I'd go with somewhere in between original S ramp and D ramp worse case (more closer to D I'd imagine).I just want to know what real slow is. I'm hoping 150 per week(603/150=~4ks)
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scottf200
Well-Known Member
I haven't been around long enough to know what the original S ramp was. I'd guess much slower since they didn't have any experience.
They delivered the first handful of S's in June 2012. There was a slow handful of cars delivered from July to September, then it started to accelerate from October into the new year. We got VIN 4086 in mid-January, so it took 7 months to get the first 4000 cars out, probably half of those were during the first five months and the other half in December & January,
Hi MikeC: Can you check if there is a hidden sequence number in your My Tesla page?
Login to your My Tesla account, and check Page Source (in FireFox or Chrome, right click and select View Page Source).
and search for "vin_sn":
Code:
<p class="vin_rn"> RNXXXXXXX
</p>
<!-- <p class="vin_sn">
#SEQUENCE_NUMBER
</p> -->For older reservation, the sequence number is hidden in the source code.
I wonder if your new reservation still has this "vin_sn" number - which would be your sequence number.
The initial batches of P85D seemed to go into production November 21 of last year with the reveal being Oct 10.
If Sept 29 was the reveal of MX, then it will be interesting to see when volume picks up.
Now, with the series numbers going away, this thread will probably die-off. Thanks for all the work in terms of the data charts and capture. Now we wait for Vin #s...
Thanks I plan on plunking away at this for a while yet!
And I do think this thread has lots of life left in it. It'll likely be a year before the global roll out is complete. And I think we'll still be getting reservation sequence numbers for USA until they clear the backlog. I'm hoping that the sequence numbers will be visibly back. Note to reservation holders wanting to know their sequence number. Its still available in the web page source code.
On your My Tesla page, click on the View Profile button first, then view the page source and search for "_sn". I just confirmed its still there as of now at least in mine. I've also contacted a few people who have made recent reservations so I can get my September report completed. Example:
I've heard a new number of current reservations to be around 20-25k was unofficially reported out. We are now 10 months after Tesla confirmed almost 20,000 at the end of 2014 Q4 (which I put it at 19,500). Here's how that works out with the preliminary September numbers:
Attachments
Model X Tally reaches 32,618 in September 2015
32,618 Global Tally Total / 28,295 Estimated Total (net of cancellations)[SUP]1,2[/SUP]
Stats by Region
* Note: large spike in China in August 2015 is due to first update since Nov 2014.
Disclaimers:
Footnotes:
1. Estimated 19,500 net reservations as of Dec 31, 2014 as per Q4 report of having "almost 20,000" on the books. Result:19,500 out of 23,643 = ~ 17.52% up to this date are likely cancelled.
2. Estimated Cancellations after December 31, 2014, currently estimated at 20/month
32,618 Global Tally Total / 28,295 Estimated Total (net of cancellations)[SUP]1,2[/SUP]
| September 2015 | Rolling Averages | Lifetime Averages |
1,423 (47.4 per day)
|
|
|
Stats by Region
| Region | Tally on Sep 30 | Tally on Aug 31 | Tally on Jul 31 | Tally on Jun 30 | Tally on May 31 | Tally on Apr 30 | Sep per Day | Aug per Day | Jul per Day | Jun per Day | May per Day | Apr per Day | Lifetime Average Per Day | Lifetime Average Per Month | ||
| Canada | 1,399 | 1,346 | 1,237 | 1,237 | 1,139 | 1,016 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 32.0 | ||
| US | 22,638 | 21,574 | 20,792 | 19,851 | 19,171 | 18,494 | 35.5 | 25.2 | 30.4 | 22.7 | 21.8 | 19.3 | 17.0 | 518.1 | ||
| European | 5,008 | 4,807 | 4,627 | 4,375 | 4,305 | 4,182 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 114.6 | ||
| Asia Pacific | 3,573 | 3,468 | 2,809 | 2,778 | 2,778 | 2,768 | 3.5 | 21.3[SUP]*[/SUP] | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 81.8 | ||
| Global | 32,618 | 31,195 | 29,465 | 28,241 | 27,393 | 26,460 | 44.8 | 55.8 | 39.5 | 28.3 | 30.1 | 23.3 | 24.5 | 746.5 | ||
Estimated Cancellations[SUP]1[/SUP] | 4,323 | 4,303 | 4,283 | 4,263 | 4,243 | 4,223 | ||||||||||
| Estimated Totals[SUP]2[/SUP] | 28,295 | 26,892 | 25,182 | 23,978 | 23,150 | 22,237 |
Disclaimers:
- This collection of the numbers is gathered from posts by members on various threads and other forums. Please note: these aren't official numbers, and are to be taken with a grain of salt. Do not rely upon the total of production + signature numbers in any way as those who have upgraded from a production reservation to a signature reservation have been counted twice. Cancellations after December 31 are guesstimates.
