Model X Tally

[Paul Carter]

That's fair.



My educated guess : we've estimated 20 cancellations per month since december. That's less than 0.1% which I think is an underestimation given than overall cancellation percentages are two orders of magnitudes larger. Another data point is that US sig cancellations are likely up to 40% (1000->1400) This could hint that as reservations get older, they are much more likely to be cancelled (but the sig reservations are sufficiently different from regular ones that I agree drawing conclusions on one based on the other is suspect at best)



This seems to be a number Elon would like to be on top off? He's quick to take to twitter with sales/order updates after major events. Ie, only a day after the reveal he was telling us we got a bump. I think he gets a very regular update from his sales VP on these things.

re: cancellation rate I would need more data to have enough data to extrapolate a new rate. That might come within the next month or so, or if Tesla gives another estimated number at a quarter or annual report even better.

Agree he is likely to be on top of the numbers, but we don't know for sure, so will wait for some better data. The signature cancellations rate was already factored in for up to Dec 31, 2014. I'm not using any of the higher signature sequence numbers since then in my stats as we know its just people filling those cancellation slots. So avoiding double counting those (albeit still a small numbers).

 

[brandeeno]

I reserved a model X this morning. Very excited, but per the above, I cannot find a sequence number, so I don't of anything to provide to assist with the counting

 

[Paul Carter]

I reserved a model X this morning. Very excited, but per the above, I cannot find a sequence number, so I don't of anything to provide to assist with the counting

Congrats! I have a tracker application, see my signature below for a link. Feel free to register and add yours. At least we can get some stat data, and perhaps be able to do some reporting on reservations, but likely not like the tally tables and graphs in the past. Going forward it'll be more about tracking orders and deliveries. Hopefully producing some charts on production and delivery timings.

 

[leh22a]

Interesting article released today:

Tesla Q3 Ahead: Model X Is For Expenses, S For Sales - Investors.com

If I'm reading it right, they indicate that X reservations are weak after the launch. I wonder how accurate it is regarding the model X reservations?

"Checks indicate that Model X reservations are soft, while Model S demand has picked up since the X launched," Erickson wrote in a research report Wednesday. "Unchanged Model S lead times imply production is rising, which we believe is critical to meet a high bar in Q4"

And if it is true, does this mean the model X will not be as successful as the model S? Or was the S reservation ramp slow as well until consumers were able to test drive and sit in one? Or is it because all those crazy enough to put money down on a car they've never seen have already done so? Or is this article quack? Thoughts?

 

[gavine]

Reservations might be slow because the media has everyone believing that the X starts at $132K. $132K is loaded (without Ludicrous). Once we get through the signatures and the general public starts to realize that the X will actually start at $75K, reservations will increase again.

 

[schonelucht]

^^ That's really the fault of Tesla. They had an event where they would 'reveal it all' but failed to reveal the most important thing, ie the price. It's a bit too easy to blame the media for reporting the only price related data point they have.

 

[Blip]

^^ That's really the fault of Tesla. They had an event where they would 'reveal it all' but failed to reveal the most important thing, ie the price. It's a bit too easy to blame the media for reporting the only price related data point they have.

The price is revealed... on Twitter. "Media" should be aware of this.
Twitter

 

[gavine]

The price is revealed... on Twitter. "Media" should be aware of this.
Twitter

I agree that it was made clear on Twitter, however, the media didn't pay attention to that. Here's a couple of many articles where the media got it wrong:

"The Model X 90D starts for $132,000 and goes 257 miles on a charge, the more acceleration-friendly P90D will cost you $142,000 and cover 250 miles."
source: http://www.wired.com/2015/09/tesla-model-x-suv-reveal-specs-price/

And here's an article that talks specifically about the confusion over the starting price:

Tesla Model X starting price might be $40k less than reported | Motor Junkies

This was a big mistake by Tesla in my opinion. Even though the non-Signatures weren't announced/released yet, they should have still said "starting at $75k". All businesses always quote the lowest "from" price. Have you ever walked-into a car dealer and left with a car for $399/mo as advertised? It's always at least $100 more per month.



Not to mention, all of my friends, co-workers and family called me after the announcement to bust on me for putting a deposit down on a $132,000 vehicle.

 

[yesup]

I agree that it was made clear on Twitte... Even though the non-Signatures weren't announced/released yet, they should have still said "starting at $75k".

But that's the thing, the tweet was not really very clear, especially the similarly configured part.
And no, it will not start at $75k, at least not another year.

