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Model X Timeline - From Prototype to Production

Discussion in 'Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by bonnie, Mar 7, 2013.

  1. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    I thought I'd start a thread where we can start capturing the rumors and facts regarding Model X dates. From today's SEC Form 10-K / Annual Report (emphasis mine):

     
  2. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    I could swear 2015 was mentioned in the Norway talk. Maybe that jives though with beginning production in 2014, but actually delivering in 2015. I'm not sure what the legal definition is for "production", perhaps building crash test cars suffices.
     
  3. RDoc

    RDoc S85D

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    LATE 2014!!! :scared:
     
  4. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    Yes, he definitely said 2015 in the Norway talk. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they've eased off the pace on engineering a little, to help bring the company to profitability. Or maybe just to keep their people from going insane...
     
  5. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    Yes Elon did mention 2015 but I believe (hope) that he was referring to the availability of the Model X in Europe not the US. Just like the Model S. Available in the US in 2012 but not in Europe until 2013.
     
  6. MikeL

    MikeL some guy

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    Might need that long to scrounge up $90k. :rolleyes:

    The lic plates were $58.00, a bargain!
     
  7. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Wow, pushed back again. Hopefully they get it right, but what's that mean for g3? 2016-17?
     
  8. goneskiian

    goneskiian Active Member

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    That's how I interpreted that comment too.

    I haven't read through the 10K yet. Thanks for sharing Bonnie. I don't know if I can wait that long though! Might have to get an S to tide me over. ;)

    Definitely sounds like they're pulling back a bit to make sure they get profitable. Not a bad thing, just frustrating for those of us looking forward to future products like the X and Gen III.
     
  9. felixtb

    felixtb RsEU502,Sp+14274,XpEUSig4

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    Bonnie,

    Good idea with the copyright wording! Hope you don't mind if I copy you on this one :) (seriously)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Both are quite a big departure from the original end of 2013 deliveries for the US....... BUt I figured this would happen so I reserved an S last fall, to hold me over until I finally get the Model X
     
  10. RDoc

    RDoc S85D

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    If they aren't starting production till late 2014, it sounds like there might be a few Signature deliveries in the US at the end of 2014, but production won't really get going till 1st quarter 2015 at the earliest. For Europe, it might be late 2015 although, since Tesla will have a whole import and support system up an running in Europe by then, it might not be as big a gap as with the S.
     
  11. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    This is a delay from when I put my deposit down - I believe the wording then was 'deliveries begin in 2013, with significant production in 2014', which I took to mean Founders. I'd mentally thought 'late summer 2014', so this isn't that much more.

    Upside? I have that much longer to decide if I keep my Roadster or not. I change my mind daily on that. :)
     
  12. JRod0802

    JRod0802 Member

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    Elon announced in January that G3 would be 3-4 years away. So I guess that means January 2016 - January 2017. I guessing with the X not shipping until early 2015, G3 probably would be at the end of that time frame. My personal guess is mid-2017 because Elon is always wrong when it comes to timing.

    But who knows. Maybe suppliers will now take Tesla seriously, maybe they learned all the lessons they needed to learn about tooling a factory and producing a car, maybe they're further ahead than we think with designing the G3, and maybe it'll actually be mid-2016. It's possible.
     
  13. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Possible, but doubtful. I think tesla is still running thin and right now are focused on profitability.
     
  14. ElSupreme

    ElSupreme Model S 03182

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    I think the delay for Model X is two fold.

    I think Tesla is going to do extended (months) testing on factory produced units BEFORE they start shipping. I think they are taking big financial hits fixing Model Ss in the field. I think they were forced to ship Model Ss, to start generating income, where they will not be forced to ship Model X for the same reasons. Not being forced to ship will allow the Model X to be a much more finished vehicle when it is first shipped. Hopefully something close to a Ford, GM, Nissan in initial quality.

    I also think Tesla has MORE demand for the Model S than they had projected. The Model X will use the same assembly line, and thus would interfere (not necessarily decrease) with Model S production. If they have a steady demand for 25,000 Model Ss, and still have a wait list, why push the next product out earlier than it has to be?

    I agree there is a 'first mover' or 'firs to market' advantage. But I think that time window is closing fast. Tesla has obviously put itself into the 'first mover' category. And is the ONLY one to do it in the non-econobox market. They were first with large car, first for performance, first for long range, first for luxury, first for looks, first for just about everything. I don't think anyone can make an EV without it being compared to a Tesla. They got 'first mover' advantage. No need to rush more stuff out. The only exception is they need to have a small car out before others get a second generation small car established in the market.
     
  15. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

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    And since your long on Tesla Stock maybe the delay will mean the stock will be worth that much more. Then you can keep both:smile:
     
  16. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    Don't forget that if a company puts any statement like that in their 10k they are really going to play it ultra-conservative because it's a forward looking statement. Tesla would be crazy to state anything optimistic.

    I put down my deposit expecting summer 2014 and I suspect that it'll be fall in the worst case. I'm fine with that, like Bonnie I'll have a hard time giving up my Roadster.
     
  17. felixtb

    felixtb RsEU502,Sp+14274,XpEUSig4

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    I the end I guess we'll get our Xs when we get them. I am sure we will be very happy when this happens. :)
     
  18. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    As long as there are plenty of S reservations in the queue, that's where Tesla's focus should remain. Make cars & deliver. They do need to add the X production line in order to keep the market happy, but until Model S production/deliveries are all running smooth with production costs stable, don't add the X. (And I say that as a Sig reservation holder.)

    Practically every advance they make on Model S will translate to the Model X. That's good news for me, even if I have to wait longer.
     
  19. herbvdh

    herbvdh Member

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    I just read somewhere recently that tesla will be profitable this quarter which I tend to believe as they also announced the government loan will be paid off in 5 years.

    The Model X was originally to have a few built in 2013 with full start up in 2014. I do not think Tesla thought the Model X demand would be so high as it is running now. I recall the Model X was slated to be a lower production than the Model S. The last I heard reservations on the X are running about 10 a day.
     
  20. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

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    Blankenship was quoted recently saying 2017 for G3
     

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