- North America: Signatures assumed sold out as of March 26, 2014 and perhaps limited to 1,200. (Perhaps 1150 USA and 50 Canadian)
- Europe: Signatures assumed sold out as of November 10, 2014 and perhaps limited to 500.
Footnotes:
1. Estimated 19,500 net reservations as of Dec 31, 2014 as per Q4 report of having "almost 20,000" on the books. Result:19,500 out of 23,643 = ~ 17.52% up to this date are likely cancelled.
2. Estimated Cancellations after December 31, 2014, currently estimated at 20/month
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There are reports of Elon stating they have between 20k and 25k reservations right now. How should we square this with an estimated net of 28k? Is the cancellation rate higher than we think?
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Well, it was always an estimate. Plus Musk said there was an uptick in Model S sales, so it's conceivable that some have canceled in favor of Model Ss.
Hopefully the issue will get resolved and the numbers will be displayed again. There's a work around where people can still see it in the web page source code. If so, I'll continue to do this until the reservations stop and people can just place orders.
Until the number is officially announced or enough data to see this trend has been there all along, I thought changing the reporting would not be prudent.
But trying to square the numbers. With the 25k recently reported, if accurate and using the high end of it, then the overall cancellation rate maybe off by at least 5.65% since inception to explain the 3k difference. Could mean older reservations have been cancelling at even a much higher rate, giving the growth of new monthly reservations seem to be steadily increasing month over month. But I'm doubtful about that.
Once we get some official numbers, I will square it up. For now here's how it looks with percentages if that's up to date. Perhaps this 25k reported data could have been a month, two months or my guess a quarter old. A quarter old would fit the current estimates. (23,978 last quarter estimated net sits well in that 20-25k range).
| A | B | (A-B)/A | C | (A-C)/A | |
| Tally | Est. Net | Difference | Reports | Difference | |
| Sep 30, 2015 | 32,538 | 28,215 | 13.30% | ~25,000 | 23.17% |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 23,643 | 19,500 | 17.52% | ~20,000 | 15.41% |
| 9 Monthly Increase | 8,895 | 8,715 | 2.02% | ~5,000 | 43.79% |
| Per Month Increase | 988 | 968 | 556 |
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The work around works for people who were previously assigned a sequence number that appeared on the page, but I've heard at least one report from newer reservations that the sequence number doesn't appear at all on their page, even in the comments. Until someone with a newer reservation provides a number, I think we have to assume Tesla simply isn't assigning them publicly anymore and thus hid them for everyone.
Yes seen that too. I've emailed a few recent reservation holders to help validate that this morning. Will let you know how that goes.
That 12k number seems to be from a year ago at least, so an existing one as you said.
I do that regularly!
don't sweat it. So I got a 3rd indication that it's no longer in the source. I'll keep an eye on it to see if we suddenly get it back.I do that regularly!
Nope, I do not have "vin_sn" in the source code.
That's fair.
My educated guess : we've estimated 20 cancellations per month since december. That's less than 0.1% which I think is an underestimation given than overall cancellation percentages are two orders of magnitudes larger. Another data point is that US sig cancellations are likely up to 40% (1000->1400) This could hint that as reservations get older, they are much more likely to be cancelled (but the sig reservations are sufficiently different from regular ones that I agree drawing conclusions on one based on the other is suspect at best)
This seems to be a number Elon would like to be on top off? He's quick to take to twitter with sales/order updates after major events. Ie, only a day after the reveal he was telling us we got a bump. I think he gets a very regular update from his sales VP on these things.
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