X has prompted changes.

I get what you are saying. FWDs move the space issue upwards - while regular doors have space issues sideways. The thing is, though, people are used to that horizontal space issue. Convincing them to change habits and take into consideration vertical space instead, can be a taller order than asking them to just get along with regular doors.

Also, the automated nature of Model X FWDs means the question is somewhat out of hands of the user. With a tight space and a manual regular door, most people know how to get by. With an automated and possible a little erratic mechanism things are a bit different...

For many the fact that they have to install an EV charger is already a bit of a hassle, even though that change in the long run is of course super convenient.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe falcon wings will be accepted and are not a sales hindrace. But it wouldn't surprise me if they are.



FWDs are an example of sales commentary IMO. I agree their practicality in itself is better discussed in other threads, but the effect on acceptance and sales (and anything else related to sales), at least I myself find relevant. I believe we are debating whether or not FWDs are a sales issue for Model X vs. other luxury SUVs.

Folks on TMC have certainly made changes to their garage in connection with getting Xs. What bothered me was the "required" part, which seems like a mischaracterization of the situation to me.

 

[vandacca]

Not to get too philosophical, but driving a Tesla generally means making lifestyle changes:
- re-arranging garage openers
- adding charging infrastructure
- planning charging stops on road trip
- driving less aggressively to increase range
- having to learn and monitor kwh usage
- remembering to plug in every evening
- etc.

IMO it's a small price to pay to get off oil. Also, many of those changes are actually an improvement to lifestyle (eg. no weekly refueling).

 

[stefan.bc]

re-arranging garage openers

How is the regular person supposed to know that?

 

[acadapter]

Not to get too philosophical, but driving a Tesla generally means making lifestyle changes:
- re-arranging garage openers
- adding charging infrastructure
- planning charging stops on road trip
- driving less aggressively to increase range
- having to learn and monitor kwh usage
- remembering to plug in every evening
- etc.

Great point. The charging station install costs far more than changing the hardware for a garage door opening (including the need to get a state certified permit, etc). Much more effort for the former.

 

[vandacca]

How is the regular person supposed to know that?

Firstly, it only applies to the Model-X.
Secondly, I think most people immediately have garage concerns when they see a Model-X with open fwd. That usually is the trigger to investigate the issue and solutions (eg. ask Tesla for an overnight test-drive to see if it can open in their garage and then investigate solutions if fwd can't fully open in garage).

 

[larmor]

FWDs are an example of sales commentary IMO. I agree their practicality in itself is better discussed in other threads, but the effect on acceptance and sales (and anything else related to sales), at least I myself find relevant. I believe we are debating whether or not FWDs are a sales issue for Model X vs. other luxury SUVs.

An aside: behavioral economics comes into play and likely this field has changed significantly in the past five years with the proliferation of social media and connected devices.

FWDs while rate limiting for current buyers and traditional buyers, has had a huge impact on the kiddos-or future buyers. My four year old, who is the least bit interested in cars asked, as we exited our MX the other day, when is the model 3 coming... Honestly, i have not had any discussion more than five minutes long or more than once about the M3 reservation a long time ago. I have no idea where the post card picture is...

 

[stefan.bc]

So maybe all the above + more should be placed somewhere in a "before you buy" section, and even better the sale guy should make sure it's the right car for you.

I will add some:
- Think twice before you buy if you don't live next to a SC. Most(I might be wrong here) people visit the SC a few times in the first 6 months of ownership.
- If you rent, ask Tesla for an overnight test-drive, as you probably don't want to pay for the garage modifications yourself or move just because the FWD don't properly open (get a Model S maybe)

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Not to get too philosophical, but driving a Tesla generally means making lifestyle changes:
- re-arranging garage openers
- adding charging infrastructure
- planning charging stops on road trip
- driving less aggressively to increase range
- having to learn and monitor kwh usage
- remembering to plug in every evening
- etc.

IMO it's a small price to pay to get off oil. Also, many of those changes are actually an improvement to lifestyle (eg. no weekly refueling).

Be that as it may, the jury is still out if the first one is necessary or has a good benefits vs. not ratio.

Again, what if Model X was an SUV with regular doors. Would the list be, on average, equal or shorter?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Firstly, it only applies to the Model-X.
Secondly, I think most people immediately have garage concerns when they see a Model-X with open fwd. That usually is the trigger to investigate the issue and solutions (eg. ask Tesla for an overnight test-drive to see if it can open in their garage and then investigate solutions if fwd can't fully open in garage).

Speculative. It might well trigger a dismissal more often than an investigation. Again, what if there were just regular doors... After all, it is nost just about your garage, but every garage you may use in your everyday life.

