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For those of you unschooled in the art of Model X chart analysis, let me be of service (Paul, you may have to start another thread, like the Technical Analysis thread in the Investor's section).
1. We are about the have a "Blue Diamond" Cross - and extremely bullish chart formation where the Global Monthly Reservations line crosses the 12-month rolling average.
2. We see the beginnings of the strong "Everest Formation" with the third and most powerful peak forming its left-hand ascent. Bears will I'm sure (incorrectly) view this current pattern as forming a "right-shoulder" for a classic investing Head-and-Shoulders formation leading to a steep drop....sorry boot-camps, this is Model X chart analysis, not investment chart analysis. The third Peak in a classic "Everest Formation" usually is marked by the exponential nature of the ascent and the staggering heights of its peak.
3. If you look very closely, you will note both the "Unicorn formation" galloping across the entire chart, the obvious signs Daenerys should have never trusted those Meereens, and that your lucky numbers are 7, 23, 29 and 47....all prime.
But seriously, thanks to Paul for keeping this up. I do believe in the "Everest Formation". The Model S US Reservation rate hit a peak of 270/day on December 31, 2012. That was with:
1. No other models in the wild
2. No supercharger network
3. No international reservations
4. Little brand awareness
5. No International deliveries
6. No Falcon-wing doors
All are important, but the last one is being underestimated. There is no production vehicle with those doors and the first time a Model X rolls up at the grocery store, school, the country club - and those doors open like a shuttle craft from Star Trek the Mt. Everest chart becomes more like a SpaceX launch. What do many rich people want 1. Something that only they can have or is scarce 2. Something that is unique and displays their status 3. Something cool. The Model X is all of these.
I have no Crystal Ball but I will put the peak of the "Mt. Everest/SpaceX" liftoff in December of 2015 and will further hazard that in the month we will hit a peak of 600/day and will have over 6,000 reservations in the month....now wouldn't that be a sight to see.
"Houston....we have liftoff."
Well, one day someone from Fairbanks will register a Tesla, and then I'll have to hand in my crown, as it's further north than we are. Irregardslessly, since we're way up in the mountains and they're down in the flats, I'll retain some vestige of snootinessmenthoodship. Separately, I'll be surprised if we don't see an X in Fairbanks before we see an S - makes much more sense.
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bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
As long-time fans of my posts (n=1: me) might remember, Borealis suffered a crippling accident New Year's Eve 2013-4. He's been significantly pawdicapped ever since, and has very considerable trouble entering/exiting any vehicle. We're hoping the door + mystery seating combo in the X will address that in a meaningful way.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I'm with you there. One of my pups, Houston, was hit by a car several years ago. After rebuilding both hips, he's leading a pretty normal life - but jumping into the back of the Jeep is out of the question. Luckily I can lift his 92# royal self, both in and out, but a vehicle that he might be able to navigate on his own would be welcome.
LOL. <3 it. Thx for that.
In the past week I've had two Model X moments already! With having the MODEL X plate on my S already, there have been two very fun moments. In both cases the driver was pointing to my car and doing door lift gestures. Their passengers reaction was priceless. The look of amazement and wow that's so cool was quite evident. Prior to that I would just get a lot of thumbs up and smiles when they see my car/plate. Also people on the sidewalk pointing to my car and sometimes hear "Tesla!" being yelled.
Yesterday I arrived home to find my lighted applique waiting for me. I'm going to try and get this thing installed (along with front/rear dashcams). Hopefully I can catch another Model X moment and start a thread on it.
fengshui
Member
Model S hit a peak on December 31st, 2012 due to an announced price increase for reservations made January 1st 2013 and after. Lots of people who were on the fence made reservations before the price increase.
hill
high fiber member
You short folk got nothing to worry about. It's us normal folk (6'-5" here) that gotta be carful . . . :biggrin:
Wow - over a hundred pages of posts ... for years. I saw a map one could enter their location. Thought it was here. Guess I'll keep looking & see if I can find it again. I'm trying to determine who my closest 'X' neighbors are.
.
I believe you are talking about this thread but I don't think the map is still maintained. I tried adding mine twice in April and May and it still hasn't been added to the map. I've heard from a couple others who haven't seen theirs show up either.
hill
high fiber member
hill
high fiber member
Tesla Model X Tally Statistics as of June 30, 2015
28,241 Global Tally Total / 23,978 Estimated Total (net of cancellations)[SUP]*[/SUP]
Stats by Region
*Disclaimers:
Footnotes:
1. Estimated 19,500 net reservations as of Dec 31, 2014 as per Q4 report of having "almost 20,000" on the books. Result:19,500 out of 23,643 = ~ 17.52% up to this date are likely cancelled.
2. Estimated Cancellations after December 31, 2014, currently estimated at 20/month.
28,241 Global Tally Total / 23,978 Estimated Total (net of cancellations)[SUP]*[/SUP]
| June 2015 | Rolling Averages | Lifetime Averages |
848 (28.3 per day)
|
|
|
Stats by Region
| Region | Tally on Jun 30 | Tally on May 31 | Tally on Apr 30 | Tally on Mar 31 | Tally on Feb 28 | Tally on Jan 31 | Jun per Day | May per Day | Apr per Day | Mar per Day | Feb per Day | Jan Per Day | Lifetime Average Per Day | Lifetime Average Per Month | ||
| Canada | 1,237 | 1,139 | 1,016 | 1,016 | 1,016 | 973 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 30.4 | ||
| US | 19,851 | 19,171 | 18,494 | 17,916 | 17,337 | 16,994 | 22.7 | 21.8 | 19.3 | 18.7 | 12.3 | 15.0 | 15.7 | 488.1 | ||
| European | 4,375 | 4,305 | 4,182 | 4,080 | 3,929 | 3,672 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 107.6 | ||
| Asia Pacific | 2,778 | 2,778 | 2,768 | 2,749 | 2,680 | 2,454 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 68.3 | ||
| Global | 28,241 | 27,393 | 26,460 | 25,761 | 24,962 | 24,093 | 28.3 | 30.1 | 23.3 | 25.8 | 31.0 | 15.0 | 22.5 | 694.4 | ||
Estimated Cancellations[SUP]1[/SUP] | 4,263 | 4,243 | 4,223 | 4,203 | 4,183 | 4,163 | ||||||||||
| Estimated Totals[SUP]2[/SUP] | 23,978 | 23,150 | 22,237 | 21,558 | 20,779 | 19,930 |
*Disclaimers:
- This collection of the numbers is gathered from posts by members on various threads and other forums. Please note: these aren't official numbers, and are to be taken with a grain of salt. Do not rely upon the total of production + signature numbers in any way as those who have upgraded from a production reservation to a signature reservation have been counted twice. Cancellations after December 31 are guesstimates.
- North America: Signatures assumed sold out as of March 26, 2014 and perhaps limited to 1,200.
- Europe: Signatures assumed sold out as of November 10, 2014 and perhaps limited to 500.
Footnotes:
1. Estimated 19,500 net reservations as of Dec 31, 2014 as per Q4 report of having "almost 20,000" on the books. Result:19,500 out of 23,643 = ~ 17.52% up to this date are likely cancelled.
2. Estimated Cancellations after December 31, 2014, currently estimated at 20/month.
superraz375
Member
Just reserved the X!
Reservation Sequence Number: 18,982
Anyone have a rough estimate of when to expect delivery?
Reservation Sequence Number: 18,982
Anyone have a rough estimate of when to expect delivery?
Congrats!! I'd say that number would come up by March or April 2016 if they start and ramp in Q3 this year as expected.
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