If you use a 85D Model S + 90D upgrade + All wheel drive + 7 seats + $5,000, then you could be looking at a starting price of $96k; at least for the first year.

 

[gavine]

But that's the thing, the tweet was not really very clear, especially the similarly configured part.
And no, it will not start at $75k, at least not another year.

If you use a 85D Model S + 90D upgrade + All wheel drive + 7 seats + $5,000, then you could be looking at a starting price of $96k; at least for the first year.

Still a lot less than $132K. Also, the wait on new reservations is about a year anyway so the $75K option might be out by then and, if advertised, Tesla would get more reservations and less people buying something else in the meantime. Gotta take these people off the street.

 

[MrBoylan]

But that's the thing, the tweet was not really very clear, especially the similarly configured part.
And no, it will not start at $75k, at least not another year.

If you use a 85D Model S + 90D upgrade + All wheel drive + 7 seats + $5,000, then you could be looking at a starting price of $96k; at least for the first year.

All wheel drive is not optional nor is the third row of seats, so we shouldn't assume that these will add more to the price. Musk said "+5K" knowing that the base Model X would be dual motor drive with 7 seats. So the base price of the 90D Model X should be the base price of the Model S 90D ($88K) plus $5K = $93K.

-CB

(and yes, the fact that even we can't agree on what the base price is says something).

 

[gavine]

Do we know for a fact that a RWD Model X isn't going to be offered? AWD is optional on many SUV's on the market. My wife drives a FWD GMC Acadia.

I predict that Tesla will offer the Model X with RWD. It would sell well where AWD isn't necessary. This will lower the starting cost down to $75K (base S70 starts at $70K) and it will also presumably have a larger frunk. If they offered RWD Model X, that's what I would get personally, even though I live in NJ where it snows. My RWD Model S does just fine in the snow.

By the way, this also assumes that the X will be offered with 70kWh battery.

 

[timf]

It's highly unlikely they will offer Model X in RWD. Tesla originally announced the intention of offering Model X in both RWD and AWD configuration, but about a year or so after the reveal announced the decision to make it AWD only. This means they likely engineered Model X exclusively for AWD, and making a RWD version would be more complicated than simply swapping out a RWD Model S chassis for the AWD one and not be worth the effort.

 

[MrBoylan]

Do we know for a fact that a RWD Model X isn't going to be offered?

Since 2013, Musk has been saying AWD only for the Model X. Here's an article from 2013 with a link to Musk speaking at the opening of the Tesla store in London.

Elon Musk: Tesla Model X Will Be AWD Only (w/video) | Inside EVs

“The Model X’s price will be very similar to the Model S. It might be slightly higher, but… I can’t imagine that it will be… It’s probably going to be a slightly higher starting price because the Model X will only be offered as all-wheel drive. It will be dual motor, all-wheel drive.”

Later tweets/announcements said there would be a small (single digit) pricing premium over the Model S. But they've said for some time that it will be Dual Motor/All Wheel Drive only. Will they change that at some point in the future? Possibly but not for the foreseeable future.

-CB

 

[schonelucht]

I agree that it was made clear on Twitter

Right after your post came 4 others each with different questions and interpretations of that quote. So much for 'it was made clear'.

 

[Paul Carter]

Just a reminder that since the Model X launch on September 29, we no longer have any Sequence Numbers to track for this Tally. Thus I won't be producing the Tally Stats and Graphs for October and going forward.

Time to switch over to order, ramp, production, and delivery analysis which there are already existing threads for them.

Ah... the end of the era, but looking forward to seeing the start of the new era of watching the Model X global rollout!

 

[Zaxxon]

Thanks for your efforts, Paul!

 

[BillC]

Just a reminder that since the Model X launch on September 29, we no longer have any Sequence Numbers to track for this Tally. Thus I won't be producing the Tally Stats and Graphs for October and going forward.

Time to switch over to order, ramp, production, and delivery analysis which there are already existing threads for them.

Ah... the end of the era, but looking forward to seeing the start of the new era of watching the Model X global rollout!

Paul: We're sequence # 435 and just got our vin # 00674. Assume some Founders cars are rolling out ahead of us.

 

[andrewket]

Paul: We're sequence # 435 and just got our vin # 00674. Assume some Founders cars are rolling out ahead of us.

Founders cars have a different VIN prefix. What you're seeing is caused by batching.

 

[scottf200]

Paul: We're sequence # 435 and just got our vin # 00674. Assume some Founders cars are rolling out ahead of us.

Q: How do I decode my VIN? - Tesla Motors Wiki
Image: http://i.imgur.com/4GGy2Qd.png