It seems like a potentially not insignificant adoption obstacle. At the very least this obstacle will trip some buyers. I concede it is speculation is hurts more than it helps, but it would seem like pretty common sense speculation.

 

[stefan.bc]

Both cars in garage and FWD open...

I can't tell for sure, but your garage seems higher than mine, maybe by half a foot to a foot.

 

[larmor]

I can't tell for sure, but your garage seems higher than mine, maybe by half a foot to a foot.

Quite possibly. But to be fair, our prior GL cars were much taller as well. MX sits nearly the same height as a GLC mercedes.

 

[jnuyens]

If it were regular doors, it was just a 'SUV based upon the Model S'.
Now it's the Model X, a completely different car.

It's something special with its own identity.

Could it be simpler? Yes.
But then the Model Y will be what you search.

For me, the Model X is the Lambo with vertical doors and without the impracticalities of a Lambo
Such as catching on fire.

In the US the (new car) price difference between a Model X P100D and the Lamborghini Hurican is: 153.000 USD versus 320.000 USD - more than the double. But from my perspective - in the EU - it's a different ratio: 182.000 Euro for the Model X versus the Hurican at 230.000 Euro - a difference of less than 50.000 euro or about 1/5th of difference. These are similarly priced cars...

I understand why - from a US perspective - comparing with a double priced car seems absurd, but here in Europe, people who can buy a relatively fully specced Model X, can surely afford a Lamborghini.
For this upscale market (at current exchange rate the 182.000 Euro Model X is 235.000 usd - some airplanes are cheaper), the FWD 'extra special' appeal isn't that neglectable.
And while they're completely different cars, they both are pieces of art, but the Lambo is a symbol of a (childhood) past, the Model X is the symbol of the future, a lot safer, greener, has autopilot, makes less noise to be almost as quick, can tow holiday stuffs and accepts the reality of a family life - and it still has vertical doors.

For me it was the ideal 40-year present - and my wife is happy that a Lambo will not get me killed

PS: and it runs Linux too :-D

 

[RubberToe]

I thought this was RubberToe's thread about sales numbers, not to argue about practicality of FWD and its effect on sales...

Actually, all the FWD discussion is probably on topic. Comparing Model X sales to other vehicles, you have to take into account whether the FWD's contribute to or detract from sales. Lots of good perspectives from both sides.

I'm not sure that the definition of "success" for the Model X should be the same as for the Model S, which has almost taken over the premium sedan segment. Would it be great if the Model X did the same? Sure it would. Is the Model X then deemed a "failure" if it doesn't? I don't think so.

The Model S will go down in history, already has actually, as the single EV that proved that EV's don't have to have any constraints versus Ice cars. The sales numbers reflect that the demand was always there for such a vehicle, it just didn't exist.

While the large SUV segment is currently "in favor" due to low gas prices, the Model X is a very expensive vehicle. I think Tesla will be fine with X sales as long as they are able to sell them at a profit.

If the Model 3 does what the Model S did, and given the reservation numbers it may even surpass it, meaning becoming one of the best selling cars period, then Tesla will be 2 for 3 in the "complete game changer" category.

No company hits a grand slam with every product they release. Nor do they have to. The Model S was a very tough act to follow.

I would expect Model X sales to benefit from the 2170 batteries when they switch over to them, and can reduce the price.

RT

 

[bonaire]

The markets are different. The Model X was a targeted buy for many Model S owners going back to 2012 reservation-taking. The original MS buyers were considering what to get for a spouse or second vehicle and targeted buying a Model X. Of the 180k or so Model S sold so far, the 36k Model X fill a want for those who may have already been a Tesla owner. I don't know how to know but I would love to see the ratio of "already a MS owner, bought an MX" to the "we only have bought a Model X, no Model S" families. It's probable we may only hear anecdotal ratios but the key to know when to start really comparing the MX sales versus other luxury SUVs is when people start doing direct-compares when out SUV shopping "objectively". And not when an MS owner who has one or two MS in his buying history ended up buying an MX to replace the family SUV and getting "the wife" to trust and accept electric vehicles. I only use this formula here because of numerous threads already on TMC describing the same. In my circle, the families I know who want to trust electric vehicles all have a trust-issue (still) with range, availability of convenient in-public charging, winter range, costs, etc. Eventually those will succumb to laws of scale and prices will drop, more public charging will occur and the trust issues grow. That is when the market is a real comparable market. But currently, MX sales are small enough to just be taken up by much of those who already have MS in their family and that skews objective comparisons.