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  • The final cut of TMC Podcast #34 is available now with topics timestamped. We covered Tesla's rollercoaster prices, Toyota pushing junk science, Mike's new Model 3, Optimizing track mode for snow driving, FSD V11 apparently coming by the end of this week, and more. You can watch and check out the chat replay on YouTube.

Model X Tally

Followed the Model S for over 2 years, but wanted to see it in person before placing a reservation. Went down to Ft. Lauderdale last week and loved the car and placed a reservation. I was so impressed with the floor pan with the suspension and motor set-up, being a "gear head car enthusiast" and seeing the Brembo 4 piston brakes and vented rotors on all 4 corners, with independent control arms and all on the suspension. Then, watched the premier of the Model X, and placed a reservation for it Friday afternoon. My X reservation number was just over 200, and it was Friday afternoon around 4 est.
 

bonnie

I play a nice person on twitter.
Feb 6, 2011
16,429
9,937
Columbia River Gorge
In the TMC (very unrepresentative) poll, about 15% (4 of 27) of the Model X reservers were shifting from the Model S.

I'd expect it would be skewed on TMC, since most of us are here either as owners and/or reservation holders. I've had two friends put down deposits on the Model X - that's new. One was just car shopping online, wanting to replace their BMW & Tesla vehicles showed up in their search of luxury sedans. They weren't considering electric before.

Perhaps we should start a poll on how many people in our circle of family and friends have become newly interested in going electric and have put a deposit down (or are about to).
 

Joel

Active Member
Mar 24, 2011
1,266
279
Michigan
I'd expect it would be skewed on TMC, since most of us are here either as owners and/or reservation holders. I've had two friends put down deposits on the Model X - that's new. One was just car shopping online, wanting to replace their BMW & Tesla vehicles showed up in their search of luxury sedans. They weren't considering electric before.

Perhaps we should start a poll on how many people in our circle of family and friends have become newly interested in going electric and have put a deposit down (or are about to).

My neighbor reserved a Model X yesterday. Similar circumstance to your friend.
 

Trnsl8r

S85 2012-2018, X90 since 2016, 3 since 2018
Aug 20, 2011
1,757
145
San Jose, CA
Did Tesla announce how much Xs they are making in the first year?
I'd guess at least 5000, meaning 400 is one month of production. It's hard to wait, but on the other hand, for Roadster that was one year wait or even more.

I still envy all reservation holders! :)

The figure I heard was that they plan on 15,000/year when in full blown production. First signature deliveries in late 2013 (I'm guessing December), but presumably the first couple of months will be slower.
 

Robert.Boston

Model S VIN P01536
Moderator
If the Model S ramp-rate can be a guide, Tesla expected to be at half-speed for the first six months (5,000 in 2012, vs. 20,000 annual target). Which would suggest 3,750 Model Xs produced in Q1 and Q2 2014.

This is probably conservatively low. Tesla will have the Model S line up and humming, and that should allow it to ramp up faster.
 

ckessel

Active Member
Jan 15, 2011
4,455
405
Almost 500 reservations in just a few days. I assume that's faster than the initial rate of reservations for the Model S?
I would assume so by a pretty large margin, just because Tesla has a heck of a lot more awareness now than when the S was first available. Tesla has 8000+ folks with S reservations that are all going to be aware of it and help spread the word, plus Tesla has had more media attention in general with the S approaching release.
 

ckessel

Active Member
Jan 15, 2011
4,455
405
I'm just hoping to drop far enough to get mine in 2012! I'm P5651 (if memory serves) so its not overly likely but I can hope, right?
I'd love to move up some, but I think it'd be a bad sign if the X cannibalizes the S noticeably. It'd mean Tesla messed up and has two cars going after the same market. A little overlap amongst EV enthusiasts is a given (folks that wanted an SUV, but took the S since it was the only EV with decent range), but you don't want to see a large overlap.
 
I don't think that's going to be a problem ckessel. They're going to attract far more customers with both a sedan and a CUV than with just one.

Jalopnik is ripping them up for revealing the X before the S is even on the street. I think the reason they did it was more for investor confidence than anything else. They wanted to show the promise of the skateboard and they wanted to show it fast. So four months after the big Model S beta reveal, they bring out the nearly production ready Model X. Four months! FOUR MONTHS!
 

bonnie

I play a nice person on twitter.
Feb 6, 2011
16,429
9,937
Columbia River Gorge
I don't think that's going to be a problem ckessel. They're going to attract far more customers with both a sedan and a CUV than with just one.

Jalopnik is ripping them up for revealing the X before the S is even on the street. I think the reason they did it was more for investor confidence than anything else. They wanted to show the promise of the skateboard and they wanted to show it fast. So four months after the big Model S beta reveal, they bring out the nearly production ready Model X. Four months! FOUR MONTHS!

That's my take, too. (Four months!!) It sends a strong message of agility, of a good game plan for getting new vehicles to market.

I also personally subscribe to the 'theory of abundance', that one doesn't compete against the other (think of CVS /Walgreens, Lowes/Home Depot - competitors in close proximity- that's not by mistake). While some Model S reservations will be switched (like mine), the publicity of Model X will likely drive additional Model S reservations.
 

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