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dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
What kind of spike in cancellations do we expect now that more details are out and various unfounded dreams have been crushed (10000lbs towing, cameras instead of mirrors, etc)?
So news of the Sig configurator has my wife asking me "When will I actually get my car?" So gaming this out -- she has res # 4947. Assuming a 20% reservation melt, that puts her at ~ 4000. Are the ~ 1500 Signature X's first in line, putting her at 5500 cars produced?
At production levels of 100/wk for October, 200/wk for November, 300/wk December, 500/wk for January-- that puts her car production sometime around February. Make sense?
At production levels of 100/wk for October, 200/wk for November, 300/wk December, 500/wk for January-- that puts her car production sometime around February. Make sense?
dirkhh
Middle-aged Member
I'm estimating that mine should be in late Q1 / maybe April. Depends on when they start shipping the non-US ones. (US/P6218 for those who don't see signatures)
Congrats and welcome to TMC. Owned a demo S60 since May 2014, certainly has helped with the wait, but fingers crossed your early # comes up for config soon!
gjunky
Trifecta: Solar and both cars are EVs
I sure hope you are way too pessimistic on this being 8009 and I am hoping for January
During prior Q&A sessions, it was sort of implied that production rate toward the end of the Q4 period was 2000/week (MS and MX combined). I suppose that is 1000/wk of either. If production is "peppy" - She should have something by mid November to early December. If production is not peppy, careful not to tell Wall Street because they will yammer and blather all over the place regarding guidance.
Yeah, but thats in "Elon time". I figure it will probably take them 6 months to spool up to full production which doesn't get them to the 1000/week level until the end of Q1.
Thank you Paul Carter. Both I and more importantly - the wife, are eagerly awaiting to try the 'ludicrous' SUV.
I wonder if anyone will be able to get the Signature version without being on the list?
There were Sig dropouts with the Model S. The few that do will come available and company reps will be the ones to find out if there are any.
There's a wait list you could try and get on for an upgrade. Don't know how big, but doesn't hurt to ask them.
That 2000 has been guided down in later Q&A sessions to 1600 to 1800. A good first measure of how 'peppy' production will ramp up is when the next batch of reservation holders are requested to configure.
Congrats and welcome to TMC. Some great details coming out so far! Hopefully a global rollout will follow not to far along! Fingers crossed.
31,195 Global Tally Total / 26,892 Estimated Total (net of cancellations)[SUP]1,2[/SUP]
Stats by Region
* Note: large spike in China is due to first update since Nov 2014.
Disclaimers:
Footnotes:
1. Estimated 19,500 net reservations as of Dec 31, 2014 as per Q4 report of having "almost 20,000" on the books. Result:19,500 out of 23,643 = ~ 17.52% up to this date are likely cancelled.
2. Estimated Cancellations after December 31, 2014, currently estimated at 20/month
| August 2015 | Rolling Averages | Lifetime Averages |
1,730[SUP]*[/SUP] (55.8 per day)
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|
|
Stats by Region
| Region | Tally on Aug 31 | Tally on Jul 31 | Tally on Jun 30 | Tally on May 31 | Tally on Apr 30 | Tally on Mar 31 | Aug per Day | Jul per Day | Jun per Day | May per Day | Apr per Day | Mar per Day | Lifetime Average Per Day | Lifetime Average Per Month | ||
| Canada | 1,346 | 1,237 | 1,237 | 1,139 | 1,016 | 1,016 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 31.5 | ||
| US | 21,574 | 20,792 | 19,851 | 19,171 | 18,494 | 17,916 | 25.2 | 30.4 | 22.7 | 21.8 | 19.3 | 18.7 | 16.6 | 505.2 | ||
| European | 4,807 | 4,627 | 4,375 | 4,305 | 4,182 | 4,080 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 112.6 | ||
| Asia Pacific | 3,468 | 2,809 | 2,778 | 2,778 | 2,768 | 2,749 | 21.3[SUP]*[/SUP] | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 81.2 | ||
| Global | 31,195 | 29,465 | 28,241 | 27,393 | 26,460 | 25,761 | 55.8 | 39.5 | 28.3 | 30.1 | 23.3 | 25.8 | 24.0 | 730.4 | ||
Estimated Cancellations[SUP]1[/SUP] | 4,303 | 4,283 | 4,263 | 4,243 | 4,223 | 4,203 | ||||||||||
| Estimated Totals[SUP]2[/SUP] | 26,892 | 25,182 | 23,978 | 23,150 | 22,237 | 21,558 |
Disclaimers:
- This collection of the numbers is gathered from posts by members on various threads and other forums. Please note: these aren't official numbers, and are to be taken with a grain of salt. Do not rely upon the total of production + signature numbers in any way as those who have upgraded from a production reservation to a signature reservation have been counted twice. Cancellations after December 31 are guesstimates.
- North America: Signatures assumed sold out as of March 26, 2014 and perhaps limited to 1,200.
- Europe: Signatures assumed sold out as of November 10, 2014 and perhaps limited to 500.
Footnotes:
1. Estimated 19,500 net reservations as of Dec 31, 2014 as per Q4 report of having "almost 20,000" on the books. Result:19,500 out of 23,643 = ~ 17.52% up to this date are likely cancelled.
2. Estimated Cancellations after December 31, 2014, currently estimated at 20/month
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August 2015: Reservations by Region/Country Donut with % of Global
Production and Signature Edition: Global Tally 31,225
Production Global Tally: 29,188
Signature Global Tally: 2,037
Production and Signature Edition: Global Tally 31,225
- North America: 22,938 (USA 69.15% Canada 4.31%)
- Europe: 4,772 (15.28%)
- Asia Pacific: 3,515 (China 8.43%, Hong Kong 2.51%, Japan 0%, Australia 0.31%)
Production Global Tally: 29,188
- North America: 21,493 (USA 69.27% Canada 4.37%)
- Europe: 4,180 (14.32%)
- Asia Pacific: 3,515 (China 9.02%, Hong Kong 2.69%, Japan 0%, Australia 0.34%)
Signature Global Tally: 2,037
- North America: 1,445 (USA 67.45% Canada 3.49%)
- Europe: 592 (29.06%)
- Asia Pacific: (0%) -> Reservation holders may get invited to upgrade to Signature as regional roll-out nears
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